Good point Cruyff. Perhaps the 40 point mark is more a target for survival rather than the actual requirement.
Yes I have come to the conclusion that this is the biggest factor.If you look at the Two Manchesters, Spurs,Arsenal,Chelsea and possibly the Scousers we only took six points off those six teams.There is no reason to think that this will change.that's why my guess is 36 for safety this year.