I was sent the following, by a friend. I don’t know who Nick Tolhurst is, but he has spent time in the foreign office and had strong views on the time Priti Patel had secret meetings in Israel.
“Nick Tolhurst has excellent sources inside government and is normally very well-informed. So his Twitter thread analysis of the current shambles makes for interesting reading...
---------------------------------
“So here’s what I think is happening inside Conservative party, Telegraph/Spectator bubble right now.
Whatever their views and whether soft or hard Tory, the penny’s dropped that Johnson is now going down in history as the PM that screwed up Coronavirus and cost thousands of lives.
As realisation dawns, no one thinks he can lead Tories into the next election - but he has 4.5 years still. What to do?
Problem: if Coronavirus 2nd wave is just as bad there’s logic to letting Boris stay; otherwise his successor gets tainted too. Also no deal Brexit will be bad too.
But here’s the problem - nobody decent now wants to be associated with Johnson/Cummings disaster. See Montie’s [Conservative commentator Tim Montogomerie] NS article today. People have no fear as power slips away.
In normal times this might not be so bad - but in a pandemic + potential no deal this risks a vacuum in govt.
This I think partially explains the utter vacuum in UK govt right now.
Johnson will take the fall but ministers and challengers want a growing economy to ensure re-election. But who is actually in charge of seeing Coronavirus suppressed?
Next problem: No deal Brexiters will keep Johnson if he brings no deal.
Pro-extension/soft dealers will keep Johnson if he helps them
You see the problem?
Johnson cannot have a clear Brexit policy as he’s now too weak - which means he’s now exactly where Theresa May was.
And this is where it gets weird. The longer Johnson hides his Brexit “policy” the longer he survives. Like May it’s his only chance now.
So no one will know even in October. Then in November he has to pull something out the hat.
And at that moment all hell breaks loose.
Next problem: Who’s working now on the trade deal agreement if Boris is not trusting anyone?
Frost? Cummings?
The civil service know Boris is a gonner; nobody else knows what’s going on (this also confirmed by ministers)
So the person in charge is barely surviving and on the way out.”