4.15 Kempton Ducal 13/2 NAP If it wasn't for his wide draw in stall 13 I'd be investing a significant wager on this fella but I still think he has a cracking chance of landing this prize. Ducal is an unexposed 4 year old who has made a bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25L and the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner scoring off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland, who reopposes tomorrow off the same terms as this race, has won off a 7lb higher mark. Off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success over C+D on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 4month break. Under the handling of John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and he proved it on is next start. Up 5lb for that victory and on his 2nd last start, Ducal put in an extremely game performance to win off his revised mark of 80. After hitting the front about 2f out, he showed gritty determination to hold off all challengers on both sides to score by 0.5L. In a race where he looked like he was always holding his rivals, the form has worked out very well. The 3rd Haamaat scored impressively on his only subsequent start off a 2lb higher mark and the 5th won off a 1lb lower after this. LTO Ducal was a rather unlucky loser in my eyes. Off a mark of 83, which he has again today, he was a step slow leaving the stalls and as a result had to settle for a position in the rear of the field. After being angled out wide, Ducal took a while to get fully motoring (which is normal) and he was never closer than at the finish when he was beaten by only half a length. The form of that race is ok (1st and 3rd reoppose here today) but I'm more than sure that Ducal is still very progressive and is more than capable of landing an event off this mark. He's an incredibly consistent animal, finishing beaten 2.25L or less in each of his 8 handicap runs to date so you know your going to get a very good run for your money. Moreover, he clearly loves it around here with his last 3 starts, consisting of 2 wins and a 0.56L defeat, coming over C+D and its a huge positive that he is coming back to somewhere he is tried and tested. Trainer Mike Murphy has his horses in outstanding order at present which is a huge positive. Although jockey John Fahy's absence tomorrow (I'm presuming he's banned) is a negative as he knows the horse very well, Pat Dobbs is a more than able deputy. Really hate his draw in stall 13 but he doesn't need to front run so hopefully Dobbs can get him a midfield sit if breaking well. I'm very confident of a big run and 13/2 looks a very fair price as Ducal looks to get back to winning ways.
4.45 Kempton Kings 'N Dreams 14/1 Although probably better on the turf and AW, I think Dean Ivory's 5 year old looks very big at 14/1. Although winless on the AW surface, he did put in a decent 2.5L beaten 4th off a 5lb higher mark back in 2010 so I think he's definitely capable of winning off his current mark of 65. His last win came at Haydock on the turf last August off a mark of 69 and I thought he was a massive eye catcher over 6f LTO at Windsor. Off a mark of 70 in the soft ground conditions earlier this month, Kings 'N Dreams took an age to get going before absolutely flying at the death over the 6f finish as he was beaten just over 2.5L and to my eyes he would have gone very close to winning with another furlong. The form of that race took a boost with the winner Highland Colori winning his only subsequent start off a 5lb higher mark. The step up to 7f trip looked sure to suit and he gets that today. Given his last effort in the Class 4 event was off a 5lb higher mark, I think he looks pretty well handicapped. Moreover, he drops into a Class 6 event for the first time in his career and he should find this significantly easier than his last assignment. Jockey George Baker takes the ride and he's had 1 win from 6 starts for trainer Dean Ivory. I think its very interesting that Baker hangs around for 2 hours for this ride before making his way to Windsor and hopefully its an indicator of a forecast big run by connections. Although Ivory is 0-15 this month which is a definite concern, Kings 'N Dreams effort at Windsor was earlier this month so he is clearly in good heart. Although the draw in stall 10 is not ideal, he's a horse who comes from off the pace so it shouldn't be detrimental. If, and there are definite concerns, he translates his turf form to the AW I think he has an excellent chance and 14/1 looks a very nice price for a solid looking e/w bet.
Cracking write ups as usual roto I like ducal to so will be on that and will more than lukely take. a piece of the other good luck and great work
Sorry to have to go against your Nap today ROTO but i feel the bet for that race and indeed the bet of the day for value must be Kempton 4.15 Spirit de Midas 11-1 This horse beat Ducal two runs back and was felt good enough to be faced with a big jump in class on it's last run when a respectable midfield finish. Ducal has a 3lb advantage on their last run but he also has a much worse draw today which i think may be likely to nulify that, and so with Espirit de midas being double the price he has to be the bet for me and at 11'S is even an each way price. It will certainly be close between Ducal and Espirit de Midas today and it could go either way but i feel the draw and the much bigger price makes a strong case of the latter.
Afternoon all, two i like the look of in the 4.15 Kempton both at double figure odds are SILENZO 10/1 (EW) and TEVEZ 11/1 (EW) both are very well handicapped and the booking of a useful claimer on board TEVEZ is enough indictaion to me that he could go close today. In the 5.00 Leicester RED AVALANCHE 16/1 (EW) takes a significant drop in class and at his best is more than good enough to take this with plenty in hand. Finally in the 5.15 Kempton SONGBIRD BLUES 5/1 having gone close at Kempton 3 times she will be winning a race at this level soon, today could be her day and is worth a wager.
Christ it's hot...too hot for picking winners. Pity those toiling today...walk straight up to your boss and demand a redundancy package...until the weather breaks in any case.. GL all.
2.30 Leicester Shooting Jacket 9/1 Another of the Hard Spun progeny making his debut. Is quite nicely bred and Hard Spun off spring have a great record of winning FTO. Barzalona on board and although Godolphin also have the odds on fav the white cap frequently overturns the 'more fancied' runners. 2.45 Kempton Regalo Rosado 50/1 Only worth a small bet but I can't say no to Mike Murphy's 3 year old debutant. Related to a few winners and although Murphy's horses mostly need the run he did ready Mitie Mouse to win on debut last year. Trainer is in cracking form and although she'll probably need the run she's worth a risk at 50s.
Artigiano looks bomb proof in the next at Leics... evens to a 8/1 second in the market... These are the ones that trip you up if you bet on them...
Pilgrims rest in the next at Leicester with a forcast as well, maybe this sun is going to my head. Leicester 3.30 Pilgrims Rest 15-8 (best odds) to win Pilgrims Rest Touch Gold Straight forcast
