Neutral point of view

Very interesting take on City from an outsider.

Could be a lot of truth in this and begs the question whether we approached this season in the right frame of mind............

http://backpagefootball.com/cardiff-city-doomed-before-a-ball-had-been-kicked/119709/

 

Well, I think we went into this season expecting to be relegated. I actually don't think many people would think otherwise. We spent enough to make ourselves a better championship team for when we go down. Financially, it is probably a sound decision. Football wise, it kind of sucks.

The only thing I will disagree with is trying to draw every game 0-0. I think Warnock is past that.

 

Give it another 5 weeks and see where we are then, i suspect we may be out of the bottom 3. I reckon we can get a shock 4th from bottom, but if that is seen as success then the ambition has totally disappeared.

 

I agree with that isaw - escaping the drop is very possible and achievable, but apparently aiming for "17th" place is fraught with danger.

The ambition to aim for safety by a larger margin seems to have been missing. All in all, I thought the above article was pretty well on the money.

There's a distinct possibility we've been over-cautious and Tan has relied on Warnock's proven battling ability at Championship level to keep us in the Prem.

 

I'm not sure we are wildly deluded, if we believe we can stay in the Premier League. It's doesn't look too hopeful at the moment, given our current position after 6 games. I do not accept the idea that we have accepted our fate and we are already relegated. I certainly do not think Warnock or the players believe this either.
The comments about buying championship players in January has some validity as no premier league player would sign for a club, if they thought they'd be relegated, unless they negotiate a King's ransom of a contract. That's not likely to happen at many clubs, never mind Cardiff. To suggest that strategy is already in place is a bit cheeky.
I'm not sure it was a case of Warnock deciding to keep faith with the squad that won us promotion, I believe the transfer market drove that decision, you only have to look at the money laid out by Wolves and Fulham to see that. We are not in the same league as they are with benefactors. The Bluebirds paid 6 million for Madine and have seen very little return in the investment. Blobby Tomlin is another example of a poor return on investment. Bobby Reid and Josh Murphy seem good investment and will grow in stature. Cunningham and Arter both have some Premier League experience'we may not have much in the way of players with Premier League experience, but those that don't are gaining that experience every week. Will it be enough for us to retain our Premier League status, only time will tell.
Our transfer dealing were driven by affordability and availability. Warnock would have tried to get players he wanted and may well have been priced out of some deals.
The European markets are a totally different situation. With Brexit coming into play on this as it will happen in March. This not only impacted the last window, it will impact the January window. The weak pound will drive up any purchase price and the availability of players once Brexit has been initiated may see a lot less EU players available, it depends what the criteria will be for foreign players is. I am not sure what impact it will have on the loan market either, that could become quite problematic as well. I think the inactivity in the transfer market has more to do with Brexit than Tan's reluctance to release funds. I don't think you can make comparisons between the 2013 and current season's transfer activity. The 3 billion pound TV deal hasn't kept transfer prices down either.
Well, that's my opinion, just as the author of the article has his opinion.

 

I see the article author is a freelance journalist. Does that make him a bit like Tomlin? Thinks he is worth more than his actual value so no mainstream paper wants him.

I'm not saying he is wrong in his views just that he has said more coherently and at greater length no more than what a lot of other naysayers have said.

I'm in Taff's camp on this. His post was also very well put and makes a lot of sense.

We know Warnock and his players, and the fans for that matter, will all sing from the same hymn sheet while the energy and effort continue at 100%. Win, lose or draw.

 

Like I said - interesting take from and outsider.

Not saying he's right or wrong, but the low level of investment in the side this summer could tend to lead fans to tend that way.

For my part I see it as a very good independant source who may be just writing a blog, but who't to say he isn't far from the truth?

Another thing Taff - I don't think "Brexit" has anything to do with it. The weak pound or not, the situation for players, whilst not immune to market forces is a different thing altogether.

 

I suspect that Warnock actually missed out on a few of his targets.
By his own admission the lad that went to Bournemouth (Lerma?) Was someone we were in for but expected to land him at about £6 mill and he went for about £24 mill....
Abraham on loan was another... so how many more???

My guess is we just didn’t want to go s##t or bust but struggled to get to somewhere in between that and where we find ourselves.

Not offloading big earners like Tomlin and Pilks won't have helped either.

We may have hit the jackpot financially but it's not a bottomless pit and old VT must be semi relieved that he can ease off keeping us afloat out of his own funds for a bit.

The article wasn't bad but I'd still say it was taking the beaten path.... especially the 0-0 bit (unless it was written pre-Arsenal).

 

My only disappointment is that we didn’t land and "Ings" type striker...

But again, when you see the money they go for, let alone the wages they command then it's not a total surprise.

You only have to look at Rambo at Arsenal to see what having a select few on big bucks can do for morale and dedication in a squad!

 

Weve spent with one eye on a return to the Championship.

If probably when we go down we will be in a far better position than last time.

 

Exactly right. The relatively low spend and actual players brought in are of a quality that will do well in the Championship but were just a speculatory punt that they would come off at Prem level. Reid and Murphy could eventually prove gems but they would have to have a huge influence this season within the retained squad that Warnock brought up.

The two loaness Camarasa and Arter are very unlikely to be with us next year and with Arter said to be easily the highest earner on an enforced £40K a week, this is Championship side trying to mug their way to safety and gain a second season in the Prem. It is certainly possible and may well come off, but what then happens next summer?

Warnock will rightly get lauded for the achievement, but Tan may have been influenced by Warnock and others at the club who rightly support him that it'll just take more of the same from last season to stay around for next year. We were a surprise package coming up but we are out of our depth in this company - and sadly, I think Warnock might be too.

 

I don’t get this we’ll be better placed next season in the championship by being relegated.

If that was the plan or intention if this season planned out like all the pundits predict, then what message is that sending to the 000’s of season ticket holders and other city fans who attend every game in the hope of seeing a win?

That article spells it out perfectly for me. As it says just what was the point of going up?

There is no guarantee city would do well in the championship. The division is full of recently relegated teams who either yo yo or just can’t get promoted despite spending shedloads.

The writing was on the wall, if not when the pre season schedule was announced, then when the only signings were a few champions players, one out of favour journeyman and an unknown Spaniard.

This has the makings of city being the laughing stock of the PL - again.

What is sad, if it does pan out the inevitable way, is that it could have been so avoidable with some proper football acumen and ambition.

 

@ninian opinion - my "exactly right" comment in response to Hilts' post was regarding his observation that we had eyes on the Championship next season, not that we should have done so, nor that there are any guarantees that we'd bounce back because of it.

Essentially the dealings this summer have just enhanced a Championship outfit, not made it into a viable Premier side.

Having got here, regarding going back down as a likely (and an acceptable) option makes no sense to me.

After our last sojourn up here 5 years ago, the money available as a result has virtually doubled from last time, and in real terms we've spent less than half. Because of the success of last season, I've come to believe that Tan thinks Warnock can work miracles with peanuts in Premier League terms.

Fearing the reality of the financial implications for the club of overspending and still then failing could have overidden the reality of football at this level.

Getting the right quality of squad together to play somewhere near on level terms with the mid table clubs (forget about the top 6) is essential for survival, otherwise you're relying on luck and possibly a manager who is deemed to be better than he actually is at this exalted level.

 

I am a fan of NW, he’s my pal...but a bloke who sits on a tractor for relaxation was never going to cut it in the big league! He has used his three month recruitment window inadequately! It’s his last shot at it and he should have made it clear to Tan, poop or get off the potty! There is massive money to be made in staying up...surely a man of magnificent wealth can see this?

 

@Sparky. I don’t think the impact of Brexit can be under-estimated. It has had an effect on transfer fees as the pound is a lot weaker.
I think the main impact is the freedom of movement. Until the deal/no deal is done no one knows what will replace the freedom of movement arrangements. The respective FAs cannot put anything into place until Brexit has been done and dusted, then the different FAs need to speak with government and hash out a policy that has minimal effect on the use of foreign players. I do see a decrease in foreign (EU) players. During the transition period players won’t want to move if they think they’ll be refused a work permit after March 2019

 

Sorry, don't agree at all Taff. We're not talking about March 2019 and it's implications - we're in the here and now.

Brexit didn't stop both Wolves and Fulham amongst others bringing is a shed load of Spanish, Portuguese and French players this summer. What was different about us other than just the will and expertise to do it?

Recent variation in the value of the pound has not stopped other clubs either - that's a false premise upon which to excuse our club..

 

as a neutral I would not give up hope yet - 6 games you have played 3 of the "top 6" however a worrying thing is 2 goalless draws against poor opposition and a loss at Bournemouth again without a goal. are there 3 worse teams in the PL than Cardiff? I don't know yet, your match tomorrow will be interesting. Anyway, good luck and I hope you stay up

 

The trouble I see musty is that we're banking on 3 teams to be worse than us rather than trying to ensure it.

Looking at the results this Saturday afternoon, apart from West Ham winning, all our "relegation" rivals lost including my 3 tips of Hudders, Fulham and Southampton.

All we've got to do now is beat another drop candidate Burnley tomorrow to climb the table.........

 

that is the 64,000 question, are there 3 worse sides, my jury is out atm but Newcastle and Huddersfield are looking like 2 of them

 

I’ve just posted in another thread results went our way today so it’s up to City to take advantage but it’ll be hard.

I cannot see West Ham as relegation rivals; they’ll be top ten easily.

For all Fulham’s spending and accolades if it wasn’t for Mitrovic they’d have less than ‘just’ the 5 points they’ve got so far.