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Name change ballot result. What's your prediction?

Discussion in 'Hull City' started by Baldrick's Cunning Plan, Mar 30, 2014.

  1. WhittlingStick

    WhittlingStick Well-Known Member

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    Allam has a large metal todger !
     
    #21
  2. rayhenderson retired

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    Yes but it’s a bolt on one so he can walk away from it 24 hours if it doesn’t do as it’s told.
     
    #22
  3. RicardoHCAFC

    RicardoHCAFC Well-Known Member
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    It's a bit of a moot point because it'll never happen, but I'd say a don't care result would be the best result in terms of fans, forums in particular. It'll result in issues about how the DC vote should be counted towards future action about the name change, but ultimately that comes back to what AA decided to take a DC to mean.

    Yes will result in it rumbling on amongst fans because the loaded nature of the question makes the result so little about the actual name change it might as well have not been mentioned.
    No will result in it rumbling on amongst fans because the Yes/DC voters will then blame anything that happens at the club that they don't like on the people who voted No even if it's got bugger all to do with the issue.

    A don't care result on the other hand should largely put an end to things between fans. It puts the Allams in the position where the fans aren't saying no to them, they're just not saying yes to their idea, so they can't claim they have and therefore Yes/DC voters can't blame the No voters for any negative changes. The issue of the loaded question forcing people to vote Yes would be greatly reduced as a way of disputing the result when it hadn't brought about that result. If AA decided to take the DC votes as support for the change it would be a huge mistake on his part in terms of keeping the support. I know at least if I had the option of supporting an idea and had chosen to vote that I didn't think it mattered, then the person tried to use that vote as support I'd be pushed into opposing it on the grounds that if I'd wanted to support it I would have voted Yes in the first place.

    The ironic thing is, and it's assuming everything that's been said online is accurate, I haven't seen a single person say they've voted DC. I've seen a few Yes votes and a lot of No votes. I realise that would always be the case given the No campaign is a largely social media run operation which we have access to and the Yes is coming primarily from the club through mainstream media so wouldn't be attracting the same encouragement/involvement from people. Not saying it'll be the opposite way round, but at minimum it'll be a lot closer than people think. You have to remember, the sample we're taking things from is people that are using social media in the form of forums, twitter, facebook etc, and most of our friends offline will be similar people to us in other ways. There's plenty of people that don't use these kind of sites and are in a position where they've only heard the Allams' views on the matter.

    Anyway, can see the result being something like this:

    Yes - with the Allams still in charge - 55%
    No - I don't want a ticket for the FA Cup Final if we get there - 40%
    D/C - 5%

    It would be more interesting if it ended up with the majority in a D/C position though. With the loaded nature of the question I can't see how you would overcome the fact that without seeing the CTWD stance is purely against the name change rather than the spin that's been put on it that option is the way you'd vote if you were against the idea but were scared of the Allams walking away.
     
    #23
  4. thistimetigers

    thistimetigers Active Member

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    I believe 11,134 people will vote, with the following result -

    3,001 - YES
    4,078 - NO
    4,055 - DON'T CARE
     
    #24
  5. FILEYseadog

    FILEYseadog Well-Known Member

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    As a long time I'm not that bothered.....I always said when asked do I you prefer Hull City or do you prefer HULL TIGERS that I prefer HULL CITY.

    IMO that's what the question should have been.. C is invalid to me so I voted NO as again I always said if there was a vote I would vote no.

    The no vote will win.

    I have never met one person who prefers Hull Tiger as our club name..

    Any one voting yes has done so out of fear of AA walking...

    I will never vote yes to the name change for what might seem a stupid reason .

    Name changes and some long time fans will stop going..

    That would be sad .

    I'm sure the no vote will win easy
     
    #25
  6. gruff

    gruff Member

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    I think it'll be a no majority (if the poll is done legit) other than a few who have fallen for the threats will vote yes and I doubt those that aren't bothered could be arsed to vote
     
    #26
  7. The FRENCH TICKLER

    The FRENCH TICKLER Well-Known Member

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  8. Siegfried's cat

    Siegfried's cat Active Member

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    Does anyone know when the result is due out?

    I'm assuming that as the Allam's have paid the ballot they will get the results back first, so will we get usual leading comments from them before we hear officially.
     
    #28
  9. Newland Tiger

    Newland Tiger Well-Known Member

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    Surely it should be anounced by the 'independent' people checking the results ?
     
    #29
  10. originallambrettaman

    originallambrettaman Mod Moderator
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    I think the result is due on Thursday, but it's not easy getting a straight answer on anything at the moment.
     
    #30

  11. Newland Tiger

    Newland Tiger Well-Known Member

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    You know it will be friday just before another very important game
     
    #31
  12. originallambrettaman

    originallambrettaman Mod Moderator
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    That would seem to be the current modus operandi.
     
    #32
  13. juleskaren

    juleskaren Well-Known Member

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    I had a conversation with a season pass holding work colleague today and she said she did not vote as the questions were loaded. I did say that in that case she may be classed in Allam's eyes as being not bothered what we are called therefore "with him". Don't think that had occurred to her as she isn't one for forums, internet, twitter etc. I know from previous conversations that she does not want the name change. Sadly there will be lots and lots of others who fall into her catagory so I will never trust the answer of this poll. Should have been yes or no to Hull Tigers as we have all said. No way was I going to give the Allam's the satisfaction of thinking "I don't care". Lets hope the FA stick to their decision.
     
    #33
  14. Putter65

    Putter65 Active Member

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    I voted 'yes' but I wish now I had voted the 3rd option 'not bothered'
     
    #34
  15. Muffinthegoat

    Muffinthegoat Well-Known Member

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    The husband of one of my employees is a pass holder, would rather us be known as Hull City, and is only interested in Premier League football. He's therefore not bothered enough to vote at all.
     
    #35
  16. Muffinthegoat

    Muffinthegoat Well-Known Member

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    Not wanting to know your reasons for voting yes, you are perfectly entitled to your choice. If it had been a straight "City" or "Tigers" which would you have voted for?
     
    #36
  17. Freedom of Speech

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    The result of the largest ballot in history.

    A) 50%
    B) 50%
    C) 0%,

    Meaning a coalition will be formed with CTWD. Verified by Hull City Council.

    The organisers have been awarded the contract to run the 7th May 2015 UK General Election. Results to be announced by May 2018 at the earliest.

    What a cock-up!
     
    #37
  18. originallambrettaman

    originallambrettaman Mod Moderator
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    It seems that 6,500 people have voted, but 400 were blank ballot papers, so these people will be contacted tomorrow and asked to vote again. They will not be given long to get their votes in, as apparently, we're getting the result on Monday.

    I also believe that there has been a formal complaint lodged with the FA regarding the nature of the question posed, the ballot forms not working, the fact that many didn't receive the ballot email at all, the lack of confidentiality, the refusal to advise in advance who the adjudicator is etc, etc, etc...

    Basically, it's been a complete waste of time.
     
    #38
  19. Freedom of Speech

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    How many do you think will bother to vote? Surely a majority of pass holders?
     
    #39
  20. RicardoHCAFC

    RicardoHCAFC Well-Known Member
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    Following my accuracy on the Wembley ticket thread I'm about to prove it was a pure fluke I got the right number so:

    Out of 18,000 there's probably about 40% ineligible (I'm sure I read kids were ineligible?) so you'll be looking at 11,000ish left.
    We've got 6,500 votes if OLM has accurate figures, which would be 60% of the eligible vote near enough, which is a good turnout. (Is that just email votes, or have they counted the paper ballots already to be able to add them together?)


    Of more interest though, if there's 6,500 votes we can start trying to piece together the result in advance.
    CTWD has around 1,700 members? Maybe 300 non-City fans as members to be conservative, so down to 1,400.
    Proportionally to match day attendance that would be roughly 1,200 season tickets* (18,000 out of 21-22000 home fans)
    The bit I can't even guess at on my own - I know they can't tell us how many are season tickets or give us specific details about members, but does anyone at CTWD have the ability to give us a % of their membership that is old enough to vote in the poll?

    Once we get that figure, you would expect all eligible CTWD members to have voted No. So what I'd do then is a poll on here of just the No voters, asking how many of them were CTWD members. If there were 800 CTWD members eligible to vote, and and the poll on here said around 25% of the no voters on here were members and around 75% non-members then you'd be predicting close to 50% of overall votes being no. There's clearly a lot of assumptions in that first bit, but they're probably not too far out of it. They key would be the % of the poll on here, and with a small focussed sample rather than a random one that's where I'd be laying the blame when it turned out the number we came up with was bollocks.
     
    #40

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