Last night the Wanda Diamond League hit Lausanne's Place de l'Europe with an almighty bang. The pole vault world record holder, Sweden's Mondo Duplantis, went head to head with America's world champion, Sam Kendricks in the best contest in yeas. Brilliant stuff.
Yesterday was a boring tedious days racing but it was a very interesting finale where Team Sunweb showed their power but got overwhelmed by the magnificent Wout in the finish. It was another amazing ride by the star of the show for me, after leading the Jumbo Visma train up mountains the day previous he then outwitted and outsprinted the fast men in a flat finish. it’s well worth watching yesterday’s finish just to see Caleb Ewan’s face with 70 metres to go. The pure frustration knowing that he wasn’t going to feature after being too far back on the turn. Wout Van Aert picked the wheel of Cees Boll and the train of Sunweb worked perfectly but for WVA’s perfectly positioned ride. Top class is that lad! The other factor from the day (and an after time for me) was Sam Bennett taking the green jersey. I managed to back him yesterday at 7/4 for a good amount to win the points jersey overall. I thought he would be in green after the day and was hoping for him to shorten because of that. He is now into 5/6 for the overall green jersey. Peter Sagan has looked a shadow of his old self, and with him not featuring in finishes I think Sam Bennett has got his measure. It’s days like today though that might put doubt over that bet. Peter Sagan might be aiming to get into a break, to scoop up points at the intermediate sprint, but I’m hopeful that Sam Bennett will mark him and go up the road if needed. That is one aspect of today that will be interesting. The other aspect today is the uphill finish and the potential for a GC battle. I’m hoping that we might see a proper breakaway for the first time in the tour. The riders that interest me today are Lutsenko (down 5 minutes 50), Barguil (5 35) and De Gendt (46 minutes!). The latter has been resting as much as possible with a back pain but he did show to the front earlier in the week which suggests he might just be ready to have a day off the front. All win - Lutsenko @20/1 Barguil @ 40/1 De Gent @ 28/1 Saver on Roglic at 7/2 Now I don’t think Roglic and Jumbo Visma want to go into yellow today, so they won’t necessarily be chasing a break. That leaves Mitchelton Scott to chase with Yates in yellow, which might mean the break has a chance! So why is Yates in yellow? Because of a technical infringement by Alaphilippe, taking 20 seconds penalty. It’s possibly good news for Sam Bennett who might get more support to keep his green jersey whilst Alaphilippe is allowed a free role to go on the attack. Let’s hope it’s a much more interesting day!
It was an terrible error in judgement by the staff of Deceuninck-Quick Step in handing that drink to Julian Alaphilippe inside the 20k mark. Someone needs a good slapping. What chance Ewan at 6-1 for the Green Nass? As you mentioned, it doesn't look as though Sagan is the force he once was and Bennett is 4-5. He just seems value. But's value anyway?
You can’t eat value Cyc! The fact that Ewan sat up in the sprint yesterday and his loss of team mates Degenkolb and Gilbert will mean that he’s less likely to be able to call on help to get into intermediate sprints. He is 48 points behind currently and I think it’ll be a battle between him and Kristoff for the 3rd best in the points score. Looking forward we’ve got five or six stages left for sprinters, if he wins four of them then he’d have a great chance. That shows how much of a task he’s got unless he starts going for intermediate sprints. Sam Bennett and Peter Sagan are better climbers too, so any intermediate sprints after climbs should fall into their hands (Sagan is most dangerous here)
I will update that, the peloton was disappointing but then Alaphillipe takes the sprint and gains a second The intermediate sprint was interesting again with Sam Bennett taking more points away from Sagan, he now leads by 12pts with plenty available tomorrow! The key to take from todays sprint was that his teammate Morkov also got involved taking a position away from Sagan, which to me showed more intent from the team to get Sam into an even better green jersey position. Again Ewan didn't get involved in the intermediate sprint. Tomorrow is one for the sprinters, will have a proper look at the finish later to see if there is any value in the market.
Not a betting day to start with today, and that is due to the potential of a crosswind on the final stretch into the finish (Not sure if anyone knows this part of the world and how exposed it is in terms of wind?). This means the potential for echelons to form and that would smash open the race. If this does happen in the final 30km it could really cause havoc with the GC and also the sprinters. So who will get into the final selection? Who knows. However if we get inside the final 5km and Caleb Ewan and Sam Bennett are in the group then I expect the two fastest men will have the sprint between the. The finish is a long drag race so picking the bet wheel will be crucial and timing the finish perfectly. Currently Caleb has the best record of doing this, but I think today is the day that Sam Bennett will time things correctly and having teammates around will help him gain the edge.
Do you think they are trying to save themselves for the mountain stages Nass, or that first day of carnage has put a bit of doubt in to the minds of the riders...?? Saying that it was bloomin awful weather that day...
I think it’s saving themselves for the big HC climb days. Jumbo Visma want others to do some work and as such don’t want the leaders jersey and I think others are afraid of attacking. It’s a shame because with Alaphilippe and Yates we could see fireworks but they’ve got too close to the head of the times for that to happen. Cycling is a funny sport and one day of unexpected winds or rain can change it all.
He will win the battle today, but that intermediate sprint shows why he will lose the war. Trentin outbattled him and I doubt he will win the stage either. In previous seasons he’d be odds on to win the stage now. He’s second or third favourite now. 11/1 Bryan Coquard would be my bet now, but I’m not playing today and hoping Wout wins again
Bennett will be very happy to see Sagan miss out in a messy sprint. Very much damage limited from a hectic day. The days big losers were Carapaz (again) Pogacar and Landa.
Tomorrow is a day in the mountains, and again it is an opportunity for a breakaway to feature. I think we've got some very strong riders well out of their ground, and that means that a very strong breakaway could form. In that hope I have backed Dani Martinez @ 18/1 - Down by 18 minutes. Winner of the Dauphine has been going steadily backwards in the standings since his horrid start of the tour when falling twice. He is now in a perfect position to go for a stage win, and this is the perfect opportunity. He showed his mountain legs in the Dauphine and he should provide a good engine for a break if he gets into it. Davide Formolo @ 33/1 - Winner of a stage at the Dauphine, stands at 10 minutes down on GC, so should be able to get into a breakaway if it is the plan. He is another strong climber and big engine for this tough stage. Warren Barguil @ 33/1 - down just 5 minutes 48 so if he gets into the break it might not go too far down the road. He has been showing his strength though, so he might aim to go over the last mountain with a secondary break, which would mean that the GC contenders wouldn't need to chase him down. Tiesj Benoot @ 66/1 - Having a horrible tour in term of lost time, but he does keep showing a little bit more spark. At 66/1 he is too big and he is a classy climber on his day. All speculative, but if any of them get in the break they will trade much shorter in running. I am really hopeful that the leaders let a break go, I don't think Mitchelton Scott will be chasing it down, and Ineos and Jumbo should be marking each other with stage 9 and then the rest day on the horizon. Again I don't think Jumbo will be wanting to take yellow with another stage like this on Sunday, it would mean a massive workload on the team with only a 1/3 of the race gone. Alaphillipe will surely attack the GC over the last summit, and the downhill will cause mayhem if he does go. The race will go from mountain climbs to rapid downhill in moments.
What do you think of the way Ineos has attacked the race so, as compared to Jumbo Nass? Will the latter maybe the fresher today, and what of Mitchelton - Scott who have the yellow, surely they have to try and cover what ever happens up front?
Ineos have been finding their feet so to speak, the ride on the first mountain finish was strong and shows that the support team are pretty good and Bernal has looked untroubled. My issue with Ineos is that they aren’t the most adventurous so I wouldn’t expect them to go attacking for a while still. Jumbo are the strongest team and I hope we see (tomorrow hopefully) them take it on and try to make those big time gaps before the rest day. They’ve not done much work so far and yet have stage wins and the dominant GC rider. Mitchelton Scott aren’t in the same league, Yates had to ride for himself yesterday and I expect he will have to do that for much of the tour. I see him fading in the GC soon (tomorrow probably) and then going for stage wins. I just hope others try to win the race rather than limit losses. That’s probably for later in the race though.
Well that is interesting, Roglic didn't look quite the dominant force that had been shown in the last week, and Pogacar pulled nicely clear to get back into the yellow jersey hunt. Pinot was the first big name to be taken out of the running by the mountains, he looks like another bit part player in the tour. The breakaway did go and win the race, unfortunately the selections didn't get into the break, and that was that. I hope tomorrow will see more action from any bets I have! The interesting bit on this day was when Pogacar attacked for the first time, the two who went with him were Pogacar and Quintana, leaving Bernal in their wake. They were caught and then when Pogacar went again it was just a case of everyone holding station rather than following and catching. Was this a lack of wellbeing by the pack? A show of force by Pogacar? Or tactical? We will probably find out tomorrow!! The Green jersey battle was subdued, but it was a +2pt day for Sam Bennett who does look to be the one to be with despite being behind in the standings. If he and his team can continue to mark Sagan and not let him get into breaks, then it will surely be Sam Bennett in green in Paris. Alaphillipe blowing the race apart with his final effort was sublime, but it was probably brilliant news for Bennett who should get more support again for the green jersey battle!!
