Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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I already pointed out that it only detailed England and Wales but then you don't read what I write anyway!!!
Indeed it is............and we all think the other lot are the idiots.
And what does adding it all in mean? You think they have ignored Scotland and NI because it reverses the answer? This is what the cumulative is. No deal still being "preferred" to remain whether extension is granted or not:
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shows everyone claiming that they are the will of the people are talking bollocks. Still way too close to make those types of claims without a referendum to back it up, nothing has a majority or is close to it. Similar situation to parliament despite our complaints.
And of course it all depends on the question being asked. The poll Imps quotes is on a very specific scenario which, in the light of the legislation going through today probably won’t ever arise.
Here is another YouGov poll taken on 31/3-1/4 which asks a more general question:
Here is another YouGov poll taken on 31/3-1/4 which asks a more general question:
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and of course:
It does of course highlight the nightmare the government are going to have when deciding on the question for the referendum. (and the problem with the original one)
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It does of course highlight the nightmare the government are going to have when deciding on the question for the referendum. (and the problem with the original one)
Thinking it would be a bad outcome is completely irrevalent. I think it would be a bad outcome because I think we should have negotiated properly to get a betterr deal. However it is better than remaining.
Also irrelevant is "in the light of the legislation going through today probably won’t ever arise." The poll isn;t asking what people think will happen or what could happen. It is asking quite simply "remain or no deal." Nothing to do with likleyoods. Next up a poll of Southampton fans asking "League or Champions League" to which people state the poll is inaccurate because neither will (can) happen.
@VocalMinority Yes it wasn't my "preferred outcome either." So again irrelevant. "49%gave some sort of Brexit as their preferred choice" which shows that my preference of "leaving with alternative deal" feeds into "no deal" in a binary no deal/remain poll, as do 18% of those deal/alternative preferences.
The two big economic entities are the CBI (as you said) and the TUC
Capital and labour both equally adamant that no deal Brexit is in no one’s interests.
I have friends working in Europol and Dutch security equally horrified and well placed to judge the situation.The two big economic entities are the CBI (as you said) and the TUC
Capital and labour both equally adamant that no deal Brexit is in no one’s interests.
Jab
This is a good read. Some good descriptive diagrams in it as well (although of course the "anti-Tory" lot will never accept that the Tories have moved so far to the left........which they have.........but still worth a read.
This diagram is pretty emblematic of where we are and what a lot of people like me who are centre right see things. Look at the gaping chasm on the right:
https://countrysquire.co.uk/2019/03/29/post-brexit-tory-doom/
This diagram is pretty emblematic of where we are and what a lot of people like me who are centre right see things. Look at the gaping chasm on the right:
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https://countrysquire.co.uk/2019/03/29/post-brexit-tory-doom/
You didn't incude 14% who don't know or don't give a flyer. There's also a big overseas electorate ignored in these polls that will be far less complacent if/when a 3rd referendum is held, majority in favour of staying, my opinion looking at various expat (or emigrants) sources and my local network.
Load of bollocks these polls, scotch 'em up yer rusty! Posters here choose those that suit their point of view IE:-
From here https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-poll-predicts-swing-to-remain-in-second-brexit-vote/
UK poll predicts 8-point victory for Remain in second Brexit vote
Two-thirds of voters say Britain should continue to have a close relationship with the EU after Brexit.
By ELINE SCHAART
11/5/18, 9:55 PM CET Updated 11/6/18, 2:19 PM CET
U.K. voters would vote to remain in the EU by a majority of 54 percent if a referendum were held today, according to a poll of 20,000 people across every constituency in the country.
The unusually large poll, carried out by Survation for Channel 4, indicates a swing of 6 percentage points from Leave to Remain since the 2016 referendum and an 8-point margin in a second vote. The data also suggests that 105 local authorities that voted Leave in the original referendum would switch to Remain if a national vote on EU membership were held today.
Moreover, the poll found that if the U.K. and EU agree an exit deal, 55 percent of the voters said they would support at least one version of a second referendum,
Then there's the young vote, those that didn't vote 1st time and newly eligible.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey
Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll. More in the article with sources and links
How about the pre 2016 vote poll? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum extract below. We were going to stay with (where's) Wally Farage wanting another vote
Polls of polls
Several different groups have calculated polls of polls, which collect and average the results of opinion polls across different companies. They have different methodologies; for example, some give more weight to recent polls than others, some deal with undecided voters differently, and some attempt to adjust for the consistent gap between telephone and online polling. As a result, the polls of polls give a spread of results.
Conducted by Date Remain Leave Undecided Lead Notes
What UK Thinks: EU[14] 23 June 52% 48% N/A 4% Six most recent polls.
Elections Etc.[15] 23 June 50.6% 49.4% N/A 1.2% Twelve most recent polls. Telephone polls are adjusted in favour of Leave and online polls in favour of Remain.
HuffPost Pollster[16] 23 June 45.8% 45.3% 9% 0.5%
Number Cruncher [17] 22 June 46% 44% 10% 2% Equal weighting to phone and online polls.
Financial Times[18] 13 June 48% 46% 6% 2% Five most recent polls.[19]
The Telegraph[20] 21 June 51% 49% N/A 2% Six most recent polls.
The Economist[21] 6 June 44% 44% 9% 0% Excludes polls with fewer than 900 participants.
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Irrelevant to what?
If you think its irrelevant I think you need to think about it harder as it has many implications on the various forms of voting and public opinion.
On face value it shows that no deal might win if you eliminate the other options first. Wont win if you don't.
It also shows that the middle ground deals have similar support combined than no deal and as they will probably going to get more support from remain are more likely to win cumulative votes. And that leave itself is more likely to win this way than eliminating the middle ground. And obviously that remain will win a straight choice with a split leave.
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I presented a poll that detailed that people were not scared of "no deal." That it actually had more support than remain. You all countered that by presenting me polls (from the same company) that split the Brexit options against 1 remain option. Then on epoll that assumes that thinking "no deal is not a good outcome" means that people would always go against no deal. That doesn't counter the original one at all. Lots of people who would choose "no deal" over remain/2nd ref consider "no deal" to be a bad outcome because they wanted a better deal.
It's like asking Man U fans if they think 4th place is a bad outcome. The answer is yes. Would they choose 4th or not qualifying at all. No they will choose 4th. If you ask their first preference then they would say 1st.
People like me are not in the no deal camp on those other 2 polls. We are in the no deal in the one I presented.
Do you think the Toryies and Labour party were actually first preference for 82.4% of voters in 2017? Or do you think that was the result of a "basically" binary choice?
Do you think there are 42.4% Tory supporters and 40% Labour supporters in that vote figure? Or those numbers are much lower but other voters fed in because they could only see 2 options?
Your assessment of the "options" is all over the place. You are making assumptions.
Firstly yes, some of those "deals" will go to remain. 5% per the numbers. 18% go to "no deal".
Secondly. You are assuming that if one deal is knocked out that "dealers" will support the other deal and vice versa. It ignores that some might like Deal A but would go directly to no deal rather than Deal B.
You are making a leap to try and combine the support of the 2 "deals." The "middle ground deals."
I wanted an alternative deal. If the alternative deal is wiped out, then I go straight to no deal, not to May's deal.....in this polling scenario with these options.
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Wonder who he could be thinking of? 
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I’m going to start a poll which asks if people support stealing food from the mouths of hungry children, or depriving sick people of medicine, or putting thousands of businesses into bankruptcy, or reversing 40 years of improved workers’ rights, or turning Britain into an offshore tax haven.
Can we have a dancing poll? Please
You're forgetting remain voters as well as getting stuck on the idea of elimination. Youre basically agreeing with me on what said about eliminating the middle options and then not countering any of my other points. I guess because that is the most favorable to leave it's to be expected you would be blind to everything else.
Anyway no deal doesn't have the most support and both mine and chilco's poll shows that while if you lower the bar to what people might support second it would end up somewhere in the middle.
No more access to the European Arrest Warrant, so loss of protection from terrorists, *****philes, people-traffickers, cyber-crime etc.What are the other options
Reduction in the quality of food, as standards will be dictated by the USA, so reintroduction of food additives like hormones and chlorine.
I won’t go on about losing freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and labour, as you no doubt think that’s a good thing.