Off Topic Politics Thread

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San Tejón said:
I won’t be staying up for the results but I’m hoping to see a few short videos of Laura Kuenssberg reaching for the tissues as her beloved Conservative Party takes a beating.
Others will be reaching for the tissues for a different reason. <whistle><whistle><whistle>
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I’m surprised at that statement. Maybe I’ve missed? I thought she was just getting too big & it was all about her rather her actual job? Definitely could be wrong tho as she annoyed me so much I’ve stopped watching.
 
Puck said:
I'm not 100% sure on the tax proposal (given the state of our High Streets it seems a bit harsh to punitively tax people who try to rent out empty shops and can't) but there might be something in that.

You could possibly go further too. I've long said Thatcher had the core of a good idea with the right to buy council houses at a discounted rate. The problem is the money raised from those sales should have been used to build more social housing. I'm sure if you set the right to buy prices correctly you could create a virtuous circle with the government building houses, selling them on relatively cheaply and then building more houses. If done correctly the government could act to some extent as a stepping stool to help people onto the housing ladder.
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A refined system with exemptions not a one size fits all.
Local authorities were prevented from reinvesting in new stock I thing there was a heavy lobby by the construction industry.
 
Exit poll...

410 - LAB
131- CON
61 - LD
13 - REF
10 - SNP
4 - PD
2 - GRN

If accurate, Labour take office with 170-seat majority. Tories with their worst-ever GE result
 
Holy ****ing ****.

I feel slightly disappointment at a ****ing record, thats how outrageous this election has been!

By the way that massive reward for Ed Davey, I am so chuffed. A win for positive politics, rather than the negative ****e we always have to deal with.
 
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Yeah, that's a smaller majority than I expected.

I suspect the number of people who voted FOR the Lib Dems is dwarfed by the number of people who voted AGAINST the Conservatives.
 
Survation in the gutter a bit, they said 99% chance Labour would beat 1997, they are 8 off in the exit poll.

That said its well within the margin of error for them to still do it.
 
Shandy_top_89 said:
Wonder if there is some money to be made by going against the polls at this election, because based on nothing but gut feeling I feel the trends are probably right, but they are going so far beyond what I can imagine I just instinctively feel like it can't be right.

I feel like its going to be the following;

Labour landslide but not quite as far as being predicted.

Conservatives to have their record worst performance, but not by as far as expected.

Reform to do much worse than people think and probably only get Farage in, vote percentage will be in the area of UKIP in 2015 but they will get nerfed by FPTP again.

Lib Dems to get roughly the same amount of vote as last time, but it will be much more effective due to running a much more focused campaign and the extent of the Conservative vote drop.

SNP to drop but their vote to be more stubborn than people expect.

DUP to drop a couple of seats in NI, but other than that not much will change there.


GB

Lab 420

Con 135

LD 40

SNP 30

Plaid 3

Green 2

Reform 1

NI

SF 7

DUP 6

Alliance 2

SDLP 2

UUP 1

The fact those figures seem disappointing compared to the polls, but would still be the most extreme result in almost a century shows how crazy the shift has been over the last 5 years.
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Bit of self evaluation. Close with the top 2, but a bit all over the shop with the smaller parties.

Under estimated the Lib Dems and Reform.

Way overestimated the SNP.
 
Wow, I hadn't realised this but 13 MPs for Reform would be more than the Lib Dems got in 2019.
 
Saintjoey said:
I bet you reform have got more votes than Lib Dems
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If 13 MPs is close to accurate they must have.

Just seen an estimate it would mean about 9.5% for the Lib Dems and 17% for Reform.

Labour only 36%, Tories 26%. Very low percentages.
 
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