The safety target is 40 points from 38 games. Realistically you cannot rely on getting anything home or away against the top 4 or away at Liverpool which means 40 points from 29 games. The first 11 games are crucial. If, as Munky says, we get 20 points from those games we will still need another 20 points from the remaining 19 games, where points should be possible, which is doable. Anything less than 16 points from the first 11 games points to a long hard season.
Gary Gowers takes a slightly different take on this, but in much the same vein: http://metro.co.uk/2015/06/17/six-key-fixtures-that-could-define-norwich-citys-season-5249719/? The most important games for me are those 'six-pointers' against teams in the bottom third, where every point gained is at the expense of our rivals.
We at least know that the team will be prepared and set up to be positive. This very fact will earn unexpected points in the course of the season. Negativity breeds negativity.
and, I'm afraid, unfounded optimism breeds deep disappointment. We have to be realistic. We are not going to challenge for a top half place and survival can be the only objective until that is obtained. We can be as positive as we like but we won't out pass or outplay the likes of Arsenal or any of the top 4. We have got to get points off the lesser teams but, realistically, those teams have got to get points off us if they are to survive. It won't be easy.
Not a criticism of your post (because I know you were just highlighting your prediction), but I actually think it's (slightly) misquoting to only take those words of Neil's. What he said is a bit more interesting than your run of the mill "all Premier League games are tough" interview of the jobbing tede manager ilk. He said that all games are winnable. That's a very different mindset I feel. He approaches every game with a view that we could and, if we get it right, should win. That's great to hear, rather than falling back on some excuse of "oh they have better players"
I know where you're coming from by saying we should probably budget to gain zero points form the eight games against the top four, we certainly shouldn't be expecting to win any of those, however even under Hootun we managed to beat Arsenal and United at home and Citeh away and picked up a point at Chelsea under Neeyul Adams so I'd say while you're being realistic, you're definitely erring on the side of negativity by flatly suggesting we will score no points from those games at all because it certainly wouldn't be the most ridiculous thing in the world for us to shock some of those teams and pick up some bonus points. I agree that we'll never outpass or outplay any of the top four, but it's not always the team that passes the ball better who wins the games at the endof the day so let's not be throwing in the white towel already eh?
Unbridled? No way it does not bound TMC. I hope I have a firm rein on the upcoming season. Take the bit between the teeth and saddle some of our fellow relegation candidates. Hoping we canter to safety before the last fences are met.
To be fair Munky I did say we cannot RELY on getting any points from the top 4 which isn't a lot of difference to ' cannot budget ' for such points. Of course we might get the odd point or two out of them but there again we will drop points at home to teams we expect to beat. On that basis I stand by my overall assessment especially regarding the first 11 games.
I can't remember the last time 40 points was needed to stay up either - any ideas Cruyffy? Edit: 2002/3 apparently when West Ham went down with 42. They managed 40 last year and finished 13th. Any team who has ever finished with 41 points (happened 12 times) has always stayed up, and ending with 40 points gives you an almost 95% chance of survival So basically 16 points from the first 11 games - bearing in mind we have to play those 11 games again later in the season - would be far from a disaster, however 20 would have us sitting very pretty indeed.
Here's a graphic showing the hardest and easiest games in Norwich City's fixtures. Those 4 straight in Oct/Nov look tricky, but otherwise the tough games seem to be reasonably spread out. please log in to view this image
Nice piece of work Rick. However, there will be a few surprises and I wonder how Palace will run after their great second half of the season? It will make for an interesting first game for sure.
