Having just watched the race I would have to be in agreement that had you changed jockeys on those horses today the placing's would have been reversed, exactly as they would have if you did the same with Tagroodah and Tapestry. This is not a dig at O'Brian and Hanagan however but more testament to Ryan Moore. He really is the AP McCoy of the flat in that he is determined, never out thinks himself, never gives up and can seem to squeeze 10 % more from some horses. It is possible to make criticism of young Joseph today if wanting to be critical as it was probably unnecessary to ask the horse to travel wide throughout. Were I riding in that race my view is the track is as wide as a runway, it's not a big field and we have a strong pace and so the likelihood of trouble in running is minimal, in short there was no pressure on the jockey to take action that caused the horse to travel further than anything else. It's possible that over confidence in the horse caused him to be more worried about trouble and losing as an unlucky horse rather than give away a little ground. He could however so easily have tucked himself in and travelled with some cover and also cover lass ground. The two rides were actually the exact opposite in that JOB chose to travel wide throughout and cross over when making his run, whilst RM chose to tuck in to save ground and pull out for his run, this decision and Ryan Moores almost unique (can't forget Sir jim Crowley) made the difference. What was most difficult to understand however was were you to watch the race without prior form you would definitely say the winner simply outstayed the runner up, who had the superior burst of speed. This is hard to understand when recalling the Derby however when Australia was tested with regard his ability to stay 12f by a now clear full of Stamina St Leger winner. Australia is better than today but once again not a wonder horse, I do believe we will see him put this blip behind him and impress once again however. One final footnote is that much credit must go to Kevin Ryan and the Great Gatsby who without wanting to offend is not Group one to the eye and yet has won the French Guineas and now this Irish Group 1. I think he is getting the best from the horse and deserves credit. This is my analysis anyway, for what it's worth.
Best horse on the day won, was going away at the finish in a truly run race, no excuses for anyone. Obviously Moore would have managed to steal it on Australia, if JOB was on TGG, just like he would have got the job done on Taghrooda. Not much between the horses on this evidence. Both winners of average Derby's.
Boris, im one of the biggest doubters when AOB bigs one up and I know Aussie has been beaten today, but do you honestly think he is nowhere near Arc level? I think Coolmore have faffed around with him too much. He is bred to be a serious middle distance horse and to excel over a mile and a half. He has natural speed so all they need to do is relax him in a mile and a half race and press the button as late as possible. The front two have quickened up lovely today and its the first time Aussie has had a battle since Newmarket. A patient ride in the Arc and I think he could be a major player. What odds would you lay? (not a challenge, purely looking for a layers perspective)
Australia is by Galileo out of Ouija Board - hardly a surprise on breeding if he gets tapped for speed over 10F (unless you are blinded by the hype of him having the "speed" to finish 2nd in the 2000GNS - something akin to my lad finishing 8th behind Usain Bolt as a 4 year old in a 30m sprint). Australia should take his chance in the Arc, he needs a trip. Be a great fight between him and the fillies.
Not sure what they were doing running Tapestry over a mile. Ran a good race, jockey giving up when squeezed out. Strange Arc prep if you ask me; a bit like GN hopes having a prep race over hurdles.
I don't believe Australia has a lack of speed for 10f, I would say it is his optimum as in theory his kick could be blunted over 12f. My suspicion is that he won a reasonably poor Derby and did nothing but confirm his superiority it in the Irish version. I think his best piece of form is the Lockinge which in theory he should have confirmed today. Had the jockeys been reversed as we have mentioned we would probably have seen him win half a length after having to dig in. I believe if he came up against true 12f quality horses in the Arc, especially on softish ground he would also come undone and demonstrate his Derby win was ok but nothing more. His target in my opinion should be the Champion Stakes, I am also not against the idea of taking on Kingman over the mile with some two serious pacemakers. In fact if they want to gamble for some serious credibility for the horse that should be the route. His bubble has burst in as much as he cannot be hailed a great horse with his current form and like Camalot on this day two years ago he needs try and recover which Camalot tried in the Arc unsuccessfully.
That's always been my view Toppy. But I got the strong impression that he wouldn't be running in the Arc as AOB and JOB said his optimum distance was a mile/mile and a quarter. Personally, like you, I think they are both wrong.
Of course he is up to running in the Arc Toppy, he is still the best middle distance colt, im just at the wind up a bit to the Irish who have been lording it up for long enough this season with their Powers n what not. They got it handed to them in their own backyard tonight, throughout the card, on their big night. Hes obviously not the Nijinsky they wanted us to think he was, we saw the bottom of him tonight and it was not what the hype promised. Still a brilliant colt, up there with New Approach id say, just behind him for me, but not with Sea The Stars and Frankel. He never looked to have the gears of an Arc winner for me, neither did Taghrooda, they just didnt look Arc types to me, could be wrong obviously and the race has fallen apart this year. Hard to put a price on it at this stage with him looking an unlikely runner and with the field still unknown. He would be one of the best horses in the race and if those in the betting just now all turned up on the day id have him about 5/1 - 6/1 second fav. And if Treve gets beat tomorrow id have it 5/1 the field. It really is starting to look a very winnable race with major doubts about the classiest horses for different reasons. Im hoping Treve pulls it out the fire this season and returns to the horse of last year but I still have my doubts about that happening. I honestly believe if she was the same filly as last year she should be evens - 6/4 for what this is turning in to. Tapestry as short as 10/1 tells you everything about the race. Perhaps there will be a shake up tomorrow, Ectot or Teletext maybe.
That was a dramatic change of opinion Boris given you didn't think he had a chance the last day and now you got £400 on it to win at 10's. Well done. For what it's worth, I think they went too hard up front which is why the best two horses were dropped out the back. Joseph did not ride an intelligent race because his positioning the whole was round was pathetic. I rarely criticise him because i actually think he's a good jockey, particularly when riding from the front, but today's ride reminded me of some of the crap you see in lady amateur races at Pontefract. Really sub standard imho. Some of us have believed in The Grey Gatsby for a long time. Personally, i'm delighted he managed to pull off a famous win. They're both top quality animals in my eyes. The most interesting fallout from the race could be jockey bookings in the future. How on Earth can Coolmore allow a jockey like Ryan Moore (the best i've ever seen on the flat) to ride for other stables against them when they could easily slap a fat contract in his lap even if that contract allowed him to pick and choose his rides in Ireland. Surely it's better to over pay him to sit at home mid week if it ensures he's on their best when it matters.
If yous are writing off Australia's Arc chances (I did about 2 months when it was blatantly obvious after the Derbies he was done at 12f) you can completely, completely write of Taghrooda's chances! Mukhadram beaten 3 lengths by Taghrooda in the King George has been soundly beaten 7 or 8 lengths by Australia TWICE yet people say tonight's race was ****e? What does that make the King George?!! Some serious rubbish from the usual on here.... The Arc looks pretty average now as the cards have been played. Sea the Moon out doesn't make huge difference to me as he looked to have the gears of a tractor anyway. Taghrooda has beaten G2 animals a few lengths and been beaten by the first proper Grade 1 animal she met. She reeks of a place lay to me. Treves reputation is based on one freakish performance, which she's never came remotely close to repeating before or after. I'm frigged if I know what wins it. The 3 yo colts are holding sway so perhaps Kingston Hill on softish going as as good a chance as any.
Treve's reappearance performance is seriously under rated. Losing by basically nothing to Cirrus on soft at Longchamp over 10f. I'm struggling to see an issue with that run to be perfectly honest.
Exactly Bob, someone's been on Twitter copying and pasting bets I suspect! A new level of after timing, especially for one who slated the Grey Gatsby! 'Won the worst French Derby of all time' was one of his critiques of that horse when he was cribbing the Juddmonte. Porky pies again I doubt
My only worry about Treve is the ground tomorrow. I hope it has a bit of juice and a good covering of grass. If it is too firm she will either be pulled or the jockey instructed to look after her with a view to being able to run in the Arc, hoping for decent ground then. If she runs in the Arc with no give in the ground I suspect it will be her last race.
The price was just too big Bob, I underrated the horse before York, after having overrated him as a 2yo before York! and after watching the Juddmonte again, he could have got a bit closer despite Australia winning easily. Obviously like everyone else I expected Australia to win, took a chance and got paid this time. The Irish are in fits of rage it seems. The truth is, if I had 40k on Australia to pick up 10 I would have needed locking up for JOB's safety. Absolutely horrendous ride, should never have been beaten, a shocking ride by JOB, and a great ride by Moore is what it took to get him beat, but if he was the horse they thought he was he would have still won, dont think anyone will disagree with that. The only reason id have Australia as short as 5-6 is because the weakness of the race.
Agree Bob. It was very soft I think and a race fit CDA only just held on by a nk. Over 12f she would have won. The Ascot race can be ignored - distance too short, moving uncomfortably before the race (should have been withdrawn), apparently pulled a muscle during the race (not convinced but will take their word for it) yet still managed to break the course record. That spells one incredibly tough filly. Given her ground (soft/ good to soft) she is probably unbeatable over 12f.
No mate, i wasn't having a dig at Boris. I'll take his bet at face value. There's no real benefit in posting those anyway. People are suspicious either way. I'd love to know his bookie though. I'm struggling to get a decent sized bet on at the minute so that info could be gold dust.
Well done. Agree about Joseph. How much has that ride cost them? Seriously? He's at stud next year surely so there's max 1 opportunity to get another group one into him. He really should be unbeaten over these middle distances. For what it's worth again, JFK looks terrific to my eye. He extended beautifully today and the race was over almost instantly. Certainly the best 2yo they have. You don't register the name JFK then sit on it for a few years to give it to anything other than an absolute monster.
Exactly. It was firm ground and she was beaten by The Fugue and Magician. It was disappointing but not the end of the world. If she balls it up tomorrow then i'll give up on her but as it stands why mess about looking for something to beat her. The 2 best 3 year old middle distance horses ran against each other today and won't be at the Arc. The 4 year old colts are a load of nothing. Flintshire - slow. Ruler of the World - gritty but not good enough. I looked at the Foy tomorrow and genuinely started thinking, what if Kingsbarns started to show something again. On soft ground with a decent draw, he could be a challenger. That's how average this group are. It basically boils down to Treve versus the Japanese horses and none of them are having a prep run in France. That is obviously a mistake. So basically to sum up, Treve's runs haven't been that bad. The first was excellent. The second can be forgotten. She's up against nothing from Europe and under prepared horses from Japan. She's proven over course, track and likely ground. She was unbelievable in the race last year. As it stands before her prep race i honestly think she's a proper bet and i'm tempted to get some money on her now with the assumption she's going to win tomorrow because those horrible bookies chappies will hammer her price if she wins the Vermeille.
