A rattle through Brighton
2:25 -
Pop Dancer and Merrimack score highest for me, because I put most value on C&D form at Brighton, however as you can see below Pop Dancer is stronger across the board and is probably the most likely winner. Trappy Race so no bet.
You must log in or register to see images
3:30 - Fullforward tops the rankings with
Foinix in second. They score quite a lot higher than the rest. The key to this race is the likely pace angle and the key of course and distance form. This analysis suggests both could be overpriced and
I will be backing the pair against the field. From further study I think Irezumi is the other interesting runner on course form, and could be the other interesting runner. He has only 1 win from 15 at the course, but has loads of good form in context of this race.
You must log in or register to see images
4:02 - Very close score between
Darvel and
Buy The Dip, with a gap to Blenheim Star in third. The key here is that my model is suggesting that Darvel and Buy The Dip's CD form is key. Buy The Dip is very strong in previous form with his rankings and performances against Par. Darvel is weaker here, but has a better pace score, suggesting he should be suited to the way the race will be run. Blenheim Star hasn't got the same level of form, but is very strong on course form, which puts him ahead of Darysina Gold who is probably the best horse in the race, but only has one course run, when finishing second. Both Darvel and Buy The Dip are interesting, although the latter is shorter than I would like in the market.
You must log in or register to see images
4:32 -
Kracking dominates this race on the model. He has the best ratings associated with Par, and is second best in terms of speed ratings. He is nicely drawn according to statistics and is likely to get the race run to suit. He also has the important course form. What is interesting here is that Time Patrol who is in great form, doesn't score highly, suggesting he needs a massive step up again in form to figure. That goes against the market. This could be interesting!!
Zu Run for me is interesting too, and is second on the model ratings.
You must log in or register to see images
5:03 - Unsurprisingly
Poetic Force leads the way here, but its a really tight model with
Kranjcar and
Bear To Dream close to him. The interesting bit to this race is the pace where Spirit Charmer scores exceptionally well. He could potentially get an easy lead, but his Par Diff and Speed Rting suggest that he won't be good enough. If I had to bet in this race, I would be doing forecasts of the course and distance winners with Poetic Force, Kranjcar and Bear To Dream the likeliest winners.
You must log in or register to see images
Bets
R.I.P. Peter Easterby, a stalwart of the Northern racing scene and trainer of Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon. He remains the only trainer to train 1,000 winners on the flat and over the sticks.
