Monday 30th June daily thread

HAYEK 5 15 SOUTHWELL 14/1 atm with bet365

25lbs below it's last winning mark, that's all I'm saying.

 

I back this horse everytime it runs and will be on again tomorrow but I could have bought the bloody thing by now with the amount of times I've backed it!

 

Just seen the funniest thing in years. Hills have priced up Brazil 4-5 ON to beat Columbia who are 7-2 against! Quarter final on friday but expecting a comfortable win in 90 minutes for Columbia and 7-2 is a staggering price.

 

Colombia haven't player anyone yet, their group was ridiculously week and then they beat a one man team in 2nd round, a one man team missing that one man. Brazil will win and 4-5 for them is a great price

 

Based on qualification, rankings and form Columbia are at a completely different level to Chile so then taking into account the massive gulf in class (or not?) between Chile and Brazil yesterday, I'm expecting a Columbia win. They won't need longer than 90 minutes. And as you point out Columbia are used to beating one man teams now......

 

No team in the whole competition are/were on a different level to Chile......just saying!

Germany, France, Argentina, Belgium pays over 4/1.....no-brainer!

 

Brazil are getting better with every game and it will be a HUGE step up in class for Colombia from what they've played so far. Brazil were a class above Chile and should have buried them in 90 minutes and they will learn from the fact that they didn't do so. It would be nice to see Colombia win and dump one of the 'major' teams out but I just can't see it happening.

 

Glad to see the daily thread now completely taken over with football chat the racing isn't very inspiring at the minute! I like that 4-timer stick has put up but I think hell will freeze over quicker than me get an acca up Belgium v USA may be the one to let it down. Very unlucky to not beat Portugal and lost out to de Germans last time out, the yanks aren't a bad side. Well organised outfit, will run Belgium close.

 

Time for one of my w**ker bets#

Pontefract 16.00

Stepping Out 5 points at 3/1 (PP)
Augusta Ada 0.5 points at 12/1 (B365)




# w**ker bet is a trademark

 

Agreed

 

Their pricing up is clearly to try and take as much money as they can on Colombia. I would suggest a fair reflection of each teams chance to be 5-6 Brazil and 15-8 Colombia as home advantage always counts well in these games, 7-2 is a crazy price.

 

Columbia are decent and have width but those wide players will now face Marcelo and Alves..they look weak through the middle at the rear...as do the hosts to be fair.

Attractive odds perhaps but Brazil haven't lost a competitive home match in 40 years and the hopeless and hapless Howard Webb won't be there to protect Columbia like he did Chile.

GL but I think the layers have it about spot on...having said that,a definite no bet game for me.

 

10 man Costa Rica through on penalties; didn't miss one.

 

Colombia also defend very deep which I think will suit Brazil well. Although 7-2 is big in my view Brazil should definitely be the odds on shot.

 

On the Subject of horses I have not put one up for a while as seem to be finding it hard to put together a run of form . I really do fancy one tomorrow however at Windsor so wanted to put it up.

Windsor
7.30 Red Warrior 5-2 Best odds
This horse beat the John Gosden horse Freedoms Light on his reappearance, who has since gone on to win a listed race. That performance told me this was a horse to follow, however when run over course and distance a couple of weeks back he got beat into second by perfect Cracker, whom he takes on again. In my mind Tom Queally made too much use of him that day ad hit the front too soon. Today I expect him to take a little more cover and turn the tables. He is also a pound better off but I do not expect that to be decisive. I think this horse wins.

 

Im happy with 50/1 Colombia, will be 5s tops after they put Brazil out.

 

Marcelo & Alves are ****

 

16.00 Pontefract-Alutiq- 8/1 ew

A huge step down in class for this filly tomorrow last seen when finishing well behind the pace at the sandingham a a the royal meeting. Won a 6f handicap at Kempton in January but had then been out in some Verny tough races, most of which she has been outclassed, the stable must see something in her and the way she won in January, you can see why but don't think she is up to that class. Today she runs off a Mark of 89 6lbs lower than her winning mark in January. With spencer on board too, I think 8/1 she is a massive price and will get in at least the 1st 3 but she will be very to hard to beat.

 

From what I can see, in the last All A Internationals between the Brazil and Colombia, the last four games have resulted in draws. From the site below, it lists only 29 meetings at this level. Does that sound right? Either way, it has to be admitted that Colombia do seem good value.

http://www.11v11.com/teams/colombia/tab/stats

 

Thought Howard Webb did a damn good job in the Brazil/Chile game. Didn't fall for that Brazilian bullshit at all. "Hopeless and hapless" is he not, stupid comment.