Dan, you're right. I'll change my comment then to we haven't won when I've watched us this season - I was at a work social event when we played Fulham, but saw all the others including being at the home game against Wolves on Boxing Day.
Predictions are futile ! I was sure we would have to finish above 1 of Derby or boro to go up. If Derby carry on as they have over the last 5 or 7 games, they'll be 8th. Can't see it but it seems that injuries can be a devil at his stage. Anyway, looking at the current positions, and the form over the last 7, yes WFC have the best form. 16 points. In fact it is... WFC 16 Bournemouth 14 Norwich 14 Boro 12 Ipswich 10 Derby 5 However, perhaps we should look at the difficulty of the last 7 matches for each team i.e. where in the league was each team that was played against. As I'm doing this manually, it is really hard using the current position when the games were played, so I'll use their position now i.e. after Sat. WFC have had the easiest fixtures by far. The average position of the 7 teams faced by each of the top 6 in their last 7 games - using the positions after 21/3 is Ipswich 8.5 - hardest Boro 10.5 Derby 11 Norwich 12.5 Bournemouth 12.5 WFC 15.5 Derby appear to be falling off a cliff in terms of points gained against difficulty. Otherwise, the points gained pretty much reflect the difficulty levels - i.e. easier the games, the more points gained. Looking at the difficulty of the final 7 games for each of the top 6 teams, then... guess what, unfortunately WFC have the HARDEST run in and derby have the easiest. The total position count of all the opposition teams to be played by the top 6 (7 games) is... WFC 83 Ipswich 84 Bournemouth 90 Boro 93 Norwich 102 Derby 115 After easter - with 5 games to go , it evens up a bit. So, IF we can conjure up 4 points over Easter (minimum I think) then the run - ins are pretty much even (average position 13...15 for all 5 except for derby at 18- the easiest but unless they wake up they will miss the playoffs!) If the difficulty level is reflected in the points gained, we will not finish in the top 2 - it will be bournemouth & boro ! The glimmer of hope for us is that after Easter we have 4 teams with nothing to play for + Millwall. whereas Boro have Rotherham and Fulham - both in trouble, and Wolves and norwich -both desperate to get into top 6 or top 2. Bournemourth have a serene run in, Ipswich at easter + 6 clubs in lower reaches but not in trouble. Perfect ! If they don't go up, they will really have messed up. Good luck to them too! Finally.....assuming we get the same points in last 7 as in previous 7, in which case we will have earned promotion, the final outcome is... WFC 88 bournemouth 87 boro 84 Norwich 84 Ipswich 77 Derby 72 The Times' highly sophisticated prediction team - run by Danny Finkelstein ( the FinkTank appatently ??) gave us a 60% chance of automatic promotion, and 99% chance of playoffs or promotion. It is based on season so far, and apparently uses shot count as well as goals and other stuff. (I wonder what Saturdays performance levels did to the stats?!) That's enough for now - it's only a game after all (No it bl--dy well isn't !)
A class thread bodbo all you say is v true and our backs is against the wall . so we all think we are going to blow it BUT the two things that is not that easy to convert to pts is the strength of our squad .we never know when we are beaten apart from sat lol .its a big ask but 4 points from the next two will put us back on track
Yes, and three other things that cheer me up. 1) It is in our hands, along with bournemouth and Boro. If we can draw with Derby & beat boro (we finished stronger against them at riverside -in a 1-1) then only us and bournemouth can control our destiny. ( deenisteny!) 2) Mccarthy was overjoyed at beating us, Why ? Although we don't feel it, I think most other clubs fear us. If we can get through Easter unscathed (i.e. still in top 2 places) then the fact that we mostly beat clubs below us - whereas the rest are more patchy - will count in our favour. 3) We do have a strong squad - which should manifest itself with 6 games in april. Still - loving the ride!
after what bodbo said i have look at who has to play there last 7 games against the form teams we have derby in there last 6 games just 2 pts and the list is as follows derby 115 total postion of the 7 teams in the form of the last 6 games watford 103 " " " " " " " " " " " " bour 94 " " " " " " " " " " " " norwich 93 " " " " " " " " " " " " ipswich 77 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' midd 72 " " " " " " " " " " " " so with derby having to play the teams that are not in form but they have to make 5 pts on us and 6 pts on bour i dont see them getting the top 2 slots that would leave it to us bour and norwich
Its now down to the top 4 teams fighting for the top 2 slots if we look at the form of the last 6 games midd 12 bourn 12 us 11 norwich 11 midd current away record is not good and they have to play away at us and norwich boun look strong with the addition k jones and most of there games are against mid table teams so its us or norwich for the last place . norwich run in looks better than ours we can do it by beating midd on monday COYH
Middlesbrough has become a must win for us to finish in the top two - and even then it will be tight. They and Bournemouth have to be in the driving seat now with us and Norwich about equal -but they have superior goal difference. You have to say though that if we cannot beat Middlesbrough then do we deserve to go up? We beat Brentford twice but apart from that have 4 draws and 7 defeats against the other top 6 sides. That is not the pedigree of a tean hoping to play even better teams next year.
Its a big ask but 4 wins and a draw will poss be ok as long as we beat middlesbrough if we only draw with them then we would have to win the last 5 games to get in front of the other teams lose then its the play-offs at best
Everyone and their dog has been analysing our form against the top 7 - and it doesn't look pretty. However, it doesn't look so bad if you consider how some of the results were arrived at. Bournemouth away - ruined by ref. Ipswich - last minute or two BOTH TIMES - either or both should have been draws and 1 win 1 defeat would have been fair. Norwich away - self inflicted if Ekstrand deserved to be sent off, ruined by ref otherwise. Norwich at home - cheated out of it, though they are a decent side. That leaves Boro - we finished the stronger team when drawing at their place. Ditto Wolves away. Of course, if we keep on getting men sent off we are not going anywhere, but if that malaise is stopped, then I think it's us & 1 of Bournemouth/Naarwich. boro have too many hard games, and might just mess up Naarwich for us. I'll be pleased when it's back in our own hands.
i think we have only been beaten twice(ipswich and hudderfeild ) this year with out a sending off or a penalty
This is unpredictable, face it!!!! How many reds can´t be deserved?? Xman at Norwich was a blatant elbow man. No one has a scooby who will go up and that is why it is gripping! Anyone of the top 8 could get top 2. Anyways, for once, I have a prediction, we are safe now! So, next season in the champ is guaranteed,
Its true that nothing in life is guaranteed if we look at what the best odds at the bookmakers of the top 4 the other 3 are odds on to get promoted we are even money the last 4 go from 3 to 9 to go up and if you think wolves could get in the top 2 then its 40 to 1
Someone just put this up on the Norwich board! Rather neat! http://www.leagueslider.com/championship-2014-15
If you join the dots up and move Watford forwards a little bit (i.e. into 1st place!) you can make a reasonable map of the UK
On 23rd March I predicted WFC 88 bournemouth 87 boro 84 Norwich 84 Ipswich 77 Derby 72 I'm not sure why I omitted wolves, and I can't now see Ipswich finishing 5 points above Derby - or derby finishing on only 72. Still, if we take the form over last 5 games, and add it to current points, we get... bournemouth 88 Norwich 87 WFC 86 boro 84 wolves 84 Brentford 78 Ipswich 75 Derby 76 That's my head talking ! Now, since the result at home to Ipswich was a total aberration, we should have 1 point more, and therefore will get 1 point more. So, 88. I actually believe we will get 12 points from the last 5, and expect Boro to do a better job at carrow road than they managed against us. I think bournemouth could wobble ( they surely cannot keep taking their own referee to games) . Wolves will be stalled by having to play boro away and brum away - and ipswich at home. Not a nice combination. Boro will just be plain exhausted having to play rotherham, Naarwich, and wolves, and Ipswich don't have the squad. Derby could make a run, but have probably left it too late. Anyway -rambles over - we'll go up with Naarwich unless Naarwich come a cropper in their next 2 games, and still have to face boro, in which case it will be us and bournemouth.
Only 3 teams of the 92 have won there last 5 games (none in our div) so its fair to think that only 1 team will do it, So if we draw one and win the other 4 games 2ond place is ours current form is very important (midd on the down derby on the up) how strong is the opposition, There form and how well do they play against you so nott forest got a draw at out place and home advantage is worth 1 goal so on paper they should beat us by a small amount any top 8 side playing anther top 8 side then i put it down for a draw any team that not top 8 and has to go to a top 8 side then the advantage is more like 2 goals from the game they played early in the year the final table would look like this bour 77 + 6pts home + 5pts away total = 88 midd 75 + 7pts home +4pts away total = 86 wfc 76 + 6 pts home +3 pts away total=85 norw 76+ 4pts home +1pts away total = 81 derb 71+ 9ptshome +1pts away total =81 ips 68+7pts home + 1 pts away total=76 wol 71 +4pts home + 1 away total = 76 bre 70 + 4 pts home = 1 away total =75 der midd and ips all have 3 home games all good fun and it looks like going down to the last game of the season
Why have Middlesborough got two teams in the top two? Edit, I've just realized you mean Bournemouth, not Borough
