As someone that has not been that interested in Brexit, what would happen if The UK left with no deal and told Europe that we will not pay the billions they are expecting ?
Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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The EU take away their bat, ball and stumps.
Edit. Found this https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-bill-understanding-39bn-divorce-payment-121445268.html there's lots of info out there, some more reliable than others. Not surprised to see the express saying it won't be paid. You'll find an "expert" comment to support any view regarding liability.
Jab
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The UK wouldn't get the billions they receive to regenerate the poorer parts of the UK, oh and the economy would crash just a little bit (won't quote figures because nobody knows) and I'll never get to visit my children unless I want to wait 3 days in a queue at Calais
If the UK leaves with no deal a good summary would be that the economy would suffer an enormous shock initially as no-one is set up to deal with the customs checks and other inspection regimes required. That will eventually settle down just to be an overhead for business on both sides of the Channel and the Irish Sea.
Then over the following years, investment will quietly move out of the UK to mainland Europe. The reason is that a major driver of investment is amalgamating production. So, one of the reasons for the success of the Single Market is that you no longer need 27 different plants to manufacture widgets, one in each country. Now, you just have one manufacturing plant for all of Europe, as it's as easy duty-, tariff- and bureaucracy-wise to ship from Paris to London as it is from London to Newcastle. In future, those plants won't be amalgamating to a base in the UK, as we won't give that advantage. So a steady drip of business away from the UK.
Despite the media's best efforts to paint the money due as a "divorce bill" it's actually to pay for commitments already made. Projects we've agreed to (and will still benefit from) and various other things like future pension payments. The consequence if we just refused to pay would be that we'd be failing to pay our dues to the very same people with whom we will urgently need to negotiate a trade agreement, namely the EU. Not just that but it would speak volumes about our willingness to breach international treaties at a time when we'll be desperate to sign trade agreements with countries around the world
Apologies for the length of the response; it's a simple question but even in this I've only skimmed across the answers.
Vin
Many people claim there is a majority for whatever they consider to be Brexit. Here's a thread of selected emails received yesterday by one MP. Read the thread, put yourself in his shoes and try to work out what action the MP is meant to take to reflect the views of these constituents. I genuinely feel a little weepy reading it, as it so accurately reflects where we are.
This is really beginning to get to me so I'm going to take a few days off. Hopefully it'll all be sorted by the time I'm back and we'll be in the sunlit uplands again.
How I wish I believed that.
Vin
PS. Please get a train to London and go on the People's Vote March (Saturday 12 noon, Park Lane southbound) to try to stop this disaster from happening. Please.
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This is really beginning to get to me so I'm going to take a few days off. Hopefully it'll all be sorted by the time I'm back and we'll be in the sunlit uplands again.
How I wish I believed that.
Vin
PS. Please get a train to London and go on the People's Vote March (Saturday 12 noon, Park Lane southbound) to try to stop this disaster from happening. Please.
Well summed up Vin, I'm dismayed by the gung ho attitude of the leavers, withholding the payment can only have an adverse effect in any future negotiations.
Jab
There was a minutes silence before the Mansfield Lincoln game last night!!! Decent folks up here in Brexitland.
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https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1107214750532947968?fbclid=IwAR3uPkNjKg0yQjG1gz3XMn3gso_JaHVRN0dsF4QMH3bxDeV-TDvFIhLAW3w&h=AT16ShNNxHoCYP8e_TIS3z3H2tVmNFRuXQAozJTlcArYBbFoks_nWCkQjTqv5JucXOhc_c3dgRMV3Rq2xmExXvX19mMMYReWXZANL8VM4YNC2L014pWBLIvH5AMKcUUJfQ
I like John Bercow. He certainly has more integrity than MPs like Royston Smith who has zilch!! Can Itchen Conservatives do the decent thing and deselect this muppet and at least get someone with the intelligence of Dominic Grieve or the former Tory who now does "Just a Minute." or Chris Patten?
Can we forget Farage in this scenario? He is merely a frontman for those with much more intelligence. The people that need taken down bigtime are Johnson and Rees-Mogg who is the mastermind, the creator, the brains behind the operation. And the only way to defeat Rees-Mogg is with a superior counter strategy. No one has managed that yet. Target him, defeat him and Remainers could win the day.
It was in response to a point of order last week raised by Chris Bryant, the Labour MP, who cited each of the many times the precedent has been used in this way. Bercow replied that while he agreed with the point, at that time it wasn’t appropriate to make a ruling as the government hadn’t yet decided to attempt another vote. That changed over the weekend, which is why he made the ruling yesterday.
As you say, if casual watchers of BBC Parliament like you and I can work out what’s going to happen, it’s puzzling that people who spend their whole working life in the HoC are surprised.
Absolutely jaw-dropping ineptitude from everyone inside Westminster.
Truly, truly shambolic and abysmal leadership.
Every day, I wait for the next bit of ridiculous news to drop.
Truly, truly shambolic and abysmal leadership.
Every day, I wait for the next bit of ridiculous news to drop.
Not everyone Os! The blame lies squarely and fairly with the Tories. They created the mess by calling the referendum in the first place, they failed to provide any alternatives to the outcome of the vote and then had the misfortune to have a PM who does not know which way to turn, and has allowed fringe groups like the ERG and DUP to have considerable influence in the whole process. But I wonder if the right wing press will bother to mention this because this very same press were quick to lay the blame for the country's ills in the 70s at the door of Labour "caving in to the Unions."
I’m just laughing at the absurdity of it all now; after all, the rest of the world is laughing at us - might as well join in.
There is nothing to laugh about with this shambles that’s for sure. All polititions from all sides need their heads bumped together to knock some sense in to them.
It's one job, sure. But if you tell the best engineers in the world that they have 20 years to build a Channel bridge out of cottage cheese and newspaper, you're still going to get a really bad bridge. The best engineer isn't the one that'll build the best cottage-cheese-and-newspaper bridge, it's the one that'll tell you that your premise is hopelessly flawed.
The shambles is solely the responsibility of the Tories. Who called the referéndum? The Tories. Who designed a badly flawed referéndum question? Again the Tories. Who dropped the baton after the result? A Tory PM. Who has been trying to construct an exit deal? Did she involve the other parties in tryig to secure a better deal? The answer is "non" Who is running around trying to gain the support of dodgy groups and extremists? A Tory PM. So it is rather unfair to tar all politicians with the "shambles" brush when we can see with our own eyes this is a mess caused and created by the Tories.
I’m not sure you can lay all of this down to the Tories. I agree something like this should have been a cross party negotiation. However you can’t say that Corbyn and his cronies have exactly been helpful. All they have been worried about is there own agenda. Very little for the nation as a whole. Non of the MPs seem to be concerned with their actions. It comes to something when MPs have to resign their whip because the main party is going against what their constituants want. You can’t blame May for having to carry out what the people told her they wanted. Granted you can argue wether the tories should have had a referendum at all perhaps.
In truth if there was a general election tomorrow I am not sure who if anybody I could actually vote for out of the lot of them!!
I think you also have to hold the media culpable, and in that I include the BBC, not just the right wing dailies. For the last three years we have been hearing from Ill informed berks called Barry from Barnsley, and worrying about his feelings ffs. This they call “balance”. I call it pandering to ignorance. Meanwhile May has bent over backwards to appease the Brexaggedon extremists in her own party, and never once sought to build bridges with the millions who voted to remain
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