Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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So in short, if we had a referendum the skeptics would be defeated by their own skepticism. I like the irony in that.
I don't do short but in short probably* yes..................although it all depends on the question. May;s deal vs remain. The Leave voters say "pfft" and you can then argue a mandate on a 40% turnout to overturn the original decision on a 72% turnout.
No deal vs remain and then it becomes competitive because there is something to vote for and you can bet
that the message will be spread and people will be ready to vote again.*probably because the liklihood is that those with the power to decide these things know the above and are going to go for the remain vs remain option.
Fullfact? They were brought out a few times when people disputed things I said!!!
Which expert do you prefer? Owen Jones and Lord Adonis? Oh and Mr Tusk today. lol.
Even the BBC (who usually just quote these things) said it was disputed today. For them to admit the figure is disputed is admission in reality.
Did you read the full fact article?
Manchester Metropolitan University’s Professor Keith Still, said “based on the visuals from the helicopter image, it’s between 312,000 and 400,000 people.”
This type of crowd estimation, called the Jacobs method, is done by dividing a crowd site area into sections, measuring the size of each section and then multiplying each area by the estimated density of people within that subsection.
The people's vote said they used the formula above but even at a density where you are stood and can't walk he says it would be 700k max............and it wasn't that density across the board.
I have been in that kind of density. Away at football games. You guys in Milan looked like that from those pictures from first story windows. a few thousand.
If the Prof says 312k to 400k then I think he must be right..............after all he is the expert, not someone(s) with a vested interest in making out their march hit the magic million.
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No, you’re right. From now on I’ll just believe everything you say Imps. I can confidently say I have never once “brought out” Fullfact or any other fact checker. As a rule I generally leave fact checking to qualified experts in the field in question..
I think that this sums up my view of Brexit.
"I could agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong"
I'd like to pretend Nigel Adkins said that. But he didn't.
"I could agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong"
I'd like to pretend Nigel Adkins said that. But he didn't.
So professor Keith Still must have been a professor of gardening then and not a qualified expert in the field of crowd estimation or whatever his specialist subject that covers that is?
We have had this before Chilcs. I state that "it" has been brought up before and you reply you never have. I am not searching back the pages, there are far too many but fullfact has been used several times against me before yet when the boot is on the other foot then it don't count.
EDIT: Just read this back and I meant to say I am not pinpointing you as saying it, more that as a collective on here Fullfact has been used to argue against me.
And people question us "not believing the experts" when all along, as you have just admitted, you only believe the experts that you want to believe. touché much?
And today's "expert" in the field of crowd estimation is...........Lord Adonis and his able assistant Alistair Campbell, who has been able to attend because there's no Premier league football today.
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Talking is often futile. Listening rarely is.
Unfortunately everyone seems to be doing the former, while no one is doing the latter.
I always say to Mrs No7, you have two ears and one mouth - use them in proportion.
Please explain why TFL sold 1.5 million tickets more than a normal Saturday. Were all those people going to the Finnish Easter Fair, or the Exhibition of Railway Modelling?
The problem here is that if you asked me and I thought that the same turnout would attend then I would accept a no deal vs remain referendum and I would expect no deal to win!!!
The elephant in the room is that IF the last referendum is ignored then a smaller but still quite large (in the circumstances) amount of those who voted leave will refuse to vote. A vast amount hat couldn't be arsed last time will vote. Remain will win 80:20 on half the turnout, which will then leave us in absolute sh1tstorm territory because there would be a backlash in one way or another. Maybe civil unrest, maybe people looking the other way as they vote for extreme options.
Just look at the BS around this issue at the moment. This morning it was widely publicised (with the usual press leakings from Damian Collins) that they were holding Dominic Cummings in contempt. Fair enough............and then Dominic Cummings told his story in the Spectator. That he was asked to attend and he agreed. Damian Collins wanting the big press bit then decided to summon him even though he had agreed and Cummings then got antsy because Collins was trying to grandstand.
Then further on he was asked again to attend to which he said he would attend if everyone was under oath...............to which Collins said "we can't do that." Asked again later and was given the same reply. "Only if everybody is under oath." So Collins keeps on jumping on the media to grandstand about something where Cummings has agreed at each stage and where the "inquisitioner" refuses that everybody should be telling the truth!!!
This is where we are!!! And we believe that remain's "non collaboration" was not the same as Leave's "collaboration."
It is absolutely ridiculous and then people wonder why there is this "establishment vs US" sentiment? Because they protect everything in their favour and admonish everything that attacks their own cause.
We bellitle Trump for claiming more than turned up to his do yet we have the usual Adonis, Owen Jones and today Tusk repeating that 1,000,000 people marched for the "people's vote" despite FullFact (which some have used against me if they think I am not informed of the facts" saying it was between 300,000 and 400,000. This after they claimed 750,000 last time and it being stated as being 250,000 by fact checkers.
The whole argument is about having a go at the other, accusing them of lying, belittling them...............and then them saying that you are vicious, lie and belittle you.
"Look at Farages's 200 people, compared to our million". These people are marching for 15 days all the way down the country. O~f course a million aren;t going to do that march. Not even the 3-400,000 that were actually in London. A nice weekend Jolly will always attract more. It will also attract more than Farage's lot when they reach London whatever Sunday it is because a lot of those that might want to support it won't because Owen Jones will be out with his 1,000 "anti" protestors (claiming 15,000) screaming bile in people's faces.
So yes. Personally I wouldn't be bothered about a vote but lots will not bother, they will take other actions or just give up on voting at all. So the biggest mandate given the country would be reversed by one of the smallest. That will not go down well.
But hey, we're gonna build a wall and starve the South
The only reason for remainers to fear a no deal vs remain referendum is because IF they allowed no deal on that paper it might reverse the current decision of leavers not to vote!!! The narrative you hear on the tellybox and twitter is not the reality and no deal consistently gets more support than a second referendum in polls. And it has been noted that support for a second referendum is significantly lower when remain is the other option on the quesiton!!!
Be careful what you wish for. It will either be a rout on a small turnout or it will be defeated because people do not fear no deal and never did!!!
"So the biggest mandate given the country would be reversed by one of the smallest" Bloody nonsense
Surely not the 2016 referendum at stay 48.1% - go 51.9%
Compare with:-
United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975, stay 67.23% - go 32.70%
United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum, 2011, No 67.90% Yes 6,152,607 32.10%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums in the United Kingdom, verifiable numbers here
2016 described as the thinnest of mandates
I'm sure the turnout for a 3rd referendum will be as high if not higher particularly in the young vote also the overseas vote which I'm part of. You're trotting out the Mogglodyte, express etc line re civil unrest, fear factor 5.
Jab
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Ok (no blue ink) do you remember Pompey had half a million on Southsea common?They knew cos they were there!
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garysfc
Well-Known Member
Now there’s a thought; 2nd referendum with some caveats such as, must be higher # votes than previous by x% & will only reverse 1st vote if by y% That would spice it up.
Jeez, just realised, even if in theory that would work, it would take parliament years to decide upon the %’s
Now there’s a thought; 2nd referendum with some caveats such as, must be higher # votes than previous by x% & will only reverse 1st vote if by y% That would spice it up.
Jeez, just realised, even if in theory that would work, it would take parliament years to decide upon the %’s
It would be a 3rd EU referendum and must be based on the same criteria as the 2nd..
But and however, in future a QM of between 60-65% for referenda please, plenty of examples of other countries votes out there. PR the way to go in my view for elections.
Jab
