not606 Arc Trials Day Racing Thread Sunday 14th September 2014

Sunday's Meetings
Longchamp...Flat.....................8 Races.....12:30-4:25p.m
Curragh..........Flat.....................8 Races.......2:05-5:50p.m
Bath................Flat.....................7 Races.......2:15-5:25p.m
Listowel..........National Hunt....7 Races.......2:20-5:30p.m
Ffos Las.........Flat......................8 Races.......2:30-5:40p.m
Racing Post Cards
TIMEFORM Prix Vermeille Preview
Good Luck

 

Detailed weather predictions for Longchamp can be found here

 

2.05 Curragh

Discussiontofollow 7/1

I firmly believe that Mike Murphy's improving 4 year old Discussiontofollow is a Listed/Group class sprinter in the making and, if navigating his way through this big field, will take a lot of beating tomorrow. On the back of an impressive win in a valuable race at Ascot back in July, Discussiontofollow ran a credible 6th in the very competitive Stewards Cup on his last start (was slightly hampered by winner which may have cost him a place or 2) but both his trainer and I don't think he ran up to his best that day. From the trainer's site, it appears that Shane Kelly got off the last day saying he just didn't show the same turn of foot at the end of his race which could well have been down to having his 3rd race in 5 weeks and I think the yard have definitely done the right thing in giving him a 6 week break to freshen him up. Having already ran really well at The Curragh 3 starts back when an unlucky enough 3rd in a similar contest and he looks to have bagged a very nice draw in stall 20 owing to the track's bias on the track. With conditions to suit, the trainer in very decent form, and off a mark of 98 which I think he is more than capable of winning off, I'm very confident of a big performance from this son of Elusive City and if putting his best foot forward it's going to take a well handicapped horse to beat him.

 

7/4 Cursory Glance 3.40 Curragh looks, on the face of it, to be a gift from God.

Leading Light is my favourite flat horse by a mile and i've hammered the 11/10.

Doubled them up as well.

Good luck tomorrow boys and girls.

 

Leading Light, Treve, Toronado treble

Plus a single on Sir Maximillion and Roto choice

 

Leading Light. However please don't take the outside lane this time Joseph

 

I don't think it will matter tomorrow. He's such a lazy bastard that we'll probably never see how good he really is. Pale Mimosa is actually the value bet if you take a line through Estimate but i don't want to see him lose and wouldn't bet against him in any case.

 

Bob Leading Light was my Ascot banker but backed Pale Mimosa at York so slightly reluctant to oppose. Moreso, as like you say Estimate yesterday showed it was a tidy effort. Wonder is there a chance Weld doing a 'Varian' and pulling her out before race time on account of firm ground? He's very mindful of this horse.

 

Just noticed in the jumps in Listowel Mullins runs Verawal. Absolutely bolted up in Down Royal in a 3 yo maiden hurdle at Down Royal. Won't be a betting proposition I suspect but may be as close to a Triumph hurdle clue as we've seen! And yes, I'm fully aware this may not equate to huge praise at this stage

 

We saw a pretty decent Triumph Hurdle horse on that card last year

 

Extorniost is a lump on job today even more so now the man of the moment in Atzeni is onboard, All e/w winnings from Bogart yesterday are going on it £250 win single @ 4s and £200 double with Discussion To Follow 33/1 double pays

 

From what i've read from everyone posting i've done a small accumulator on:

Treve, Leading Light, Toronado, Gleneagles, Cursory Glance.

Others i fancy today are:

3:10 Curragh - Jamesie 8/1
2:05 Curragh - Zalty 10/1/Bubbly Bellini 33/1/Straight of Zanzibar 33/1
5:30 Listowel - Kalanisi King 4/1
5:50 Curragh - Gretzky 20/1

Ew on all plus combi FC/TC on the 2:05.

Best of luck all who play today

 

Hoping Cursory Glance can cement her place at the head of the market for the 1000, the Lowther looked a strong race at the time and for me she was the one to take out of it with a view to the future. She looked to be crying out for this extra furlong and the ground should be fine. This is a strong race, Cursory Glance beat Malabar and Osaila in the Albany but they have improved since, plus there is Obriens, Bolgers and even Beach Belle cant be written off just yet, things didnt really fall for her in the Pheonix but she looked a decent filly before that. I thinks its more competitive than the market is suggesting but its a race Cursory Glance has to be winning to justify being Guineas favourite.

Atzeni could have a decent chance earlier on the card with Roheryn 12/1, she looks to have a bit to do on paper up against two fillies with Group 1 form but Chicquita hasnt run for a while and Tarfasha was very disappointing last time in the Irisk Oaks. Roheryn has been getting better with every run and stepped up again last time to give Eye Of The Storm a run for his money. She had Streetcar To Stars in behind and he went on to run well behind Leading Light in a Leger trial so the form could be half decent. I wouldnt be worried about the drop back in trip or the better ground.

 

that was a 1.01 post!!

 

What does that mean Nass? Sorry, I don't understand.

 

Over at Longchamp, the Prix Niel looks an interesting race, Ectot was fancied for the French Classics but missed them and its guesswork with regards to his fitness for this, on breeding you would fancy him to stay and he could be the class of the race but im taking him on at the prices. Gallante won the Grand Prix nicely but he had his soft ground and a lovely trip round the inside, I wouldnt underestimate him but not for me today. Adelaide is another strong runner in this, couldnt dismiss him especially with Master Moore on but the suspicion is he might be best at a shorter trip. I like the look of Teletext at 11/2, he is a son of the smart filly Conference Call who might have won a Marcel Boussac had she not the misfortune of being born in same year as Zarkava. Teletext is still lightly raced, he was a bit unlucky when finishing fast in a group 3 at Chantilly and ran well in the Grand Prix behind Gallante on ground that would have been soft enough, he might be able to reverse the form on the better ground today.

 

He puts up Olly Stevens runners all the time and as lump jobs.

 

Afternoon all
whilst you all look at the good racing I will take the mundane, bath and ffos it is lol
The first at bathsees royal brave the fav go against FLYING BEAR 10/3 both jockey bookings look uninspiring but out of the two the claimer gets the thumbs up . Flying should take the drop back in trip nicely and having already beat royal I cant see there being a change. If anything the bookies look keen to keep flying as the 2nd fav

 

I've had a muggy 6/1 on Treve to win today and win the Arc. Fair enough fitness may beat her today but think if she does win today it'll prove she's at least coming back to herself. The Arc looks winnable enough even if last years win was a complete freak one-off when everything went perfect for her.

 

I thought everything went against Treve in the Arc, horrendous draw, wide and keen all the way, still destroyed them. Thats the mark of a great horse, they still get it done despite all that

And the Diane and Vermille I think shows it wasnt a one off.