My vote is for Alonso. Ferrari are very competitive on lower downforce circuits and Red Bull don't have many corners where they can gain an advantage. Ferrari have a new front wing for this race (revealed by Ferrari's twitter account lol): please log in to view this image EDIT: The FW resembles the Lotus (good work Allison!!). Also Ferrari have their Canada-spec nosecone.
Mercedes are bringing a whole new design of a low downforce package after Spa which is suspected to be even better now, so watch out tifosi!
Voted for Hamilton. Traditionally a weaker RB circuit and a stronger one for Merc, so i reckon that will swing it. (though with my 1/11 hit rate i'm pretty likely to be wrong)
Sadly for the tifosi it is well known in the Mercedes camp we were set up with a hybrid setup 50/50 rather than a dry setup like the rest of the grid were for the race We aren't going anywhere Mr Anderson we will get pole again and stay there this time round *Hmmm 10/1 for Alonso on pole with Felipe at 66/1 eh? them pretty good odds IMO! Really tempted!
The closest track to Monza we've been to this year is China; Hamilton was on pole and went backwards (finishing 3rd), Alonso won. I suspect the same will happen here, even if Mercedes' updates do what they're supposed to do, therefore Alonso is my vote. Vettel may have won last time out but Spa is a medium downforce circuit which suits the Red Bull - Monza really is top speed or bust - plus while he's very good at Spa, he's never been a Monza specialist, I think he'll be on the podium though. Whatever happens it should be a cracking race.
This time I find myself in no-man's land. These are my fundamental considerations: 1/ The way teams have developed this season. 2/ Engine power/torque, balanced against braking efficiency and minimal downforce*. 3/ Tyre wear (yes, I believe it's still a factor). 4/ A chassis' capacity to ride kerbs together with its braking efficiency and a driver's ability to marry the two. 5/ Monza is the simplest of all GP circuits. For these reasons, before Monza's practice sessions get underway, I find it a bit close to call. Then again, I am not actually expecting the closest of fights because I think whoever strikes the best balance might stride off into the distance. Based on the above, it is almost inevitable that three favourites emerge**: 1. Immediately after the summer break, Mercedes looked good but this was at least partially due to Vettel taking a dip behind slower-runners (especially Button). After that, Spa showed us Red Bull probably have the bases covered; besides, who in his right mind would bet against Adrian Newey? Conclusion: Red Bull (Vettel) or Mercedes (Hamilton). 2 & 3. Engine v aero v tyres. On paper it might seem a toss of the coin between Mercedes and Red Bull but we should not forget Ferrari can come up with the best compromise on home tarmac. 4. In terms of the most compliant chassis, this circuit probably favours Red Bull but there is a dark-horse, one which runs light-of-foot and with minimal tyre wear: Lotus. In terms of outright driving ability, we should consider the last of the late-brakers: Hamilton, as well as Räikkönen and probably the most strategic thinker: Alonso. I would include Button here if he were in a more competitive car but given the current McLaren, I do not see him mounting a realistic challenge for top spot this year. I see Red Bull as the best chassis and surely no-one can still doubt Vettel and his exploitation of track limits after the apex (ahem… but I also see Hamilton as best able to marry braking with kerbs. 5. This is a team thing. It is far less simple than it appears and may easily give an advantage to Ferrari. However, ultimately I think the best thinking will come from Red Bull's uncompromising goal-mindedness. *Minimal downforce should not be confused with aerodynamic efficiency. **In my opinion, Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso.
I'm hoping for a 1-3 or a 2-3 for Ferrari, if it happens I win big money! I've found an exploit in WilliamHill online betting. Ferrari double podium is at 8/1 and Ferrari to score less than 42.5 points is at 17/20 Potentially you can get 150% of what you own as if you put 83% of your money on the less than 42.5 points and the other 17% on the double podium from £100 you will get £153 from both of them. (So either way you win money) And the best thing? It's impossible for none of these things to happen so you're guaranteed to win, and if they get a 1-3 or 2-3 they both happen so you make a 200% profit! So for recap: 1-2 for Ferrari - 8/1 bet win 1-3 - 8/1 and 17/20 2-3 - 8/1 and 17/20 Anything else - 17/20 The odds are likely to change as soon as they work this out so get it done quickly! Make sure you put the majority on the points scored though.
Fred you are a genius! so 17/20 for less than 42.5 points (which a 1-3 would only be 40 pts) I hope they don't notice before lunch
Let's say you have £100, you put £83 on the less than 42.5 points and the remaining £17 on the double podiums. Both of the outcomes are £153 or thereabouts and one of them is going to happen so you get yourself £53 profit just because I found an exploit! Now who wants to buy me a drink?
If I find anything else like it I would but I'm guessing they'll be extra careful from now on. I think they wanted to put 32.5 or less points but just made a simple mistake. Hopefully they'll do this all season from now and we can all get easy money though but the chances of that are not at all high.
