Daily Racing Thread Monday 7th. June 2021

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At Pontefract the opener has some 2YO's with form coming in and experience is often an advantage. For me though, they don't set a strong standard and I am backing Richard Hannon's Dark Tulip.

Dark Tulip is by Dark Angel and the dam Rimth won the Fred Darling when she was 3YO. There is enough class there to think Dark Tulip could make a winning debut and the stable have been 12/38 with 2YO's this season.

I felt she was worth chancing because a little bit of class may be enough to land this race.

5.45 Pontefract Dark Tulip 7/2
 
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Of the 52 races at Windsor this season 11 have been won by horses leading all the way, returning a profit of £330 to £1 level stakes at BSP!! However that is because of one big priced winner over the 5 furlong trip.

A more sustainable profit is made by backing front runners over trips of 6 furlongs (33% strike rate) and the mile (18% strike rate), who lead from the start.

So who is likely to aim to make all today?

6:00 Russellinthebushes - raced prominently on all starts and should do so again here, headgear on for the first time and could make good use of experience. 5/2 looks fair.

8:00 Lethal Blast & Buy Me Back look the obvious pace angles, but the market have them short enough.

8:30 Jaffathegaffa - Another shorter than he should be but does look the pace angle. Interesting to see how market goes for this one. I had expected double figures when I looked at the race yesterday.

Pontefract is the course that has the highest winning pace angle horses this season with 13 winners from 28 races and a useful 120% ROI for those making the running. It is also impacted by draw, those drawn low getting the perfect position in most races and winning well above what you would expect.

7:15 Dapper Man - drawn low and very quick away. Looks very interesting at decent prices

7:45 Bit Of A Quirke - looks a tad overpriced given he could get an easy lead. Puckle did look very good last time out though.

8:45 Excel Power - NAP of the day, looks a race that he can dominate. Drawn well, and has the recent form. Should be very hard to beat.


So the bets are -

Russellinthebushes
Dapper Man
Bit Of A Quirke
Excel Power (NAP)
 
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The opener at Leicester sees a few with previous form but Archie Watson has a newcomer that is well supported in Last Hoorah.

Bastongne was the favourite early on but he seems weaker now. Rickenbacker has been tipped and those two form the head of the market with the Watson horse.

I took a chance on Bay Breeze, who has been weak in the betting. He looks less obvious after a 4th and a 3rd but he faced an Evens Fav on debut and then a 4/7 shot next time. This is his first chance in a more open contest. The ground has been soft for him thus far but he gets fast ground for the first time today. I thought he might hold a better chance than 14/1 odds suggested, so had an each-way play.

1.00 Leicester Bay Breeze 14/1 EW
 
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Happy enough with Bay Breeze in third. He still seemed a bit awkward and green today. The Fav obliged and Archie Watson's newcomer ran well in second on debut. I would think all three will win/win again in time. I felt Bay Breeze has the physical scope to progress once he learns how to put it all together.

14/1 third, not a bad start to the day.
 
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The 3.00 Leicester sees a mixed bunch of maidens. Some are 4YO and some are 3YO, while some make their debuts.

I felt that Fiftyshadesofred was the one to be with. Roger Varian had a disappointing Derby and Oaks but he remains in form. Fiftyshadesofred was no factor on his debut last season but made a good effort first time up this year. He came with a steady run that day and then had a battle with the Haggas trained favourite Morbik, before the latter stayed on that bit more strongly to win. The pair were four and half lengths clear of the rest. Morbik was beaten favourite when disappointing next time but the ground was soft that day, unlike the fast ground when he won. The third horse from Morbik's winning race came out and won it's next race, so that was a boost to the form, considering how far behind today's selection he was previously.

The newcomers could always have something lurking but for me the risk/reward was appealing at odds of 7/2.

3.00 Leicester Fiftyshadesofred 7/2

I would think he should be 9/4-5/2
 
Baaeed made a good debut for William Haggas. The son of Sea The Stars out of a Kingmambo mare won with a lot more in hand than the winning margin and he looks smart. I suspect the rest of the field bumped into one there. Fiftyshadesofred was dismal though. He never looked to be comfortable and seemed to be climbing on the ground. He just couldn't close up and then weakened. He has run well below his previous race today.
 
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Grade One said:
Morning

5.45 Pontefract-No Nay Nicki

Shaped on her debut to be crying out for this extra furlong....currently 4-1 [Bet Victor]
Click to expand...

Great shout, she fairly pissed up there. Either she is decent or the rest were poor. Dark Tulip was weak in the betting then backed slightly but she was never involved and there was little promise there at all. That's the gamble with the newcomers though, some are not as good as they look on paper.
 
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