OK - Lets move on and get real

Discussion in 'Newcastle United' started by Geordieginola, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Geordieginola

    Geordieginola Well-Known Member

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    We need to move on and start planning as:
    • Kenyon does not have the money to buy the club so can we please forget about it;
    • There are no other interested parties worth their salt in the mix;
    • Ashley does not really want to sell really;
    • We will not sign any players of enough quality to help us avoid relegation;
    • I THINK WE WILL GET RELEGATED;
    • There is no money to spend (somehow)
    • Rafa is most certainly going to leave at the end of the season;
    • This month is going to be totally **** results wise;
    • Transfer fees are going through the ****ing roof and we cannot compete - END OF STORY;
    • We play the most turgid football in the history of the premiership;
    • It is not entertaining at all, I think most of us are bored out of their skull;
    • The club appear to be treating it's staff members like utter trash;
    • The club are treating us like trashy morons;
    • The actual club facilities are falling to bits;
    • There is no investment coming to improve anything;
    • There is nothing optimistic for us to look forward to;
    • There are no good (enough) young players coming through the ranks;
    • It is **** being a NUFC fan.
    So there, can we all just agree with my points above, all collectively get on the same page and accept that we will have a **** club for the foreseeable future.

    We will most likely end up being a championship club (yes I have accepted this) in the future because we just cannot compete with other teams due to the sheer prices of players. This comment is not a WUM comment but more an actual fact. There are many clubs in the championship now with Billionaire owners who want a slice of the pie so we may as well accept it is all about the money.

    Nothing more, nothing less!

    GG
     
    #1
  2. RobEllious

    RobEllious Well-Known Member

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    Right lads GeordieGinola has covered every angle. It's officially the end of the forum.

    Its been nice knowing you all and keep in touch.....is something I would say if you weren't all such contemptible ****s!
     
    #2
  3. Geordieginola

    Geordieginola Well-Known Member

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    I spat my tea all over the place when I read this!
     
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  4. J J McClure

    J J McClure I’m with ‘him’......
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    Get some Muesli down you fella.
     
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  5. Lord Jonjomort

    Lord Jonjomort Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley does want to sell, just about, but nobody's willing or able to meet the terms of paying off his loan. Apart from that, it's all spot on.
     
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  6. haslam

    haslam Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley is willing to sell if some idiot is happy to offer him significantly over the actual value of the club. I think if he actually wanted to sell then it would have happened by now; until he lowers his ego and passion to rip someone off then we're not moving hands. Can you see it happening, because I can't.
     
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  7. Lord Jonjomort

    Lord Jonjomort Well-Known Member

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    It's just my view I've expressed before, but we're stuck because of the financial situation. We're the only club with a debt "owed" solely to its' owner, the only club accepting staggered payments but paying up front, the only club without a serviceable overdraft facility - probably in the world!

    It puts us in a very uniquely disastrous position where we are entirely Ashley's bitch. I don't work in finance, so others are better qualified to confirm or deny, but in my limited experience you cannot get investment to pay off debt. You can transfer debt, but our "loan" is so astronomical in terms of amount vs value of club you're just not going to be able to 'borrow' the £110m needed to pay Mike off. He's talking about "staggered" payments, but as I understand it he means broken into two or three tranches repayable in a year or two, max. The club cannot generate that kind of revenue so Mike literally has us by the balls.

    It may be this is deliberate. It probably is, but to what end isn't clear. Is he saying "well, poor me, I've got no choice but to use profit to pay off the money I'm owed - I'm trying to sell, but nobody has the cash to pay me back so until we're squared off my hands are tied"? He might be. I'm pretty sure he took about £15m in 2017 and has either taken or plans to take another £30m which reduces the amount "owed" to somewhere near £90m. Perhaps this is just where we are - and why it's vital we stay up this season. If we stay up, we make another stack of cash and whilst none will be invested in players, if it's another £40M to the fatman we can start to get to a level where the club can and will be bought.

    I'd be very interested to know the numbers. HMRC are too, but I'd really like someone to find out how much he's owed and what it will take for him to disappear. Hell, can we sell Lascelles and Shelvey to speed it all up?! This loan/repayment scenario is the only thing I can see holding things up. There's also glaring errors in the accounts as well, which suggest he may have taken considerably more money out of the club last Summer too.
     
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  8. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    I don't think Ashley is the problem in the sale. We just appear to be attracting chancers with no real substance behind them. I mean he's an utter **** but this notion that he is over valuing the club is subjective. The value of the club is difficult to pinpoint with a great deal of accuracy. Hence valuations at the last juncture had a variance of about 100m the last time the press and financial institutions were trying to work it out.

    I have a different view on the clubs value to a few on here. Every owner that leaves a football club does so wanting to recover their entire investment unless the club is plummeting quickly. He spent 263m on loans and the purchase from what I understand. I don't know if that has increased or fallen. That was 12 years ago or something. In that time football has gone through the financial ceiling. So right off the bat 300m would seem a reasonable starting point just on the basics. Ah but the clubs debt is his problem and shouldn't be included in the price. Don't be so ****ing stupid. This isn't some charity situation, its business. Get over it, Sir John Hall and Freddie Shepherd saddled the club with a load of debt, he doesn't want to pick up their tab.

    Then you look at football in that time. The value of PL clubs has sky rocketed in the main. Then you look at the value to Ashley himself which is essentially one of the most important components whether our supporters can get their head round it or not. The value to him is huge because he happens to own one of the biggest sporting goods businesses in the UK. Having a PL football club attached is an absolute money spinner. It is now opening up international markets for him. The value of SD I assume has gone up ever since his purchase of NUFC, and probably still is doing. Now that is not entirely down to NUFC, but its one component and you don't start taking the components away unless someone is willing to pay you over the odds.

    All in all, a fag packet calculation tells you 300m is the minimum a sane person would ask for in his situation.
     
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  9. Geordieginola

    Geordieginola Well-Known Member

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    I get your reasoning but the simple fact is NO-ONE is willing to pay it.
     
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  10. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    Until they are, he won't sell and its completely understandable. I hate Mike Ashley for a lot of things, but wanting 300m plus for NUFC is not one of them. I personally have struggled to believe he wants to sell. I don't understand why he would want to, it makes no business sense at all.
     
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  11. Geordieginola

    Geordieginola Well-Known Member

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    You would think he would want to protect his asset though and keep its value at £300m. Not investing in players is crazy.
     
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  12. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    Why? He is not losing any money. Football is not like a normal business. If you owned a normal business worth 300m, and invested 50m, you'd expect to see a nice return. If you gave Rafa 50m, could I say hand on heart we'd be guaranteed to finish higher than if we didn't? Being honest no. Partly because Rafa is proven to be pretty poor in the transfer market, but mainly because 50m in football in now **** all. So then you say well what if I invested 100m. You're never getting it back because again all 100m would do is guarantee you wouldn't be relegated. Unless you have someone willing to either invest 200m in the playing staff, or an owner willing to just gift hundreds of millions, I can't see much rationale. Now you might want to protect your asset if this was your sole business and the majority of your own income was invested. However when its just an aside interest to help promote your main business, then you'll do that to the extent its viable. He is making money off the back of Newcastle the whole time. In his mind he can bounce back from relegation at the first attempt so he suffers no real loss because of parachute payments and so on.

    I know the above is a depressing read but I can't see it any other way.
     
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  13. G4rdToonArmy

    G4rdToonArmy Well-Known Member

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  14. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    Always been the case. That loyalty is also our downfall. The clubs fans are a soft touch. For all people revere the support, the reality is that throughout time owners have often taken a lend. We've never had someone with the money who just wants to sugar daddy the club. I mean people thought Sir John Hall was. Maybe initially but he soon lost interest in throwing good money after bad and saddled it with debt instead.

    I end up back at the same point. I want someone who is going to take a long term view if nothing else. Invest heavily in the youth system to at least make us as close as you can get to self sufficient. I don't mean get us up to scratch with the others. I mean really invest and have world class state of the art facilities. Be a leader in this field. If we had that I could live with us not being rich enough to compete in the transfer market if we had that. The reality is we have nothing.
     
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  15. Geordieginola

    Geordieginola Well-Known Member

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    The investment should have been YEARS ago. Then the club may have been worth £600 million now. If he had done some investing say 5-8 years ago we could have been selling players at 30m+ like some of the other clubs. We just fell behind with a cronic lack of investment and now what we have is a shell of a ****hole with no talent and lots of dross.

    I still maintain. A club is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
     
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  16. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    It really isn't though. How can it be? The club as a vehicle for SD's growth has been and is worth a helluva lot to Mike Ashley. To me the value of something is always determined by 2 factors. The marrying of what someone is willing to pay for it, and what the other person values it at. It is not solely a buyers market. Nor is any industry really. You have peaks and troughs for each party but the two always have to be married.

    The investment from your point of view should have been years ago. You're a supporter though. To Mike Ashley he is considerably richer now than when he bought NUFC. Therefore he would argue he has invested just the right amount.
     
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  17. JoKeR ...in the pack

    JoKeR ...in the pack Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't abandon all hope but the takeover looks dead in the water.
    The Sun were reporting that Kenyon is asking for people who have £1m to invest, to join his merry bunch.
    Even if he ever does manage to scrape the money together, there will be no money to improve the squad.
    Pointless?
    Sort of. Long term it could work out, assuming Newcastle United can avoid the drop again.
     
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  18. Darren Peacocks Ponytail

    Darren Peacocks Ponytail Well-Known Member

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    You never know - the way Dubravka is playing for the whole of 2018 then we may have one £30M+ player.
     
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  19. Warm Pouch

    Warm Pouch Better than JPF

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    Nah its pointless, there is no money there. The best you could hope for is him saddling the club with a load of debt a la Shepherd/Hall. I'd prefer to wait for a proper investor. I mean its pretty pointless all round for me as I'm far from convinced that he wants to sell, and Kenyon/Staveley etc are not Ashley stooges.
     
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  20. I am Groot returns

    I am Groot returns I insist on a ban NOW please mods!!
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    Doesn’t matter if there is no money there as there isn’t any money here now.

    Over time money would build up to be used and in the short term you’d hopefully have owners who wanted the Club to thrive in its own right. Yes they’d be in to make a profit and I have no problem with that but realistically they will appreciate the need to speculate to accumulate and it would be a long term investment and return strategy.

    I also think Ashley is keen to sell but only at his price. I don’t accept any of the garbage about only to someone who can take us on to the next level. Given his past positions Kenyon will have to have fallen pretty far to simply be in as an Ashley stooge.

    Also agree with Lord J’s comments as to why I think the financing is proving a problem namely the size debt being taken on as it doesn’t matter if it is an interest free loan or not, it’s still debt.
     
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