Interesting move in the market in the past few days re the ‘2014/15 Trainers Title’. Mr Nicholls now out to 2/1 (from 6/4) with 3 of those bookie chappies. The most obvious question has to be ‘what, I say what, do they know’?!? The forum’s favourite trainer, Mr Henderson, remains a best priced Even money shot.
Sir Barney - although Mr Henderson is a very good price to win the championship in 2015 - the problem is releasing the cash now (even though it may turn out to be a fruitful exercise) and picking up the profit until next April - bit of a dilemma me thinks ??
This ‘battle’ makes the front page of the old ‘Racing Post’ today following Ladbrokes decision to cut Jonjo O’Neill from 8’s to 5/1 for the title. The best prices now available are 11/10 Mr Henderson, 2/1 Mr Nicholls, 6/1 O’Neill, 33/1 Bar. I still think its a duel between the pair at the head of the market with O’Neill, who gets it right no more than now and then whereas the other 2 get it right almost every time, a long way behind. Why I’ll run down my local High Street starkers if he even finishes 2nd let alone wins!
Which by my (admittedly dubious) calculations works out at about 1/5 coupled, or a 20% return on investment over 6 months. Better than any ISA.
Cor blimey, troops, Mr Henderson and Mr Nicholls have flip flopped! However, I haven’t lost faith in the former and think he will still, to using a racing expression, ‘get up on the line’. Those bookie chappies now wager: 4/7 Mr Nicholls, 11/4 Mr Henderson, 7/1 O’Neill, 25/1 Willie Mullins, 40/1 those old rogues the Pipes, 50/1 dear old Pip Hobbs, 66/1 Bar. Is this market as clear cut as those bookie chappies seem to think?!?
It's clear cut if you know that Sprinter and Simonsig aren't coming back this season. Bearing in mind you need £2.5 million to win those two could net around £750k for their trainer if back to their best. Interestingly Nicholls and Henderson have an almost identical runners/winners record but one is £350k ahead of the other which proves how vital the big pots will be. Some interesting stats among the trainer returns. McCain and O'Neill, despite having a fair number of winners have a pretty ordinary 16% win record. Compare that with the likes of Greatrex (33%), Elliott (34%), Ferguson (31%) the Doc (29%) and Quinn (28%), all from a decent number of runners. Even their stats pale into insignificance when compared to a certain Mrs Pauline Harkin though. She has hit the back of the net with every runner so far this season. Shame she only has to 2 horses.
