It could happen anywhere Ides, that's the lesson of history. Pray God it doesn't.
Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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It could happen anywhere Ides, that's the lesson of history. Pray God it doesn't.
And if Labour reverted to their working class policies and regained their heartland voters from UKIP? Would that then make the country veer left? Labour need to wake up and realise that "left" people are voting UKIP. This left right nonsense needs to stop and people need to start to look at things for what they are. The only way to stop UKIP in the heartlands is for Labour to stop their Neo-Lib stance that the Blairites are pushing on. It is those Blairites that are about to destroy the Labour party for good.
They have spent the past year chuckling to themselves at some deep divide destroying the Tory party when the reality there is like I have told people for over a year on political sites that the Tory party only need to silence a small few centrists that include Cameron and Osborne. They will return to their roots with ease and there will be minimal damage. It was always going to be the result Leave or remain that they would oust Cameron and his centrists.
Labour is in a deep hole because Blair filled the ranks with centrists and Labour has no chance to return to its roots and thus will hand their heartlands to UKIP on a plate and they still do not realise this. They are now fighting to make it full on centrist and demanding an early GE. Get ready for loads of purple in the commons. This is going to be a disaster for everybody and nothing to do with leave/remain. This has been in the making for the past decade because these centrists do not listen nor understand anything outside of Westminster.
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The country was already split down the middle. Having the referendum now was the only chance to stop UKIP gaining and Labour should have woken up to what their traditional voters were thinking and grasped this opportunity to save us all from UKIP.
People are in denial here and thinking that if we hadn't had a referendum things would be rosy but that is very naive. If the Tories had not offered that referendum Labour would have lost a whole swathe of their heartlands as many people would have voted UKIP instead of Tory and those 2nd places would have been wins.
they should have realised this and not chirped on about Tory voters voting UKIP. If they don't realise this soon you will see an extreme party in disguise take over very quickly just like has happened in Scotland. Blair and his centrists have a lot to answer for here and people need to see that this all started a long long time ago.
These centrists handed Scotland on a plate to SNP (who are not what they advertise themselves as) by ignoring their roots up there and the exact same thing is happening now in England. It is not because of the referendum. The referendum slowed the advance down and should have been a chance to stop it entirely but the way the Labour Centrists are now going on I fear for the future because these heartlands will vote UKIP in droves. They do not see that they are further right than Thatcher's government. They just see that they seem to listen to them and represent them when centrists don't.
If we look at the history books, parties have come, evolved, changed and all but disappeared. Labour could well disintegrate in its present form. The one constant is the Tory/Conservative Party who although have faced many a difficulty always come up smiling. If there was to be a GE in the spring with a new leader installed Tories might get a huge victory before the angst of Brexit/non Brexit kicks in, with UKIP hoovering up disaffected Labour voters in places like Bolton. Might only get a handful of new seats but would result in many a Labour seat going blue.
Most European countries that have done well after schisms and divides of countries have done it with Coalition governments. I think the time is right for one now. First we have to get rid of first past the post as a voting system.
The Tory right will not touch UKIP. They will not join up with them but they might have to join up with the old labour just to keep UKIP out. UKIP are much closer to breaking things open than many people think and the blairites are now providing them an open goal.
Yes it happened already in the UK....in Scotland and now the same is happening here. extremist parties hiding behind "acceptable" fascias.
And now Leanne Wood who backed remain is saying she wants an independent Wales...............and then goes on to say:
"It is my belief that this independent Wales in a completely different context to last week’s referendum would want to be a part of the European Union."
These politicians are playing games now and it is ludicrous. She is suggesting that Wales (who voted to leave) would want to vote to remain once they were independent. How does she fathom that one?
"It is my belief that this independent Wales in a completely different context to last week’s referendum would want to be a part of the European Union."
These politicians are playing games now and it is ludicrous. She is suggesting that Wales (who voted to leave) would want to vote to remain once they were independent. How does she fathom that one?
Wales gets an awful lot of EU support. They almost certainly will lose that money eventually.
But that is the problem. Wales receives lots of money but people want jobs, not shiny buildings and roads. Yes shiny buildings and roads are nice but people want the basics and farmers want to farm not be paid not to farm. Welsh people voted that way for the same reason as the English. Farm jobs and factory jobs are going to migrants.
People want jobs. It really is that simple and is the reason why Labour are losing votes across the country. What happened in Scotland will happen everywhere else if this continues.
People need to be very worried. I said UKIP would do well in 2020 if Labour couldn't fend them off in their traditional areas. Now Labour are in all out war they are handing those seats over and they are also fast tracking that 2020 where they want to have a GE this year.
If the Blairites manage to beat Corbyn and keep the Labour party brand name expect UKIP to become the opposition at the next GE. It really is that serious.
If the Blairites manage to beat Corbyn and keep the Labour party brand name expect UKIP to become the opposition at the next GE. It really is that serious.
So stop employing the migrants then. It's very simple. Thing is, of course, the Welsh don't apply for the jobs, do they. Because they are so badly paid.
So stop employing the migrants then. It's very simple. Thing is, of course, the Welsh don't apply for the jobs, do they. Because they are so badly paid.
That is what I have been saying. Give the people back the jobs they were removed from. They don't apply because they are agency jobs. agencies that employ directly from EU countries. This is what I have been saying since the beginning of this thread and why the leave vote was so huge. It is why traditional Labour areas are in danger because these are the areas where the jobs have been taken from British employees and given to agencies that employ migrants.
Wales is Labour heartland too. If Labour lose these heartlands they will only have 43 seats in London left at the next GE and that is if they can hold on to them all. UKIP won't win all of the other 180 and the Tories will top 400 seats because they will be regrouped within weeks and healthier than ever.
UKIP will heavily target Labour heartland seats next time because they know they are close to winning them.
But you're not getting it. In general, the Welsh are not applying for farm labouring jobs because the wages are so low. That's why the migrants are working there. Put in a proper minimum wage and the Welsh will apply for the jobs, and in most cases will no doubt get them.
Heh, you said a couple days ago that UKIP would never get more than 4m votes if Leave won.
**** 'em, then.
I do not see why the relatively light shackles of the EU should be cast aside to allow a failed steel or small farming industry with no future to control the country instead.
Especially if those people are voting UKIP otherwise. I don't comprise with racists.
It isn't that I'm not sympathetic, but the answer is to train people, attract investment and move into the 21st century. And I will harshly criticize any party that isn't trying to provide opportunities to the citizens of the country.
But this is some serious BS. "Do something for me or I vote for bunch of assholes." Go ahead. FTSE 250 is tanking. Your policy has NO CHANCE of working. So I have nothing to lose by not comprising.
That is the funny thing. People are like "I am already unemployed, etc. I have nothing to lose.". But if all you offer is a scorched Earth policy, then you put the other side in the same position.
I do not see why the relatively light shackles of the EU should be cast aside to allow a failed steel or small farming industry with no future to control the country instead.
Especially if those people are voting UKIP otherwise. I don't comprise with racists.
It isn't that I'm not sympathetic, but the answer is to train people, attract investment and move into the 21st century. And I will harshly criticize any party that isn't trying to provide opportunities to the citizens of the country.
But this is some serious BS. "Do something for me or I vote for bunch of assholes." Go ahead. FTSE 250 is tanking. Your policy has NO CHANCE of working. So I have nothing to lose by not comprising.
That is the funny thing. People are like "I am already unemployed, etc. I have nothing to lose.". But if all you offer is a scorched Earth policy, then you put the other side in the same position.
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No you are believing what the media are telling you. Big business farmers are saying it too. Welsh people were doing these jobs. They were poorly paid before. they lost these jobs. Many people are resentful in the UK not at people but because they lost their jobs when they did nothing wrong. They see EU policy losing them their jobs.
You are right that it shouldn't be that way and that freedom of movement should not be a problem but it is because employers saw the chance to reduce their labour costs and they took it. They are still taking it and they are doing it all legally with a nice cover story of "lazy Brits". Normal farmers are not but then they have few employees. not many at all. Big business agricultural farms, food processors and factories are the ones that made these decisions and are happy to say that the Brits won't do it when they facts are there. They were doing them, these aren't new jobs springing up from nowhere. they were doing them. they aren't now. It has nothing to do with Brits saying wages are so low. This is all a huge racket for business.
Blair underestimated the scale of it but he gave immediate full access to the EU thinking a nice steady flow of 30,000 or so would reduce costs for businesses and drive growth. It worked but he didn't estimate that so many would come and the reason they came was because employers jumped at the chance and employed direct from agencies based in Europe. People didn't come here hoping to get a job. They were promised work and housing when they applied to agencies in Europe and so huge numbers come here not hoping to get a job. They already have one before they leave their country.
My wife paid €500 to an agency in Portugal. For that she was guaranteed transport to Britain, a job and somewhere to live. She got on a coach in Portugal filled with other people that had paid their €500 and that coach travelled by road through Portugal, Spain and France, through the tunnel and they spent a night in a hostel rented by that agency.
The first morning in the UK they were seperated into different mini buses which then went to different areas of the Midlands and she was dropped off at her new home. A 3 bed house rented by her agency and shared bedrooms plus a shared lounge made into a bedroom. 8 people in that house. £60 a week all in which would be deducted from her weekly pay slip. She was working in my factory 3 days after leaving Portugal. She was still living in that house when we started "going out" so I have seen the inside of the housing situation there.
She was also deducted £30 a week for transport to the factory. 14 people x £25 for a 20 mile round trip in a minibus. She was deducted for uniform an safety boots and hi vis or any replacements that were needed.
This was happening and is still happening now. It is naive to think that British people can apply to get into these jobs. It is a closed shop. The agencies charge way less than British agencies charge because they undercut them heavily and then retrieve their profits in deductions. Migrants that live in Council houses down my street made deals with their agencies to pay them x amount in return for still getting work. The agencies are not charging the companies hourly rates that are realistic enough to cover NMW+employer NI+costs+profit.
It is a mistake to think people won't work because of low pay. They were working for low pay but higher than the NMW. Those companies got rid of their employees and went the agency route using migrant agencies and then the jobs were reduced to NMW from being higher than. There is no way for the British to get these jobs. These agencies have dummy branches in the UK so that they can comply with advertising these jobs in the UK.
People like me have been saying this for 10 years. People still do not believe it. Politicians are scared to admit it although Corbyn does allude to it he does not understand the vast scale of it and even what he does think he cannot openly state it. Remember Corbyn's opening EU speech where he added in there that we must tackle unscrupulous employers undercutting wages? Ed Milliband hinted at it too in his last weeks prior to the GE in 2015.
They know what has been happening but to admit it would mean to tell people of this country that the whole establishment has driven a story that dismissed people's very real experiences as lies and xenophobia when it wasn't.
We have not created 4 million extra jobs in that 12 year period. We have created some but not that many yet unemployment remains low because people are classed as employed on zero hour contracts or hidden away on schemes that do not count as unemployed or like me scrimping along self employed not making a week's wage and relying on the tax credits that come from that. There are over 5 million self employed in this country!!!! really?
You have to factor in that the ONS itself has stated that they estimate the real migration from the EU last year is not the 170k net but 260k net. They have stated that they think there is a huge under calculation of EU migrants entering the country. When the official figures taken from census say that there are 2 million EU born employed in this country there are official reports that suggest they think there are that many Polish workers alone and that the true figure is closer to 4m which is why I suggest that we have not created 4m extra jobs. I am talking here 4m more than 2004. The UK of course lost jobs and then created jobs during and after the crash and to this day.
This is what drove the boom!:
1) lowering the labour cost for employers. This is why domestically produced food prices have not risen much at all in 10 years. The reason we are in trouble is all the payments to British ex workers in terms of investment in courses and other vehicles that the government has utilised to keep numbers off unemployment lists.
2) Increase in housing prices. The market for cheaper houses even in the crash was immensely profitable. Houses are rented very quickly because there is a constant flow of renter coming in. These houses don't need extensive refurbs like they would if British people were to rent them. they are brought up to legal standards only. A lick of paint and then the agencies rent them to house their employees.
Big businesses of many sectors have been making a mint. Governments are happy to play along. It is irreversible. It isn't a conspiracy theory these are real people with real experiences and have not been keeping their experiences to themselves. You have seen multiple BBC and CH4 programs on this over the past decade and each time they paint it in a way to say it isn't true.
UKIPs rise and the high leave vote in the areas with farmland and factories is the result of this complete washover of real people's experiences as lies and bigotry.
People in these areas are asking why was my job not important when suddenly other people's are if we leave the EU? This is the problem and it is now causing chaos.
Like I said Blair has a lot to answer for and it isn't this referendum that is to blame. If anything this referendum was a chance to stop the rise of UKIP but it looks like the new Labour Blairites are too self absorbed to save their own seats fro UKIP.
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That was before the Labour party started to implode. Old Labour are the only party that can fight UKIP in those areas. They will not vote Tory.
Totally agree. Why are the politicians giving lip service to this training but making it harder to do? Why are they championing huge amounts of apprenticeships when the vast majority are not in real trades like apprentice shop assistant, apprentice barman etc? The apprenticeship scheme which sounds very noble and in some cases is working well, in many more cases is a way to pay below minimum wage without employing anyone at the end.
Why are bursaries being dispensed with if we want to train our own nurses.
They might talk about educating people out of poverty but the reality is that Blair/Brown & Cameron have used this as a tactic and use the numbers of apprenticeships etc to say Look how good we are doing on training. Yay more people off the unemployment list.
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I'm not getting it from the media at all. I'm getting it from a female friend who lives in rural South Wales who keeps an eye on that employment area. Otherwise I wouldn't comment. We have similar situations in rural employment points in Hampshire.