Depends on how well British teams do. Basically, as much as it may annoy, we need Man City, Arsenal & Man U to go as far as possible. Even need Liverpool, West Ham, Brighton & Villa to do well. The higher the UEFA coefficient, the more likely 5th is CL. If however Italy, Spain Etc get a lot of teams through to the later rounds, the more likely they are to have a higher coefficient and therefore an extra CL spot