Off Topic Politics Thread

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Ian Thumwood said:
The irony is that whilst Nicola Sturgeon is one of those politicians who makes you want to hurl something at the TV, she is easily the most convincing of all the progressive politicians in the UK. She is far, far stronger than Corbyn and I just find myself wishing that we had someone with her drive and commitment to social justice at the head of the country. I think Brexit has given her a mandate but the problem is that it makes it more likely that we will have more Conservative governments. I find NS intensely irritating yet she habitually puts Theresa May to the sword whenever there is a confrontation as the PM is just made to look like someone who wants to subjugate the Scottish people as opposed to govern them.

I think that I would vote for SNP if I was Scottish and the fact that there made be short-term economic consequences is a worthwhile consequence if it ultimately means that you have more control of your destiny. However, the position taken by the SNP is divisive and there is another side of me that would like to see the back of them. For people who want a more progressive Left wing style of government, the decision of the SNP does seem selfish as it will ultimately serve to embolden reactionary right wing parties like UKIP and the Conservatives.
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This might have been true 2 years ago but her approval ratings dropped after the 2015 elections (and the debates) and have tanked since she started flustering her response to Brexit.

She was at 50% approval rating at the General election, 34% in July after the referendum but has since dropped down to 11%. Coupled with the SNP's poor performance in charge of Hollyrood and Scotland's governmental performance the SNP are almost certainly going to lose their majority in Holyrood in 2021 and that is why she wants to rush this referendum out now before it is beyond winnable (if it isn't already.)

I suppose the Scots like to stick it to Westminster and put SNP in the HoC knowing that they have no power there but are becoming much more dis-satisifed with SNP's performance in charge of Scotland.
 
Imp

I think that Brexit will only serve to strength NS's position. Whatever the outcome, the result will be portrayed as a disaster for Scotland. There was a comment about the timing of the referendum being akin to the UK ship being sunk and Scotland's lifeboat being punctured by Theresa May to ensure that the Scots are affected as well. I believe that the two parties should not be a logger heads. May should work to ensure that any deal with the EU guarantees Scottish membership whereas Sturgeon needs to proceed in a fashion that does not jeopardise English and Welsh interests. There is no need for Sturgeon to work against whatever May is going to negotiate because the PM will be the architect of her own downfall. There will only be one winner out of this outcome and that will be Scotland and we will be left as the rump nation once we are outside of the EU. The question in last year's referendum should have been did we want to become more fully incorporated in to the union or not. I feel we should have remained inside to be in a position to ensure that this is not a club run for the benefit of Germany but that incomes are more fairly distributed. Whilst it has it's faults, we are now seeing what a good organisation the EU is. It is not perfect but the UK Govt's position towards Scotland merely illustrates that our system is equally flawed.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Imp

I think that Brexit will only serve to strength NS's position. Whatever the outcome, the result will be portrayed as a disaster for Scotland. There was a comment about the timing of the referendum being akin to the UK ship being sunk and Scotland's lifeboat being punctured by Theresa May to ensure that the Scots are affected as well. I believe that the two parties should not be a logger heads. May should work to ensure that any deal with the EU guarantees Scottish membership whereas Sturgeon needs to proceed in a fashion that does not jeopardise English and Welsh interests. There is no need for Sturgeon to work against whatever May is going to negotiate because the PM will be the architect of her own downfall. There will only be one winner out of this outcome and that will be Scotland and we will be left as the rump nation once we are outside of the EU. The question in last year's referendum should have been did we want to become more fully incorporated in to the union or not. I feel we should have remained inside to be in a position to ensure that this is not a club run for the benefit of Germany but that incomes are more fairly distributed. Whilst it has it's faults, we are now seeing what a good organisation the EU is. It is not perfect but the UK Govt's position towards Scotland merely illustrates that our system is equally flawed.
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I think the opposite. It has shown her for the shallow opportunist she is. She has spent the past year criticising a campaign that had the catchphrase "Let's take back control" and here she is saying the same thing.

She is also offering the chance to stay in the EU knowing that it isn't on offer because Spain, Belgium, Romania and Italy have already stated they will block it as they don't want to set precedents for their own fights against independent regions within.

Then she is saying she won;t have to take the Euro when it would be a mandatory obligation

And she is coming up with new figures not dependent on North Sea Oil, ignoring the last load of figures that were proven to be heavily dependent on North Sea Oil.

Her worst one is her "EU is our largest market" statement. Indeed it is at the present however if they were in the EU and we weren't the WE would be Scotland's biggest market and that leaves them with a huge problem.

There is a lot of talk of SNP voters that voted for Brexit that would vote against independence. She is in a similar position to Labour where their voterbase is split.

There are large numbers of SNP voters that want full independence. They do not want to go from one union into another and as usual the SNP and media are assuming SNP voters all want what the SNP leader says they want. Nice spin but a long way from the truth.


As to the comment that May should make a deal that ensures that Scotland remains a part of the EU is laughable. If for nothing else that would be seen as the UK Prime minister (seen as English PM in Scotland) making decisions for the Scots again.

I think if the Scots had a referendum you would get the answer which union they prefer. They might have voted remain but they would again vote to stay in the UK if given the ultimatum between the 2.
 
Ultimatum or choice? Depends on your spin.. Perhaps the Scots would need to raise Hadrian's wall as there might be quite a lot of English people wanting to move north..
 
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tiggermaster said:
Ultimatum or choice? Depends on your spin.. Perhaps the Scots would need to raise Hadrian's wall as there might be quite a lot of English people wanting to move north..
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Indeed. I think the Scots are perfectly within their rights to determine which direction their future lies. It's not for the English to question their motives. If it is more suitable for them to have a referendum before the rest of GB leaves the EU then that is entirely up to them. I've heard many people talk about referendum fatigue. Total crap. If ordinary people are enthused to change their political future then they'll want to have a say in it. It appears that the Scots want to be European more than they want to be British. I have a lot of sympathy for that view. Let them decide it.
 
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Imp

That is a well thought out argument but you are assuming that the Scots will vote for something that is within their best interest - assuming that remaining within the UK is indeed the case. As was shown by the EU referendum, people do not necessarily vote for the sensible or logical option. The result last June was largely won by a nationalist attitude that sought to put one over the Europeans and a misleading belief that the kind of democracy offered by Westminster was better than that offered by the EU. The result was totally illogical as our best interests remain within the EU. Why do you suppose that the Scottish will not vote with their hearts and not their heads? Indeed, why do you feel that an inferior and vastly insignificant England / Wales will be a more attractive prospect than the EU?

The argument about currency is interesting because I do not believe that it will be as big a stumbling block as imagined. Using the Euro is inherently sensible and if we had elected to ditch the pound it would have facilitated better and more positive links with Europe as well as strengthening the currency itself. If the UK had used the Euro it would be seen as a vote of confidence in it.

As I said, there are few politicians quite as irritating as NS and, in her own way, she is objectionable as Nigel Farage. As someone who love history, if I was Scottish I would love to be able to be involved in a process that made history. Like Brexit, there is no guarantee that independence will be for the better for the Scots but it will mean that they will not be governed by another country which is the current situation at the moment. no one in Scotland voted Conservative. The logic is with NS and I think she is quite correct to seek to remain in the EU. I wish London would support her too as this might convince people that leaving the EU was a very, very bad idea. Whilst she is rightly derided in the UK, she is doing no worse in Scotland than the Tories in the UK at the moment and the logic of her argument is if with the SNP. I suspect that this party would actually fair quite well if allowed to stand in English elections as she remains more credible, I am afraid to say, than Corbyn who is a lame duck.

I think that there should actually be a general election but the MPs allowed to vote on their position on Brexit and totally ignore their respective parties and pay heed to who elected them. I feel that the only winners will be the Liberals who will sweep up the Remainder vote.
 
I trust May about as far as I trusted Thatcher - more faces than the town hall clock.
I wonder if Nicola (who I think is transparent and trust-worthy) is hoping for May to refuse another referndum, thus creating some animosity.
 
tiggermaster said:
Ultimatum or choice? Depends on your spin.. Perhaps the Scots would need to raise Hadrian's wall as there might be quite a lot of English people wanting to move north..
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You mean the English would move North but the Scots would want to remain here?
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Imp

That is a well thought out argument but you are assuming that the Scots will vote for something that is within their best interest - assuming that remaining within the UK is indeed the case. As was shown by the EU referendum, people do not necessarily vote for the sensible or logical option. The result last June was largely won by a nationalist attitude that sought to put one over the Europeans and a misleading belief that the kind of democracy offered by Westminster was better than that offered by the EU. The result was totally illogical as our best interests remain within the EU. Why do you suppose that the Scottish will not vote with their hearts and not their heads? Indeed, why do you feel that an inferior and vastly insignificant England / Wales will be a more attractive prospect than the EU?

The argument about currency is interesting because I do not believe that it will be as big a stumbling block as imagined. Using the Euro is inherently sensible and if we had elected to ditch the pound it would have facilitated better and more positive links with Europe as well as strengthening the currency itself. If the UK had used the Euro it would be seen as a vote of confidence in it.

As I said, there are few politicians quite as irritating as NS and, in her own way, she is objectionable as Nigel Farage. As someone who love history, if I was Scottish I would love to be able to be involved in a process that made history. Like Brexit, there is no guarantee that independence will be for the better for the Scots but it will mean that they will not be governed by another country which is the current situation at the moment. no one in Scotland voted Conservative. The logic is with NS and I think she is quite correct to seek to remain in the EU. I wish London would support her too as this might convince people that leaving the EU was a very, very bad idea. Whilst she is rightly derided in the UK, she is doing no worse in Scotland than the Tories in the UK at the moment and the logic of her argument is if with the SNP. I suspect that this party would actually fair quite well if allowed to stand in English elections as she remains more credible, I am afraid to say, than Corbyn who is a lame duck.

I think that there should actually be a general election but the MPs allowed to vote on their position on Brexit and totally ignore their respective parties and pay heed to who elected them. I feel that the only winners will be the Liberals who will sweep up the Remainder vote.
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Well you see we disagree on the EU and most definitely disagree about the Euro.

So we would disagree about heart and head.

I have no problem with the Scots choosing (maybe ultimatum was a bad choice of word there) after all these things should be decided by the people despite the moans about the people not being capable of such a decision. I doubt there will be the same complaints at a 52:48 either way on this one though unlike the EU referendum despite this being the same thing on 2 fronts.

You are also still falling into the trap of thinking access to the single market is only achievable from within it. The US has access as do many other countries. Scotland will still have access whether within the UK or not however if they were to leave the UK and then be outside the EU for a decade or more until they are allowed in as seems pretty likely that would most definitely not be that good for them would it. Instant entry to the EU is not an option that is going to appear.

As for being better in the UK or better in the EU? The Scots trade is just over £61bn within the EU. Nearly £50bn of that is to the rest of the UK. Non EU is £16.4bn. so "exports" to the rest of the UK are nearly double the exports to the rest of the world and over 4x exports to the EU.

London will give her the referendum she wants. It would merely cause more problems not to. The timing is all that will be in question. NS wants it earlier because her stock is decreasing and her favourability diminishing while May would obviously prefer to have an EU deal finalised and the Scots vote after that is in place. You can of course argue that there will be no deal but let us just run with the very slight 99% chance that there will be a deal.

If I were someone who disliked the Tories I would not want a snap election now. You would be facing a huge landslide and Tories being able to put whatever they want through. We do need a better opposition however a smaller opposition would not supply that.

SNP would do nothing in England other than take a few more Labour votes and push even more seats into Tory hands. Labour have enough of a problem losing votes to UKIP without SNP coming down and splitting that vote more.

only 43% of Scots would be happy with a hard border with the UK to stay in the EU and "exports" to the UK have risen much faster than exports to the EU (of which over 20% is to the Netherlands due to it's "porting facilities" and could well therefore not be EU exports anyway.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/scots-prefer-hard-border-u-k/

What no-one seems to be suggesting anymore which surprises me as it would be much more likely to win an independence referendum this tie around would be for separation from the UK but also from the EU. The UK would undoubtedly just let trade continue as before between us and a separated Scotland and it would offer actual independence.

So let her have her referendum. I merely gave my opinion. IF NS does not realise that all SNP voters did not vote for remain then she is ignoring it.

AberdeenSaint said:
I trust May about as far as I trusted Thatcher - more faces than the town hall clock.
I wonder if Nicola (who I think is transparent and trust-worthy) is hoping for May to refuse another referndum, thus creating some animosity.
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Exactly my point. May will not refuse another referendum. It will be either 2018 before the deal (as Sturgeon wants) or 2019 after the deal but it will happen. It would be yet more political suicide not to seeing as Brexit happened and would lead to a never ending clamour for a referendum which would eventually happen anyway. Better to grant it and hopefully put it to bed for good as well as shoring up the Tory position.
 
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Imp

I am not convinced that the Tories win get a majority in a fresh general election let alone an enhanced one. They are already under investigation (bot my the police and their own internal affairs people) regarding the over-spend on their campaign bus. One MP is allegedly under caution and I believe that this would effect at l wast 24 constituencies. This includes Thanet where they stood against Farage and won. Living near Winchester, the one political party that is resurgent is the Liberals and surely they would command a big chunk of the "Remainers" as they are the only political party other than the Greens and SNP who wish to remain in the EU. I think that the Liberals will erode the Tory vote and easily take constituencies like Winchester which are generally educated and liberal.

There are some massively interesting potentials in the next election and the UKIP vote is effectively up for grabs because they no longer have a role and have elected a comedian (apologies, former Tranmere Rovers legend) as leader. I would expect Corbyn to be ousted (good bloke that he is) and replaced by a the first female leader of the Labour Party. Brexit will prove a disaster for the economy and this will erode any support for Theresa May. Assuming an election in 2020, expect the stock of the Tories to have been diminished, Labour resurgent under a new leader but dependent upon a coalition with the Liberals and Greens to hold power and UKIP to have no impact whatsoever.

I don't understand the enthusiasm for Theresa May as PM. She was a strong Home Secretary but has no real English opposition to test her abilities as PM and is repeatedly out-thought by Nicola Sturgeon to runs rings around her continually. Added to which, the associations with Trump will probe more of a disaster than Blair and Bush. Sturgeon is probably the most capable and formidable politician in Europe at the moment. I don't like her in the least but her politics cannot be challenged and she already has Scotland punching well above it's weight if you consider the size of population. It was interesting to see the Welsh Nationalists and the Greens saddle up to her in the next election as if they are hoping some of the fairy dust will rub off. Sturgeon is far more formidable than Margaret Thatcher was and has none of the negative connotations associated with her. It is a shame that she is so narrow minded as to limit her ambitions to Scotland and she would probably have made a good PM. Selfishly her actions will probably mean any future "progressive" government in the UK will have to be a coalition.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Imp

That is a well thought out argument but you are assuming that the Scots will vote for something that is within their best interest - assuming that remaining within the UK is indeed the case. As was shown by the EU referendum, people do not necessarily vote for the sensible or logical option. The result last June was largely won by a nationalist attitude that sought to put one over the Europeans and a misleading belief that the kind of democracy offered by Westminster was better than that offered by the EU. The result was totally illogical as our best interests remain within the EU. Why do you suppose that the Scottish will not vote with their hearts and not their heads? Indeed, why do you feel that an inferior and vastly insignificant England / Wales will be a more attractive prospect than the EU?

The argument about currency is interesting because I do not believe that it will be as big a stumbling block as imagined. Using the Euro is inherently sensible and if we had elected to ditch the pound it would have facilitated better and more positive links with Europe as well as strengthening the currency itself. If the UK had used the Euro it would be seen as a vote of confidence in it.

As I said, there are few politicians quite as irritating as NS and, in her own way, she is objectionable as Nigel Farage. As someone who love history, if I was Scottish I would love to be able to be involved in a process that made history. Like Brexit, there is no guarantee that independence will be for the better for the Scots but it will mean that they will not be governed by another country which is the current situation at the moment. no one in Scotland voted Conservative. The logic is with NS and I think she is quite correct to seek to remain in the EU. I wish London would support her too as this might convince people that leaving the EU was a very, very bad idea. Whilst she is rightly derided in the UK, she is doing no worse in Scotland than the Tories in the UK at the moment and the logic of her argument is if with the SNP. I suspect that this party would actually fair quite well if allowed to stand in English elections as she remains more credible, I am afraid to say, than Corbyn who is a lame duck.

I think that there should actually be a general election but the MPs allowed to vote on their position on Brexit and totally ignore their respective parties and pay heed to who elected them. I feel that the only winners will be the Liberals who will sweep up the Remainder vote.
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You need to add a massive "in my opinion". I couldn't disagree more with literally everything you say!
 
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SaintinSerbia said:
poor old Jez - I've no idea why anybody can't support a decent bloke these days. So we're left with a lame duck vs. a lucky dame!
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He's not that decent imo. If he was, he would do the decent thing and resign, but unfortunately he is a zealot, and zealots are immune to reason because in their own heads they are always right. Nothi g decent about that.
 
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There is a Parliamentary Petition on the go for Scots to sign calling for there not to be another referendum. It's reached 108k + so far so should be considered for debate in the House of Commons. From the map showing where the voters are it appears to be Scots signing it and in theory the ones outside Scotland could be Scottish too.
 
Whiteley Saint said:
There is a Parliamentary Petition on the go for Scots to sign calling for there not to be another referendum. It's reached 108k + so far so should be considered for debate in the House of Commons. From the map showing where the voters are it appears to be Scots signing it and in theory the ones outside Scotland could be Scottish too.
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Scotland is clearly split on the issue and it's probably relatively safe for Theresa May to delay another referendum. I read a piece by John Curtice who cited two recent surveys on whether and when there should be another referendum. The results were as follows:

Survey 1 - Sunday Times

A referendum should be held in the next year or two, during the course of the Brexit negotiations - 27%
A referendum should be held after two years once those negotiations are over - 23%
A referendum should not be held at any point in the next few years - 50%

Survey 2 - Wings Over Scotland

A referendum should be held before the UK leaves the EU - 32%
A referendum should be held after the UK leaves the EU - 19%
There should not be a referendum for 20 years - 25%
There should never be one at all - 24%

These support the idea that opinion is split almost exactly down the middle. There's no guarantee but if May does delay things it might help the Conservatives in the same way that being strongly in favour of remaining in the EU may help the Lib Dems. Ruth Davidson is already relatively popular and it might be that they pick up support from unionists if Theresa May is seen to be actively looking to preserve that union (in contrast to Corbyn who doesn't seem too firm on this).
 
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