All hail, Alonso! Hail to thee, champion of the world! Fair is foul and foul is fair. Hover through fog and filthy air.
A lot of thoughts racing through my head right now so I thought I'd write it all down: The start It doesn't look like there's much of an advantage between the clean side and dirty side, especially with rain overnight. If the start is dry, Vettel will probably get past Webber at the start. Vettel fans will probably be a bit anxious with Massa starting only one place behind Vettel, but if Webber has his usual average-to-bad start it's likely that Vettel and Webber will be wheel-to-wheel in the run to the first corner, leaving Massa with nowhere to go. If Webber gets a bad start, Vettel will get past and Massa will have to follow Vettel. So Vettel is safe unless he gets a bad start himself. It could happen if the pressure gets to him but I can't see that happening, in spite of Hamilton's comments today. If the start is wet he could lose a place to Massa. I don't know how good Vettel's or Webber's starts are in wet conditions but Massa's starts have always been good and Ferrari's practice starts at Silverstone were very good. Alonso realistically will gain at least one place regardless of the conditions. That should put him right behind Webber, Vettel or Massa (who'll let him past asap). Wet Race If we have intermediate or wet tyre conditions I don't think it's too unrealistic to expect Alonso to be the quickest man on the track regardless of setup - first of all because he knows what's at stake and secondly because the F2012 is the only car that has proven to be consistently fast in wet conditions, whether its in practice, qualifying or the race). For what it's worth I suspect Ferrari have gone for a full wet setup (ie more than just high rear wing angle) on Alonso's car, making the suspension softer which is why Alonso struggled so much with understeer in the second sector compared to everyone else (including his teammate). If the tracks drys enough for teams to switch to slicks, I'd expect Senna, Hamilton and the Ferrari's to be the quickest on the track, as those guys were the fastest in the early part of Q1. The drier the track gets, the more competitive Red Bull and JB will be. Dry Race If for some reason we get a bone dry track, Hamilton should have the pace to easily win, Vettel should be able to finish on the podium and Alonso should have the race pace to move up to 5th. But knowing Alonso he'll probably end up on the podium at least so Vettel needs to be in the top four to make sure Alonso doesn't steal the title with a miracle Valencia-style drive. I'm sure Red Bull will make it clear to him that the most important thing is to get the car to the finish line, even if that means yielding to an aggressive challenge from Alonso behind. Other thoughts Safety car - We'll probably get a safety car at some point which will definitely benefit Alonso if its a dry race, assuming that Red Bull and McLaren have superior race pace to Ferrari. It could also be championship saver for Vettel/Alonso if one of them runs into trouble earlier in the race. It could also end the hopes of one of the contenders if they mess up the restart and make a careless move. Championship odds - Red Bull have had 3 in-race alternator failures out of a possible 38 (7.8%). Alonso needs to outscore Vettel by more than 13 points - he has done this 4 times out of 19 (21%) - but two of those times were because of alternator failures, so... chances of Alonso winning the championship are 0.105 + 0.078 = 18.3% (I haven't done probability in a long time so someone please correct me if my math is wrong).
The way the Vettelots are clutching at straws, you'd think it was their driver 13 points behind and starting 4 (now 3) places back on the grid.
Start: Rolling start/Safety car Lap 1/2/3/4... : The race starts Seb gets given 3rd place by Mark, Seb then starts to settle into the pace and then drives his own race behind both McLarens. Webber then keeps kicking up the spray against Massa while Seb just shadows both McLarens for pace and keeps in the clear air that is left from Lewis and Jenson who will probably fight each other till the end, maybe by themselves. Alonso will likely dispatch Hulk within a few laps (lap 8-9) but the top 3 are probably already 8-9 seconds ahead at that point and with the added spray where he is he will probably lose it for a couple of laps until things start to settle. Massa continues pressure on Webber, probably nothing will happen here since none are under pressure, think all the accidents will happen behind the top 8 Kimi and Alonso will likely avoid something coming their way just in time from 2 rows back. McLaren wont blow a likely 1-2 knowing Seb will unlikely want to challenge them if he is 3rd (RBR wont let him massage his ego trying to win this race and damage something), his job is just to stay ahead of Alonso now and pace the car to the end. Webber could be a big help, RBR might just allow Webber to run off into the distance with the McLarens and let him do all the work of not allowing Alonso to get on the podium since he needs the podium. All 3 of them aren't under pressure so they will unlikely make an error all race compared with what Seb and Alonso are experiencing right then. Seb might be under more pressure at the start than Alonso, but after 20-30 odd laps and if Alonso is still 6th-7th then the pressure will start mounting on Alonso and coming off Seb. Hulk might want revenge on what happend at Austin but he will will only fight Alonso harder than usual but nothing major to deal with. And yes this is Interlargos, but I would rather be in 3rd/4th than 7th which is in the firing line and behind Kimi Raikkonen.
Australia 2010 wasn't a rolling start. Neither was Hungary 2011. Only heavy rain (which isn't forecasted) will result in a rolling start.
It's amazing how 2012 has consisted of parts of the biggest signatures of the last few seasons. We've had the amazing unpredictability of 2010, a period of Vettel's dominance from 2011, McLaren falling over themselves from 2007. I thought we were missing something from 2008 but no, to go out with a bang, we were handed the 2008 finale. In Brazil, in the wet, with two drivers in similar positions that Hamilton and Massa were in. Even if Vettel wins the WDC, I'll still admit that this season has had everything. It's amazing it's gone so quickly, but I suppose time flies when you're having fun.
Grrr, i can't sleep, i'm nervously excited about tomorrow. Come on Seb, show captain mono-brow who's boss.
A lot of people on twitter like Benson reporting blue skies in Interlagos, knew it would be an anti climax
