Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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My main memory of that vote was explaining AV to my neighbours as none of them seemed to have a clue how it worked and were going to vote against it for being too complicated
.I think i must have swung half a dozen votes on that one and i wasn't even campaigning for it.
Indeed, that's what I meant about it being laughed out, because most people who bothered to vote hadn't a clue what they were voting for. The Tories merely mocked the idea of it and most people followed like sheep. Alternative Vote [AV] is not the best system of voting, in my opinion, if you want proper representation, but it is still far and away better than FPTP. AV can still result in a democracy where significant numbers people will be totally opposed to the candidate that wins their constituency.My main memory of that vote was explaining AV to my neighbours as none of them seemed to have a clue how it worked and were going to vote against it for being too complicated
I think i must have swung half a dozen votes on that one and i wasn't even campaigning for it.
Just caught Corbyn's speech in Parliament on the election. He needs to get a lot better if he hopes to get anywhere, it was not good.
Who is the guy to TM's right? I think he enjoyed Yvette Cooper's comment and is saying, "Get out of that one, Theresa!!"
I think we should have a referendum on whether to have an election. Wonder what the turn out would be like for that one?
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but here is an interesting theory posted on another board...
"I read the following statement on FB (no idea of author), which provided a link to a long running C4 investigation. If you're truly interested in politics, you should have a look. When Jon Snow speaks, you know it's worth listening to."
The reason for calling the GE is obvious and staring us in the face. It is the Tory election fraud scandal 20 MPs have now been reported to CPS. Many of whom are now also being charged with unreasonable and uncooperative conduct, (a slightly lesser version of perverting the course of justice). If these Mps are found guilty the Tories would lose their majority forcing a GE, an election they would probably lose as It would destroy Tory credibility.
Where as if they have the GE before it comes to court it will have no effect on their credibility. Then if those being charged are found guilty it won't effect the newly formed government as those Mps awaiting prosecution will not standing. Then the Toriy PR machine will have 5 whole years to fix the damage.
The only good thing I can see coming out of this is for those of us paying attention. We will know just how much the other parties actually support Tory rule. Those who support the Tories but only stand to create an illusion of choice will remain silent on this . Those who genuinely want government for themselves will be shouting this from the roof tops at every opportunity. As this is a gift from the gods in terms of vote winning for any party that genuinely wants to oust the Tories. Which ever party makes the biggest fuss over this stands the best chance of becoming the new government. Any parties remaining silent will be ensuring another Tory victory.
https://www.channel4.com/news/election-expenses-exposed
"I read the following statement on FB (no idea of author), which provided a link to a long running C4 investigation. If you're truly interested in politics, you should have a look. When Jon Snow speaks, you know it's worth listening to."
The reason for calling the GE is obvious and staring us in the face. It is the Tory election fraud scandal 20 MPs have now been reported to CPS. Many of whom are now also being charged with unreasonable and uncooperative conduct, (a slightly lesser version of perverting the course of justice). If these Mps are found guilty the Tories would lose their majority forcing a GE, an election they would probably lose as It would destroy Tory credibility.
Where as if they have the GE before it comes to court it will have no effect on their credibility. Then if those being charged are found guilty it won't effect the newly formed government as those Mps awaiting prosecution will not standing. Then the Toriy PR machine will have 5 whole years to fix the damage.
The only good thing I can see coming out of this is for those of us paying attention. We will know just how much the other parties actually support Tory rule. Those who support the Tories but only stand to create an illusion of choice will remain silent on this . Those who genuinely want government for themselves will be shouting this from the roof tops at every opportunity. As this is a gift from the gods in terms of vote winning for any party that genuinely wants to oust the Tories. Which ever party makes the biggest fuss over this stands the best chance of becoming the new government. Any parties remaining silent will be ensuring another Tory victory.
https://www.channel4.com/news/election-expenses-exposed
I have also heard this, from someone who knows "someone". The DPP are poised to announce the prosecutions so that's why May announced the election yesterday. As for the last paragraph, that's pretty much spot on.
If people and parties don't make a huge fuss about this I expect this one will go under the wire quite quietly, with the electorate sleep walking their way to yet more for the haves and more have-nots. And even if there is a big fuss I wouldn't mind betting that very few people will take notice. I hope I'm wrong but I bet this won't stumble the right wing march one step.
This will not go under the wire and I think there is a good chance that someone ( not necessarily an MP) will go to prison over this affair. The biggest question appertains to the Thanet constituency where Farage marginally lost the election. It will cause the Tories a massive problem once criminal charges and what we have here is potentially as damaging as the issues which faced Blair around 2006 when he was under investigation. Channel 4 have, in all fairness, been banging on about this for about 18 months and the allegations are extremely serious. It will bite Theresa May without a doubt and the election has only been caused because there are about 15 constituencies which are effected so that her current majority will be wiped out. For what it is worth, two SNPs are also currently suspended for irregularities although I believe they relate to monetary fraud and not electoral fraud.
This is potentially the most fascinating election for generations and I can see a coalition being formed as I don't think the public will stand for this. The Liberals seem resurgent and , no doubt the BBC will given them a disproportionate amount of coverage. Farron will certainly lead the Liberals to a degree of recovery as pro-European voters have no where else to go to and I expect that he and Sturgeon will prove to be the "stars" of this campaign although I think that smaller parties like the Greens will also become increasingly popular. Politics seems to becoming increasingly fragmented as people get frustrated with the main parties. I like the idea of the "progressive alliance" that was proposed in 2015 and this would surely be preferable to New Labour whose cynicism has contributed immeasurably to politics becoming more "populist" and less tolerant. I would be fascinated to see how this eventually develops and whether we could eventually see the rise of an Islamist Part in the UK. This is not as improbable as it might have once seemed.
It is a shame that Corbyn just comes across as being so weak as his policies are "spot on."
Well I certainly hope you're correct, but I'm a bit cynical about the British electorate these days.
You seem not to have noticed that Cameron was leader back then and now May is leader. McKinlay was a Cameronite pick. The whole setup was Cameron/Osborne strategy, the campaign, the bus etc.
You could ask what is different to the toxicity of Labour due to Blair. Why is this different?
When Blair went Blairites remained the key people in Labour. Even now the only alternative to Corbyn are the Blairites now rebadged as Moderates. So that is why Labour are still toxic. Blair is gone but his legacy remains.
May wiped out the Cameron legacy immediately. She got rid of Osborne, Morgan, Soubry and all those Blairite Cameroons. She wiped out the legacy.
As for keeping this in the limelight and it will hurt the Tories. It was brought up in PMQs today and she had no problem answering that they will ALL be contesting the same seats. This will not even touch the Tories because this is not Cameron's Tories.
Did you not notice the Lib Dems are under investigation for the very same thing? The news might skip over it but they are being investigated for the same as the Tories!
If Labour had a better option than Corbyn or the Blairites in they would be doing much better. Problem beig that those 2 camps hold the power in the party and so it is a straight choice between toxic or inept.
I would have preferred her to go for a 2020 election as she would likely have won more seats but I still expect she will come away with a minimum of 360 (and that is a conservative estimate) from this election.
As to why she called it early, the media are playing their usual game and she has taken advantage of the media's willingness to make it "all about Brexit."
The reality is that this is much less to do with our domestic political need for a majority because of Brexit and much more to do with:
1 - Outward perception. The Western World is in a period where their mainstream are losing votes to "populists" let alone to their oppositions. Macron is not mainstream even though he is a placeman. A Macron/Le Pen final round would mean no mainstream in France. Merkel is going to lose seats and be weakened. She will probably still hold on to power but in a weakened position. Trump has already beaten the mainstream in the US. Italy looks like its succession of EU placemen are going to lead to a weaker head of state with "outsiders" gaining a lot of seats.
And then the UK mainstream leader calls an election and vastly increases her party's majority. It will be a huge message, like it or loathe it, it will send a message out that the UK is not like other countries and is much much more stable.
This will give her much more power in the Brexit negotations.
2 - SNP. The SNP will lose seats here. The Tories might take 6 or more seats in Scotland. Maybe they will lose more than 10 overall to other parties? 2 months after Sturgeon announcing they want a second referendum she is going to lose seats and be weakened. It will be spun as voters sending a message that they do not want a second referendum.
3 - The domestic Brexit agenda is small fry in comparison to the above 2. Brexit would pass without an increased majority. Labour are split on it and the Lib Dems/SNP are not big enough. The Tories have already got their MPs in order so have no real worries about getting it through. It helps but is not necessary to get Brexit through.
This whole BBC/CH4 way of trying to link elections to the referendum needs to stop. How can they keep on going on about Brexit means a UKIP win when they are talking up Lib Dems chances of winning back the South West? When will the media realise that Brexit is done and that the referendum is only a small factor in by elections or General Elections. It has already been voted on. It will happen. People don't need to vote one way to get out of the EU anymore.
Tories 360-420
Labour 120-180
Lib Dems 20- 30
SNP 40-50
If it had been 2020 and Brexit already happened Tories would hit the upper end of that 420 estimate. As it is they will lose some because it does look opportunistic.
As for Farron and the Liberals "seeming resurgent" They are clawing back what they lost. People deserted them and vote Labour instead so Ed actually looked like he had done well. They were punished in 2015. Many will now return. That isn't resurgent. It is like Saints fans returning once Lowe was gone. That isn't resurgent. It is just getting back to normality. Farron won't get back to Clegg's 57 let alone Kennedy's 62 (yes Clegg lost seats) 20-30 is my prediction.
If they hadn't got a ranting boy as their leader and had chosen Norman Lamb instead who is very impressive they could well have done some real damage however Farron just turns people off. He is just a really angry man that has a panic attack if anyone asks him about his opinion on LBGT issues. Norman Lamb comes across as a very calm, very clever man that could appeal to many.
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The media put too much weight on Boris winning the referendum. If that was possible then it would have been a no brainer to have him as PM because he would have surely boosted Tory polling into the stratosphere.
It is media narrative. He is funny and amusing and very "old school toff." Much less influence than Farage!! Neither are my cup of tea.
All complete bullshit. Not replying to his post because I'm not debating with him, but he's wrong in so many ways...
Lib Dems for me. I was always going to anyway. Jeremy's a very nice bloke, with his heart in the right place. But he's no leader. He's a protester, and not a very good one either. Makes an excellent back-bench MP.