Off Topic Politics Thread

[The Ides of March]

Iran may not be Nazi Germany but it does sponsor terrorist organisations and the elections are fairly pointless. The president they elect has much less power than the "Supreme Leader". Iran is effectively a theocracy and it's leadership is fundamentally opposed to western ideas. Let's not forget they still execute children and the penalty for blasphemy is also death.

The criticism of the JCPOA has always been that it's temporary, allows Iran to continue sponsoring terror groups and also helps Iran develop its economy and gain regional influence. It's entirely plausible that the agreement will end and we'll be left with a richer, more influential, nuclear-armed Iran that remains culturally and philosophically opposed to Western ideas.

It's all very well saying we should build trust and cooperation and then relax sanctions but the differences in thinking between Iran and the West are so great I'm not sure trust or cooperation are even possible right now. The US and Iran certainly aren't going to be friendly towards each other any time soon. Even if trust etc was possible the JCPOA removed the vast majority of sanctions against Iran so there's now very little to be relaxed.

None of which is to say that Trump has some genius masterplan, but it's entirely possible there's a better way of dealing with Iran than the JCPOA.

We call it terrorism, Iran might call these terrorists "freedom" fighters. It is sad that we still bound to the concept of the "nation" state in the 21st century where we still have the reality of "nation" against "nation." Who´s interest this is in, I do not know but it does not benefit us plebs one iota. I bet if we went to Tehran we might well be very surprised at how normal the people are.

It is time to throw off the constraints of nationhood. This is what is good about European unity. We the UK should still seeks to maintain membership of it, to integrate our peoples and values even further. With Trump causing chaos we need our European allies more than ever.

 

[San Tejón]

And Isreal are now bombing Iranian forces.

He's certainly a master diplomat.

Reduced US oil supply, caused more instability and attacks on an ally, and abandoned what oversight they had on a relatively hostile nation's nuclear program.

How does this benefit Donald Trump again?

Changed the last sentence for you.

I haven’t looked but I expect he has a few shares in some arms providing companies, so I am sure Donald will do just fine.
As will some of his buddies.

 

[Onionman]

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They told Trump they would do this when he visited them.

Vin

 

[benditlikeabanana]

Interesting that the usual suspects think Trump's done just fine.

Interesting that the governments of the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China (guided by expertise possibly better than "some blokes on the internet") all counselled Trump heavily against breaking the agreement.

Hmmm, who to trust?

Vin

I am not understanding why Euro leaders want this deal, yet the leaders in the middle east are generally in favour of Trumps actions.
Do they think that Iran will be weakened by sanctions ( although sanctions by the US alone will have little effect), do they want Iran weakened? do they fear Iran? obviously Saudi wants the price of oil to go up. Is this a sunni and shia dispute? I do not think that countries in the region really care that Iran uses oil money to fund terrorism
Trump would like for Iran to have overthrow of Iran, if Iran could be returned to the country before the religious takeover that would suit everyone (except Hammas) but the mullas really do have an iron grip of power

 

[Onionman]

I am not understanding why Euro leaders want this deal, yet the leaders in the middle east are generally in favour of Trumps actions.
Do they think that Iran will be weakened by sanctions ( although sanctions by the US alone will have little effect), do they want Iran weakened? do they fear Iran? obviously Saudi wants the price of oil to go up. Is this a sunni and shia dispute? I do not think that countries in the region really care that Iran uses oil money to fund terrorism
Trump would like for Iran to have overthrow of Iran, if Iran could be returned to the country before the religious takeover that would suit everyone (except Hammas) but the mullas really do have an iron grip of power

No, the leaders in the Middle East are not in favour. I've already quoted the Saudis saying they will need nuclear weapons. The leaders of Israel are in favour.


A few years ago, Iran was working hard to create nuclear weapons, making them in pretty much invincible sites (e.g. under mountains) with no-one able to see how they were progressing.

This deal took five years of diplomatic effort to create unified sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table. Then two years of negotiation led to an agreement. The effect was drastically to reduce Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon. The effect was to allow inspectors access to all of Iran (sometimes with a delay, but access) to check that Iran was keeping to the deal.

Almost entirely because it was the work of Obama, Trump's gone against the advice of all the people involved, all the allies involved and all the interested observers and broken the US side of the deal (he hasn't withdrawn, he's broken it). Now we hear Merkel saying "We can no longer trust the USA". We hear Macron saying similar. We even have Boris Bloody Johnson having a go at them.

So Trump has chosen to go to a state where Iran can resume working hard to create nuclear weapons, making them in pretty much invincible sites (e.g. under mountains) with no-one able to see how they are progressing. What a triumph! He's moved us back ten years to where this all started.

I know you're unable to see anything that suggests Trump is anything but perfect - but try reading what I've written, see if it's true and then tell us Trump was right. I know you didn't listen to the broadcast I linked to but at least read this again before knee-jerk supporting Trump.

Vin

 

[SaintinSerbia]

Brotherhood and Unity.

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[benditlikeabanana]

No, the leaders in the Middle East are not in favour. I've already quoted the Saudis saying they will need nuclear weapons. The leaders of Israel are in favour.


A few years ago, Iran was working hard to create nuclear weapons, making them in pretty much invincible sites (e.g. under mountains) with no-one able to see how they were progressing.

This deal took five years of diplomatic effort to create unified sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table. Then two years of negotiation led to an agreement. The effect was drastically to reduce Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon. The effect was to allow inspectors access to all of Iran (sometimes with a delay, but access) to check that Iran was keeping to the deal.

Almost entirely because it was the work of Obama, Trump's gone against the advice of all the people involved, all the allies involved and all the interested observers and broken the US side of the deal (he hasn't withdrawn, he's broken it). Now we hear Merkel saying "We can no longer trust the USA". We hear Macron saying similar. We even have Boris Bloody Johnson having a go at them.

So Trump has chosen to go to a state where Iran can resume working hard to create nuclear weapons, making them in pretty much invincible sites (e.g. under mountains) with no-one able to see how they are progressing. What a triumph! He's moved us back ten years to where this all started.

I know you're unable to see anything that suggests Trump is anything but perfect - but try reading what I've written, see if it's true and then tell us Trump was right. I know you didn't listen to the broadcast I linked to but at least read this again before knee-jerk supporting Trump.

Vin

I think you are forgetting what a bad deal this is and just trying to say Trump stopped it to get at Obama. All but 2 Republican candidates promised to remove this deal (although whether they would have kept their promise is a different matter) even top democrats like Schumer disliked the deal, it is called a deal and not a treaty because Obama knew it would not go through the house, so did it alone. You were at this stage when Trump was texting about little rocket man, the end of the world is nigh.
China wants the oil, Russia are buddies from Sryia and Europe wants a cash rich Iran for exports.
Its pathetic that it took 5 years to do a deal where the inspectors are not even allowed onto military bases, pure genius. I wonder how much tax payers had to stump up for this piece of junk?

Iran, the United States and five other world powers have sealed a breakthrough framework agreement outlining limits on Iran's nuclear programme, despite attempts by Israel and Saudi Arabia to thwart the deal. Al Jazeera spoke with four analysts about why Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, along with Israel, are upset about the agreement. Al Jazeera 14 Apr 2015. Not CNN I know

 

[Onionman]

I think you are forgetting what a bad deal this is and just trying to say Trump stopped it to get at Obama. All but 2 Republican candidates promised to remove this deal (although whether they would have kept their promise is a different matter) even top democrats like Schumer disliked the deal, it is called a deal and not a treaty because Obama knew it would not go through the house, so did it alone. You were at this stage when Trump was texting about little rocket man, the end of the world is nigh.
China wants the oil, Russia are buddies from Sryia and Europe wants a cash rich Iran for exports.
Its pathetic that it took 5 years to do a deal where the inspectors are not even allowed onto military bases, pure genius. I wonder how much tax payers had to stump up for this piece of junk?

Iran, the United States and five other world powers have sealed a breakthrough framework agreement outlining limits on Iran's nuclear programme, despite attempts by Israel and Saudi Arabia to thwart the deal. Al Jazeera spoke with four analysts about why Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, along with Israel, are upset about the agreement. Al Jazeera 14 Apr 2015. Not CNN I know

You've fallen for Trump hook, line and sinker. When he said he could shoot someone in the street and people would still vote for him you were exactly the type of person he had in mind.

Enough.

Vin

 

[VocalMinority]

I think you are forgetting what a bad deal this is and just trying to say Trump stopped it to get at Obama. All but 2 Republican candidates promised to remove this deal (although whether they would have kept their promise is a different matter) even top democrats like Schumer disliked the deal, it is called a deal and not a treaty because Obama knew it would not go through the house, so did it alone. You were at this stage when Trump was texting about little rocket man, the end of the world is nigh.
China wants the oil, Russia are buddies from Sryia and Europe wants a cash rich Iran for exports.
Its pathetic that it took 5 years to do a deal where the inspectors are not even allowed onto military bases, pure genius. I wonder how much tax payers had to stump up for this piece of junk?

Iran, the United States and five other world powers have sealed a breakthrough framework agreement outlining limits on Iran's nuclear programme, despite attempts by Israel and Saudi Arabia to thwart the deal. Al Jazeera spoke with four analysts about why Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, along with Israel, are upset about the agreement. Al Jazeera 14 Apr 2015. Not CNN I know

Ffs lol.
It's a good deal, just like deal with North Korea will be despite being far more expensive with less oversight than the Iran deal will have that Trumps pushing for.

And just fyi, any traces of uranium detected in an area they hadn't declared would be breaking the deal.
24 days is fine for what they would need from an inspection. Took us 18 to give access to the opcw and that was in a public area.

edit: and this deal makes the US Tax payer money. Doesn't cost them anything. As i said, you can make the argument we shouldn't be improving the economy of a country that's belligerent/funds terrorism if you'd like. but economically it helps every country that's in it.

 

[benditlikeabanana]

You've fallen for Trump hook, line and sinker. When he said he could shoot someone in the street and people would still vote for him you were exactly the type of person he had in mind.

Enough.

Vin

I think we have done this to death, agree enough. Just to say it was nice to have something that we are poles apart on, but at no time to resort to snarky comments like some do, people can disagree but still be civil. Pretty sure there will be another story coming around a corner soon.

 

[Puck]

A few years ago, Iran was working hard to create nuclear weapons, making them in pretty much invincible sites (e.g. under mountains) with no-one able to see how they were progressing.

I'm half-tempted to wind you up here by saying "Fake News" but that's a bit too Trump-ish for my taste. Let's just say I think you're over-stating this. It's far from established fact that Iran has recently been working hard to create nuclear weapons.

As reported in the Guardian (link), in 2015 the IAEA (the UN's nuclear inspectors) "judged that substantial work on nuclear weapons development ceased in 2003, and that there was no evidence of weapons research after 2009." The IAEA has recently (1st May) released a statement quoting that same report from 2015.

Also worth noting that the US's own intelligence agencies didn't believe in 2007 (link) or 2012 (link) that Iran was trying to try develop a nuclear weapon.

Of course on the other side Israel does believe Iran has been working hard to develop nuclear weapons and Mossad is a formidable organisation... but then Israel also claims Iran is "cheating" on the existing deal and it should be torn up.

 

[Puck]

I prefer that argument but the problem is with these sanctions is once you've applied them you can't apply them again for something else. You can't threaten somebody with a bullet you've already fired as it were.

If we're in talks with them, trading with them, and they become reliant on that trade, that gives us far more influence over them and these other issues than if we've already cut them off.

There are different levels of sanctions that can be applied depending on what's being done. I think the US and European countries imposed harsher sanctions than the likes of Russia and China.

Iran is already dependent on other countries when it comes to trade - their economy has been boosted somewhat by the lifting of sanctions but the majority of that boost is down to them selling oil and that money goes to the government, who have almost certainly been using it to fund their "proxies" in the region.

An improved economic situation also risks increasing the popularity of the Iranian government by allowing them to point to their success and by improving living conditions for ordinary Iranians, which would make the country more likely to remain an Islamic theocracy. (In fairness this hasn't really happened so far because most Iranian people haven't benefited very much).

You don't have to be a Trump supporter to see this. I think Ian Hislop summed it up quite nicely on HIGNFY last night when he said something like "Of course it's a bad deal. Everyone knew that. This very complex deal between Iran and the rest of the world is really simple - we give them a shedload of cash and they don't blow us up with weapons."

 

[VocalMinority]

There are different levels of sanctions that can be applied depending on what's being done. I think the US and European countries imposed harsher sanctions than the likes of Russia and China.

Iran is already dependent on other countries when it comes to trade - their economy has been boosted by the lifting of sanctions but the majority of that boost is down to them selling oil. The improved economic situation also increases the popularity of the Iranian government by allowing them to point to their success which means the country is more likely to remain an Islamic theocracy.

I think Ian Hislop summed it up quite nicely on HIGNFY last night when he said something like "Of course it's a bad deal. Everyone knew that. This very complex deal between Iran and the rest of the world is really simple - we give them a shedload of cash and they don't blow us up with weapons."

we're not giving them anything we're trading, we make a shed load out of this too. Arab nations are aiming those weapon at eachother, they've already proved that much in the exchanges between Isreal(the next eurovision should be fun) Saudi and Iran.. So i agree that it sums up the amount of **** people who oppose this deal talk as its completely untrue.

I agree with the rest as long as you change more likely with less likely. Don't know how you can say success through adopting western policy will make them less western.

 

[Puck]

we're not giving them anything we're trading, we make a shed load out of this too. Arab nations are aiming those weapon at eachother, they've already proved that much in the exchanges between Isreal(the next eurovision should be fun) Saudi and Iran.. So i agree that it sums up the amount of **** people who oppose this deal talk as its completely untrue.

I agree with the rest as long as you change more likely with less likely. Don't know how you can say success through adopting western policy will make them less western.

It's not just trade, it's also unfreezing their assets. "Giving" may be stretching things but the deal meant Iran had access to a lot of money it wouldn't have previously been able to access - most reports at the time said the US agreed to unfreeze something like $100 billion of Iranian assets.

 

[VocalMinority]

It's not just trade, it's also unfreezing their assets. "Giving" may be stretching things but the deal meant Iran had access to a lot of money it wouldn't have previously been able to access - most reports at the time said the US agreed to unfreeze something like $100 billion of Iranian assets.

That is trade, the reason we had access to it is as its money that had been invested in western businesses and banks or assets bought from the west. shows how much Trump's sanctions have cost the American people. Sanctions are always a two way thing.

Saying that Iran may use the money to fund military actions against its neighbors or w/e is a fair enough argument but the argument that some are making that the deal cost America and the west money is just bollocks.

 

[Onionman]

I'm half-tempted to wind you up here by saying "Fake News" but that's a bit too Trump-ish for my taste. Let's just say I think you're over-stating this. It's far from established fact that Iran has recently been working hard to create nuclear weapons.

As reported in the Guardian (link), in 2015 the IAEA (the UN's nuclear inspectors) "judged that substantial work on nuclear weapons development ceased in 2003, and that there was no evidence of weapons research after 2009." The IAEA has recently (1st May) released a statement quoting that same report from 2015.

Also worth noting that the US's own intelligence agencies didn't believe in 2007 (link) or 2012 (link) that Iran was trying to try develop a nuclear weapon.

Of course on the other side Israel does believe Iran has been working hard to develop nuclear weapons and Mossad is a formidable organisation... but then Israel also claims Iran is "cheating" on the existing deal and it should be torn up.

In which case, why did the west bother to create Stuxnet to damage Iranian uranium enrichment (read up on it, fantastic tale), released around 2009/10?

And as for the money side of it, allowing Iran to trade again is a good thing, surely? You don't kill people with whom you do business.

Vin

 

[VocalMinority]

I see Trumplomacy is in full swing today with dozens dead in protests against America moving it's embassy.

I tried to resist posting as it feels like I'm having a go at Trump every day atm but 52 dead ffs. Completely pointless too.

 

[Whiteley Saint]

I see Trumplomacy is in full swing today with dozens dead in protests against America moving it's embassy.

I tried to resist posting as it feels like I'm having a go at Trump every day atm but 52 dead ffs. Completely pointless too.

I agree. I wonder how many people need to die before it actually affects him. I don't expect it ever will, as he will always find a way to blame someone else. He'll just go on stirring things up with Iran, Israel/Palestine, N Korea and anyone else he can think of.

 

[davecg69]

I agree. I wonder how many people need to die before it actually affects him. I don't expect it ever will, as he will always find a way to blame someone else. He'll just go on stirring things up with Iran, Israel/Palestine, N Korea and anyone else he can think of.

The fact that he’s in bed with Putin and Netanyahu basically says it all. Just read (“fake news” surely?) that China has offered the Trump corporation something like $100 million to increase business in Asia.
I cannot believe that this world has been allowed to get so mad and it seriously scares me. With the US, Russia, China, Israel and N Korea all running the show and us too busy tearing ourselves apart with brexit, I somehow need to get off.
Just hope that I go in the first wave of nukes - don’t want to be around for the ****storm after .....

 

[Archers Road]

The fact that he’s in bed with Putin and Netanyahu basically says it all. Just read (“fake news” surely?) that China has offered the Trump corporation something like $100 million to increase business in Asia.
I cannot believe that this world has been allowed to get so mad and it seriously scares me. With the US, Russia, China, Israel and N Korea all running the show and us too busy tearing ourselves apart with brexit, I somehow need to get off.
Just hope that I go in the first wave of nukes - don’t want to be around for the ****storm after .....

Don't go before Saints win a trophy