I can't see anything other than a Tory win and possibly another Lib Dem bed in. I'd ordinarily vote Labour but I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole at the moment. I would happily have it stay the same as I think both have done exceptionally well given the circumstances. The Lib Dem have gotten their way on some really good issues.Both are stopping the other from doing anything stupid or too politically motivated just to fit their belief system. Personally, I'd be cutting the Police, Military and Fire budgets and freeze the NHS for a couple of years. What this country needs for a long term future is massive investments in Education, self sufficient energy, Sciences, Engineering, and Creativity. That is where our long term future lies, Intelligence and being able to make expensive things. How on earth are UKIP going to build business relationships with Europe, Asia, Africa after they try and kick them out. You have got to be some kind of ****ing moron to to still vote for them after a full consideration (unless you are doing it solely as a protest vote).
Labour won 29% in 2010 with a deeply unpopular leader,bad feeling over the Iraq war and a collapsing world economy and another party of the centre-left taking 23%.Since then Labour has gained votes from the LD's and lost fewer to UKIP than the Tories have. I understand the gut feelings but the figures just don't bear them out.Add in an unbalanced electoral system that means that Cameron has to win an extra 5% just to match Labour in terms of seats and I think the writing is on the wall for Dave. Farage isn't going to deal with him. I know that they have more in common with one another but it's a bit like next May with (Say) Middlesbrough fighting for second place with Ipswich.Who are we going to be cheering for? Strangely this could be the election that everybody loses.
Closer to Europe? I don't think even Folkestone's a dead cert for them - a week's a long time in politics let alone several months. But if you were to push me for a guess now I'd say they will win Clacton (obviously...), Folkestone and two others (neither of which I think will be Rochester). And that would be a very impressive result, they'd have a right to celebrate, but it won't be nearly enough to get them into the executive.
Now that's just where you are wrong. Labour's reduced share in Scotland pulls down their share in England disproportionately and in England they will be doing rather better. I have studied every election since 1970. If you want a wider take look at UK Polling Report.
What we don't know of course is what Labour voters will do in a Tory constituency where their own candidate stands no chance. Do they vote UKIP to deseat the Tory? I know what I would do.
As I said earlier, that could go either way. But even then they can win an outright majority with something like 36% of the English vote, whereas Tories need something like 39% (figures completely made up but you get my point - there's a disparity). I think it's a lot more wishful thinking from you I'm afraid JWM, and I don't mean that in an unpleasant way - the system favours Labour, especially if people like you with a genuine affinity to UKIP don't do the expected (i.e. don't revert to the Tories at the last minute): http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/why-odds-are-still-labour-victory-2015 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/p...conservative-party-to-win-a-majority-in-2015/ Agree strongly with most of Carrabuh's post (apart from freezing the NHS budget), but I think if you look at it carefully the idea that it is a guaranteed Tory win next year is far too simplistic.
I reluctantly agree, they would be terrible. Ed Balls has no moral fibre whatsoever and Ed Milliband offers little interest to anyone. If the tories just cut out the stupid interference from the old Thatcherites and just stayed in the middle I'd probably vote for them. The trouble is, same with any Government after being in a term, they start to impose to much of their own ideals onto everyone. The far right and the far left, both as selfish as each other.
Labour stand very little chance of making any headway in the South of England and with their proposed Mansion TAX which is really a TAX on London and the South East, I can't really see them making any gains. The Midlands is the real battleground and they are doing well in some of the marginals but their lead is diminishing in some of they key swing seats such as Nuneaton and Dudley North, Cannock, Bury North, Bolton West so it's all to play for. UKIP are now within a whisker of taking Middleton and in some polling analysis I have seen they are pushing Labour very hard in places like Rotherham and even Doncaster! If Labour are going to be the next Government they should have won the Rochester seat instead of coming a poor third. They should have held Middleton with a very comfortable majority instead of clinging on grimly! They are not fit to govern and the public as a whole know it.
Vote green? I think this scaremongering, what if's and the like are merely people seeing the negatives in what might happen. As Carrabuh said, to vote UKIP you have to either be a moron or in a position where UKIP are the only party to truly represent your interests (I.e. you are someone who is fighting for jobs with immigrants). When it comes to GEs, these people are actually fewer than you might think. People, quite simply, tend to vote based on what they are expected to vote. That sound ridiculous, but what it means is that polls are inaccurate and represent what people say they're prepared to do if they don't have to face the consequences - it's a bit like taking a poll whereby you ask people: if you saw someone being beaten up, would you get involved and try to stop it? A lot of people would answer yes, but if push came to shove (ho ho) I suspect the number answering yes would be a lot higher than those who actually would. Obviously that's an extreme, but basically those voters who say they would vote UKIP just to keep the Tories out are probably substantially higher than those who actually will...
A £3k A year TAX bill I think will sway quite a few people especially those that are asset Rich but cash poor. It will kill the property market at the same time and is pretty nasty and vindictive. The super rich will find ways of avoiding it and others will just leave the country altogether and take their wealth with them.
I must admit the Tories have done a fairly good job of keeping out the ****ing Christians and their traditional family. Did they ever put in the extra benefits for married people? or did the Lib Dems stop it?
Coming in late on this one, but my views are similar to CT's. The LDs will lose at least half their seats, IMO. The Tories don't have a majority now and will lose a lot of votes from their far right fringe to UKIP so have a lot to do to form a government. That makes it a very open election which is hard to call. Another hung parliament seems most likely.
Yeah I think so. Did anyone watch QT? Bit disappointing as I was hoping for more handbags, but there was an absolute nutter with blue hair who screamed "Farage I'm coming for you"
I watched it, l loved it when brand was challenged to put up, oh did he squirm. He has a few soap box sound bites but so little actual debating power beyond well scripted responses someone probably writes and researches for his online tirades. Doesn't mean he doesn't have the odd good point though. Bah!
