I did a thread recently saying that the next 3 games were key and that the game by game thing is not how we need to look at it. Ok so we won the first of the 3 but if we can win against Arsenal and City we will have a genuine chance of fourth if we lose or draw either game then I don't think we have a chance.
If we win both then we will have made some serious strides but it is still not enough as MITO highlights above. If we somehow win both then we seriously need to find consistency for the rest of the season and we would absolutely need to beat Everton and Tottenham too, not so much Chelsea as they're not the competition for fourth IMO but obviously it would help. Can't see us winning all the other ten games though, never mind these four/five
Getting a result against Arsenal, Everton & Tottenham is of paramount importance because those are the teams above us that we need to displace to entertain any notion of a CL place. These are all 6 pointers. In many ways it's good we've got Arsenal next - beat them and we'll leapfrog them into 6th place and set about reining in Everton.
I think winning the next 2 PL games will give the players the belief they need to find that consistancy and that will enable us to go the kind of run of 10+ games that we need in order to get fourth.
I think the horrible fact is that we haven't won 3 back-to-back games in the EPL for a few seasons. Not only does this have to change, it has to change drastically. Luckily for us, we're competing in a sport where that is very possible
There's many a twist left in this season. Even up to 3rd, there isn't a club who can look at the matches left with any great certainty and that makes all of those point calculations irrelevant. Having said that, if we can take 7 points from Arsenal, Everton and Spurs we will have gone a long way towrds achieveing 4th.
re gerrez and magic. 1. Gerrez posted my calculation precisely. I like to break it into gorups of 4 games. so its nice and easy to udnerstand. 2.4 points per game is like 9/6 points out of 12 or 10 points out of 12... that means either 4th is taken by much fewer points or we win 3 and draw 1 for all of the remainder of the season. this si why i said before chrsitmas that 6 point sout of 12 was the best i saw us coming out of utd, norwich, arsenal and city... If we beat arsenal i think we will have 6. Can't see us doing over city yet. 2. magic is right as stranger things have indeed happened. If we were talking about team no 1 and no 2 in the league then i would be saying that if you are with 6 points with 10 games to go its on... right now we are 7 off with 15 to go... but thats off 4th. that suggest our season has already been very inconsistent doesn't it? now what's changed? tactics? formation? a new strike partnership? gerrard getting fitter? lucas and henderson doing his running? Perhaps all of these. Sure if we ignore winnig the next two and instead make it we'll match spurs next two results somehow and come out 7 points way with 13 to go you have to start thinking a wee push might just come off. however while spurs have 2 away days its norwich and west brom and no matter what west brom have been doing i think we can still be thinking 4 or 6 points out of 6... thus we come upon the nub of the issue. Its more likely we will fall too far behind by the time our easier fixtures arrive. west brom H Swansea H Wigan A Tottenham H this will be a nice set of 4 games to look at. We owe all 4 a good thrashing IMO. I'd predict 7 points here. Southampton (a) villa (a) west ham (H) Reading (a) Very winnable games but 3 are away. I could see 9points here with one game sapre that we could pick up more. Chelsea H Newcastle A Everton H Fulham a Again where do we see the 9 pounts of f these games.. everton will be a cup tie, newcastle are so far in the mire now its a relegation fight but we owe them form last year... big time... and fulham won't be bothered last day. then rafa comes to anfield.. that'll be interesting I think 7 out of 12 here. 7+7+9 = 23 add 34 and we get to 57 points. so this means the city and arsenal games take on extra meaning. we've got to beat two top 4 clubs just to get to 63points... then pick up even more points than predicted say those 7's become nines.. that'll push us to 67 points. but you know... its down to those clubs above us Chelsea 23 45 Tottenham 23 41 Everton 22 37 Arsenal 22 34 Liverpool 23 34 i think chelsea have too much about them even if RA goes mad again. I can't see them not being 3rd or even better if they improve a bit. that leaves 4th and spurs, and everton and even arsenal... Spurs did implode last year. one injury to defoe and they could be in serious trouble. on the other hand there's everton who've been reasonably consistent but conceeding a few more than i thought they would. They could be on 40 points by tomorrow....
