1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

OT: Mafia

Discussion in 'Liverpool' started by Milk not bear jizz, Sep 3, 2014.

  1. Lucaaas

    Lucaaas Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    14,768
    Likes Received:
    3,980
    Are you thinking of changing your vote before 8pm?
     
    #301
  2. moreinjuredthanowen

    moreinjuredthanowen Mr Brightside

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    122,848
    Likes Received:
    29,671
    so I finally got a chance to read back and do my little table.

    you all know from the tally who is being voted for but here is my version, i ordered by who i read voting first and i left the reasons out as i think everyone knows more or less why.

    [table="width: 500, class: grid, align: center"]
    [tr]
    [td]Voter[/td]
    [td]Voted for[/td]
    [td]Changed to:[/td]
    [td]Changed to:[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Gerrez[/td]
    [td]Danilo[/td]
    [td]IBWT[/td]
    [td]Astro[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Luvgonzo[/td]
    [td]astro[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Astro[/td]
    [td]IBWT[/td]
    [td]Gerrez[/td]
    [td]IBWT[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Hash[/td]
    [td]Lucass[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Lucass[/td]
    [td]gerrez[/td]
    [td]IBWT[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]IBWT[/td]
    [td]Gerrez[/td]
    [td]Astro[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Danilo[/td]
    [td]gerrez[/td]
    [td]Astro[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Dr[/td]
    [td]ibwt[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]MITO[/td]
    [td]Hash[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [td]-[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Sky[/td]
    [td]gerrez[/td]
    [td]mito[/td]
    [td]ibwt[/td]
    [/tr]

    [/table]


    I now remember why tables are a complete pain in not606.... <laugh>

    I think there are a few theories and approaches and the people who've argued most got most votes.

    4 of us never changed votes at all, either we are convinced we are right, or like my case i don't know for sure so left it.
    3 of us voted twice, probably first a guess to vote like the first 4 but then got a suspicion and changed
    3 of us voted 3 times, its interesting to see the swing to gerrez then astro and now ibwt.

    does it really tell me anything? more active = more votes which is prob why asto's quietened down though he is sure he knows who mafia are (or is mafia) and gerrez seems to have laughed off the votes. Sky has changed votes 3 times but not attracted the attention.

    I get the feeling there'll be more votes changing before night time. I bet the 4 of us who have not changed votes so far are wondering what to do as I for sure am thinking that as milk has pointed it out that i'll be a suspect next if i do change now. I have no feeling as to who to vote for yet, hash has been very quiet (i think) so is that suspicious? should i vote for one of the top 2? if so why... IBWT made more sense early on about mafia would sit quiet and not provoke anyone but equally everyone voting for one person has flaws and the deal with gerrez was suspicious. however gerrez has pointed out if one are mafia its unlikely both are as it'd be a mad tactic to start arguing together day 1 in front of everyone and they never pointed elsewhere.

    I get the feeling really that until round 2 we won't have enough information. My understanding right now is one of the top 4 gets killed, then the mafia do something.. maybe we hear someone gets killed and that tells us something and finally how do the town investigators tell us who they found out about.. if they actually find a mafia (its 1 investigator looking at 9 people so they have 2/9 change of hitting mafia or better i guess if they have suspect eg one of top 2 and 2 investigators in parallel would be 2/9+2/9 - 2/9*2/9 = probability theory of two non mutaull exclusive events finding mafia = 39.5%)

    So next round we have a 40% chance that someone knows who a mafia is but that person has to find a way to get us to vote fro that person
     
    #302
  3. moreinjuredthanowen

    moreinjuredthanowen Mr Brightside

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    122,848
    Likes Received:
    29,671
    in short i've sent about a 1/2 hour typing the reply i just did and once i did i just have seen your question... per my answer i am not sure as i don't know which of the top two voted for are mafia based on my looking at it and so while i found 4 of us have voted the once i think if anyone of us do change we risk being targets next round anyway.

    If i vote now surely it'd only be to choose one of astro or IBWT to eliminate but others could already be thinking of changing or react to my changing as well. Perhaps the two in question could give the rest of use a reason not to vote for them as i think we know the reason to vote for thier rival.
     
    #303
  4. moreinjuredthanowen

    moreinjuredthanowen Mr Brightside

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    122,848
    Likes Received:
    29,671
    and sorry i didn't see this one as i was typing my table and the page flipped.


    see the thing is.... the coinflip is ok but it gives an equal chance to a mafia or investigator being eliminated and greater chance of townsfolk getting hit. (2/10 = mafia, 2/10 = investigator, 6/10 = townsfolk) this puts the 20% that have the role to find mafia at risk 20%

    the IBWT strategy as i understood it was to go for one person and all vote that way. in theory the odds of actually hitting someone this was is also the same BUT you are probably right that its bascially not random who gets chosen in the first place so if the mafia get to pick then theres no chance its fair.

    i said before i find both flawed and i think this is why both of you have got voted for but either one could be mafia or indeed none. We just don't know. Thats why i don't know what to do.

    I do think saying IBWT is lying and nonsense is a bit strong though so it draws suspicion.
     
    #304
  5. Milk not bear jizz

    Milk not bear jizz Grasser-In-Chief

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2013
    Messages:
    28,193
    Likes Received:
    9,998
    Oh... and just as a reminder for anyone who might consider themselves a target for assassination/execution tonight.

    You're allowed a "Goodbye Cruel Word- and screw the lot of you for voting me off" post after you die- but please, if you die, you're not allowed to make any comments/observations that might affect voting in subsequent days. Comments that affect gameplay have to be made whilst you're alive.
     
    #305
  6. moreinjuredthanowen

    moreinjuredthanowen Mr Brightside

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2011
    Messages:
    122,848
    Likes Received:
    29,671
    [video=youtube;MC6bzR9qmxM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MC6bzR9qmxM[/video]

    i can see astro going through the mask "it wasn't me routine"

    "it wasn't me it was the one armed man" <laugh>

    goodbye cruel world... i somehow don't see one of those
     
    #306
  7. Yeah, realised that but you said something about waiting until after the first round of votes to make sure the Towny Inv. wasn't killed
     
    #307
  8. Milk not bear jizz

    Milk not bear jizz Grasser-In-Chief

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2013
    Messages:
    28,193
    Likes Received:
    9,998
    Hmmm... Not sure what that was in reference to.

    The Nightly cycle goes:
    1) Execution By Vote
    2) Assassination/Conversion (assuming don isn't killed in step 1)
    3) Detectives/Investigators will receive PM from me letting them know if the person they investigated is mafia or not (assuming they're not killed first)


    Perhaps I was saying that the Investigations come after the executions earlier and that's what you're thinking. If they're killed first they won't get their results back.
     
    #308
  9. Can't see the Mafia killing off any of the survivors out of me, Astro or Biscan. We are the targets anyway so keeping them around keeps the focus on them too.

    Maybe we should all vote for the least active member here just so the contents keep flowing lol (I'm joking BTW, just in case)

    I have my thoughts on who one of the Mafia could be (and I've already passed my thoughts on Biscan/Astro so I obviously don't mean them) but don't want to say too much ATM, want to watch what he does next #bluff #doublebluff #treblebluff
     
    #309
  10. astro

    astro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2012
    Messages:
    46,790
    Likes Received:
    15,882
    Oh look the only two people voting in step are IBWT and danilo <whistle>
     
    #310

  11. astro

    astro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2012
    Messages:
    46,790
    Likes Received:
    15,882
    About the detectives; I would like IBWT and danilo to be investigated (assuming they survive) and we have 2 detectives but AFAIK the innocents are not allowed to communicate privately so there is no way to make sure each detective investigates a separate person. Plus then there is the issue of believing what they say and whether they want to reveal themselves as a detective.

    Anyway, both investigate IBWT (change to danilo if IBWT dies)

    Does the result of the execution get revealed before the detectives choose to investigate (i.e. whether dead person is innocent or mafia)?
     
    #311
  12. I'd say you and Biscan.

    Thing is, the two investigators don't know who each other are or who the other is investigating. Nor is there a way of organising it so they don't investigate the same person unless one of them makes a sacrifice and reveals themself. Of course, that person could then be Mafia pretending...

    Edit: then again, one of you or Biscan is definitely Mafia IMO but your certainly on different teams too. Checking one of you will show what the other is IMO
     
    #312
  13. Milk not bear jizz

    Milk not bear jizz Grasser-In-Chief

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2013
    Messages:
    28,193
    Likes Received:
    9,998
    Detectives have to tell me before 8.
    Votes could change anytime before 8.
     
    #313
  14. Lucaaas

    Lucaaas Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    14,768
    Likes Received:
    3,980
    If the detective did reveal himself it would be useless for us townfolk, because it would mean the mafia take him out before he gets the chance to investigate.
     
    #314
  15. Red Hadron Collider

    Red Hadron Collider The Hammerhead

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2011
    Messages:
    57,478
    Likes Received:
    9,839
    What the **** is this bollocks all about? <yikes>
     
    #315
  16. Fair point. No idea then <ok>

    I guess this is where more people and the extra characters comes in handy. The 'bodyguard' could be used.
     
    #316
  17. Jürgenmeiʃter

    Jürgenmeiʃter Top top top top top flirt

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2011
    Messages:
    27,578
    Likes Received:
    2,251
    Not a clue and I'm involved <laugh>
     
    #317
  18. Germlands Nozzer

    Germlands Nozzer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2014
    Messages:
    11,001
    Likes Received:
    4,728
    It's a way for the clique to talk to themselves and ignore everyone else.
     
    #318
  19. Milk not bear jizz

    Milk not bear jizz Grasser-In-Chief

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2013
    Messages:
    28,193
    Likes Received:
    9,998
    I thought you two were in the clique.
     
    #319
  20. There are 316 comments so far and most are just about getting to grips with how it works! You could read the thread for the ongoing explanation or simply ****off <ok> <laugh>
     
    #320

Share This Page