Daily Racing Thread Monday 5th. April 2021

Monday's Meetings

Chepstow
N/H 8 Races 1:00-4:50p.m.
Redcar
Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:07p.m.
Wolverhampton
A/W 7 Races 1:20-4:45p.m.
Kempton
A/W 7 Races 1:45-5:10p.m.
Cork
N/H 8 Races 1:50-5:50p.m.
Fairyhouse
N/H 7 Races 2:05-5:40p.m.
Plumpton
N/H 7 Races 2:10-5:25p.m.

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Good Luck

 

Fairyhouse

17,00 Irish Grand National

Court Maid 18/1 e/w (WH six places) Others 16/1 e/w (six and seven places)

Maybe she carries too much weight but she has two wins here, the last over the same distance tomorrow. She is going well after a break (1-13-1-1), I think this has been the target for the season.

 

Some Nass stats might be useful here. Some of these have tasty form over shorter distances

 

French Light 17/2 - Fairyhouse 2.05 French Light has to give weight away all around but I think he could be a bit classier than what he faces here, being a Grade 1 horse in America. Most importantly, he is now running on ground that he will be more accustomed to than the slogs he has endured so far during his time in Ireland. Keri Brion finally hit the target with her first winner here in the bumper in Cork today and I think French Light could possibly send her back to the States on a high note.

Latest Exhibition 5/1 - Irish National 5.00 He's the class horse of the race and should be very hard to beat if he gets a clear round here. His stamina is not assured, but I feel it will be suitable for him and he will be able to race lazily in behind the pack before having plenty in reserve when push comes to shove. They swerved Chelthenham with him and put all their eggs in one basket on this one, so it will either be a masterstroke by connections, or they could look a bit silly should he misfire. I know Paul Nolan stated he would run him where he thinks he will win rather than chase Monkfish home again, so that will give you a gauge of the confidence levels and whilst it looks ultra competitive on paper, Latest Exhibition should take a lot of beating and 5/1 is just about the right price for me given the horses class and form vs what he faces today.

Bank Holiday Monday, have a good day folks.

 

Looking forward to seeing THE BOSSES OSCAR stepping up out of handicap company tomorrow, not before time.

 

Irish Grand National. Opposites Attract ew @ 40/1. Has never won a Chase but has some pretty decent novice form behind Assemble and Latest Exhibition. Was also only 2 lengths behind Monkfish in his p2p conceding 10lb too. The trainer/jockey are hardly prolific but this lurker at the bottom of the weights is the sort to do well in this race. Good luck anyone playing on Easter Monday.

 

Would be nice to see him win this...the trainer has taken on Monkfish a couple of times and who can blame the trainer and owner avoiding a 3rd defeat.

From what I read they also bypassed the grade 1 race today so clearly they fancy their chances. He has to give around a stone in weight to those at the bottom of the entries but some of these aren't up too much. However there is potentially one or two novices that might have something in hand and could be improving so he s not one I will be backing but I hope he wins if my pick doesn't come home ahead of the pack.

Good luck with your bet on him STH..

 

There is definitely a few in there that have a bit of scope for improvement, Robin De Carlow would be a huge threat if she is able to do herself justice after a lay-off, being from the Mullins stable, you would think that he is fully fit. Pilgrim mentioned Court Maid there, also Home By The Lee, Escaria Ten, Coko Beach, Run Wild Fred, Espanito Belle and also the one Chaninbar mentioned, Opposites Attract, all are capable of improving as chasers. Most of the rest I think have shown their hand but then again that's not to say that the old Agatha Christie books haven't been out for the past season or so to, the plot could thicken.

Heck, the more I think of it, what have I done

Look, I haven't gone mad on the race, it's not a race to be punting too heavily in, I have a nice win bet on and if it comes in, I'll be very pleased, but it won't be the end of the world should he not oblige. Hoepfully it will be a good and entertaining race and they all get around safe and sound.

 

Robin de Carlow looks very interesting in this having defeated Put the Kettle on previously but she isn't the one I am backing in this..

 

I gave Robin De Carlow a sex change there I just realised edited in original post now

 

Morning all...two bets today:

Fairyhouse 3.25pm Lynwood Gold 4/1 win. Finished 6th in a Pertemps Qualifier at Punchestown in March I was surprised he didn't turn up in the Pertemps Final at the festival. Was creeping nicely in to the race and races today off the same mark. Big chance.

Fairyhouse 5.00pm Brace Yourself 16/1 each way 6 places. Finished runner up in the Porterstown Chase over course and distance and has had a break since. Seems to run well when fresh and likes good ground. Latest Exhibition has to give over a stone to this fella (finished 7 lengths in front of Brace Yourself earlier in season off level weights) which I think will be too much. I expect him to run well with luck in running.

I like Latest Exhibition in this and I would have probably backed The Big Dog had the going been soft or worse but the above is my selection.

Good luck all!

 

Chepstow 1.00 The Raven's Return

Backed this horse last time out at Fakenham when 3rd in a claimer. I think todays track and the step up in trip will suit bettter. Stable amongst the winners recently. Could run well for each way purposes.

 

WATERLOO QUAY 7/1 Chepstow 4:50
Bumped into what I think is a very useful animal on debut who was a lot more streetwise. Never shown the whip he will have come on bundles for that run. The thing that makes him really interesting is that he hails from a yard not associated with bumper runners which makes that debut even more noteworthy.

 

Bet365 offering up to 10 places each way on the Irish Grand National with the each way extra option. Obviously odds reduce as you take more places but if you fancy a big priced runner not a bad option to consider.

 

Plumpton 3.55 The Unit

Ran well when 3rd at Warwick 2 runs ago and found Cheltenham to competitive recently. Well handicapped and ground will suit.Stable amongst the winners last 14 days. Should run well for each way purposes.

 

Win singles on the following. Also stuck them in a small lucky 15/acca:

2:25 Cork - Hazran 11/2. Ran a great race last time at a big price. Travelled into contention really well but just bumped into one to finish second (made a balls of the last fence too). A repeat of that run should be good enough today.
2:30 Wolves - Bronze River 7/2. Promising young jockey on. Scored his first win the other day with an impressive ride. This one looks to have a great chance today.
2:50 Redcar - Daafr 7/1. If you watch its last run i think the jockey cocked up by being too casual on this one and if able to go as well on turf then i think they'll want to make amends today.
3:58 Redcar - Na Blianta Beo 6/1. Went in my tracker in its early days with Jim Bolger. Didn't really go on from there and still winless. Beaten favourite for this yard last time out. Had a wind op after that and tongue tie also tried today. Its definitely more of a speculative bet on this one, in that i'm still hoping it comes good. Probably last chance saloon carrying my money today though if ****e again.

Onto the Irish National:

It'll probably turn out straightforward and obvious with Latest Exhibition the likely winner. However i don't like backing favourites in these big races so my 3 against it are:

Sempo 14/1
Escaria Ten 14/1
Discordantly 33/1 (free bet used on this one)

All ew and 7 places with Skybet.

Good luck all

 

Really keen on Coco Beach today. Fancied him for Cheltenham but didn’t run to go here instead

 

Irish National
Anyone's guess really.
Latest Exhibition, Agusta Gold, Run Wild Fred, Off You Go, Escaria Ten, Robin De Carlow ..................

Latest Exhibition has been beaten 3 times by Monkfish but beaten further each time, and easily, so I,m going to overlook the form which makes him look a cert. I think Escaria Ten Is the most likely to improve and stays, so 16/1 ew might be the safest. Agusta Gold second choice

 

To pass the time while Irish GN arrives

Chepstow
15,45 Gleno 9/4