Daily Racing Thread Monday 27th. July 2020

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The opener at Galway sees Aidan O'Brien's Wembley a warmish favourite. The colt is by Galileo, just for a change, and he has been third and then second on his first two starts. Many will will expect him to do a Ted Rogers today and go 3-2-1 but the odds are not great at Evens and a shade of odds-on in some places.

The Racing Post showed Wembley improving 5 lbs from his first run to an 82 rating and while that is decent, it is not insurmountable. A big worry for me is that Wembley was beaten at 4/9 Fav last time and if anyone was on that day they are going to have to bump their stakes today to get into the black again.

I went along with Trusted Ally. The Callaghan colt was 3rd on debut, beaten a nose and a neck in a race where the winner had two previous starts. That race was over 6.5 Furlongs and I got the impression Trusted Ally would have won had it been the 7F he is over today. By first season sire Territories the horse who was runner up in the 2000 Guineas to Gleneagles when trained by Andre Fabre, the freshman sire has had seven wins this season. The Racing Post gave Trusted Ally 85 for his debut and that is three pounds higher than Wembley has achieved, so I can't see where some previews get the idea that Wembley sets a clear standard to beat.

Lust is second favourite and he has had two starts to date. Behind Wembley on debut when they were 7th and 3rd respectively, Lust did better when third next time and visually you might think he would do better dropping back from the mile there, to 7F again today but that was a desperately slowly run affait as Lust's Topspeed figure of 28 attests to. It seems hard to make a case for Lust getting the better of Wembley from their first meeting and he's not appealing to me at a general 3/1.

I like the look of Trusted Ally here. He is top on RPR adjusted ratings and has only run once, compared to the first and second favs on two starts apiece. Looks like the extra 1/2 furlong should suit and at 5/1 he looks good value to me.

4.10 Galway Trusted Ally 5/1
 
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3:20 Redcar - Lukoutoldmakezebak 40/1 Ew (4 places)
3:50 Redcar - Tarnhelm 28/1 Ew (4 Places)

Singles and double
 
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Morning all,

Looking at 4 selections today, 3 of my own and sponge Sticks selection. But it looks like I'm going against Grade One and Smokey in two of them.

1.40 Red, TILTILYS ROCK 6/1. Going for the 3 timer today.

2.30 MR, MASON JAR 8/1. Sponging Sticks selection.

3.20 Red, GREAT COLLACI 7/1. Not too sure if there's a draw bias here but drawn 17/17 with J Fanning on board.

6.30 Win, EPSOM FAITHFUL 8/1. Beaten by Broughtons Gold first time out by 7.25 lengths but is 10lb better off today. LTO EF ran over this c/d and was beaten 2 lengths by Theatreside who won again over the weekend. Hopefully EF will be cherry ripe tonight to make it third time lucky. At 8/1 I reckon he is a decent ew bet against BG who is as low as 9/4.
 
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Also I've been following certain trainers, in particular team Crisford. I had their only runner at Newmarket on Saturday and today they have 1 runner up at Redcar. WITHOUT A FIGHT should take all the beating but is priced accordingly at 11/10. Hopefully nearer the off it will drift out.

The Hannons don't normally go to Redcar either, I think they've had just over 30 runners there in the last 10 years yielding 9 winners. I think I remember about 2 years ago they sent 4 there and all 4 won and today he has runners there. I'm not going to do any of them but will watch to see how he gets on.
 
Grecian Mick said:
Also I've been following certain trainers, in particular team Crisford. I had their only runner at Newmarket on Saturday and today they have 1 runner up at Redcar. WITHOUT A FIGHT should take all the beating but is priced accordingly at 11/10. Hopefully nearer the off it will drift out.

The Hannons don't normally go to Redcar either, I think they've had just over 30 runners there in the last 10 years yielding 9 winners. I think I remember about 2 years ago they sent 4 there and all 4 won and today he has runners there. I'm not going to do any of them but will watch to see how he gets on.
Click to expand...

I am sure Statto will be on soon to tell you the exact facts and figures of Hannons exploits at Redcar!

Brave man following my selections, I have hit a poor run of form this last week!
 
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As Stick asked so nicely.

2015 - 4 from 7
2016 - 0 from 5
2017 - 2 from 8
2018 - 2 from 6
2019 - 1 from 6

Profit at betfair SP from all bar the obvious 2016 blip. I think Hannon Jnr took over in 2014 didn't he? Which seems to have been the switch of form at the course (prior to 2015 they were 2 from 48 since 1997)
 
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3 from 10 in handicaps
2 from 9 in listed
1 from 3 in novice
1 from 4 in sellers
1 from 6 in maidens
1 from 2 in claimers

Those are the winners and race type for Hannon at the course
 
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I was up at Fergal's on Friday, only saw two horses doing proper work, those two are Ballyhome and Lough Har. The former worked the best. I like both and have backed both. Lough Har is an interesting horse, he lost a shoe last time and now they've also got a tongue tie on. The yard are 16 from 93 with tongue tie on first time, 17% strike rate and £77.74 to £1 level stakes for this angle.

On my walk around the yard I had a look at Billy The Squid who looks a nice enough horse, but yard don't have a good record with juveniles and he has no form from his flat runs. I can't see him being good enough today, and perhaps is one for the longer term. I am surprised he is as short as he is given his awful flat form. I didn't ask about him or any of the horses because Foxtrot Racing were at the yard and Sally & Fergal were pretty busy with them.

Best part of the visit was the cakes (victoria sponge, plus a slice of coffee & walnut to take home).

They've also got Blue Jacaranda and See Forever running today. My view is that the former needs to show more but I can't be backing it in a novice hurdle, and the second is a lovely grey horse, but she is so ungenuine and moody. They've popped blinkers on, and if that sharpens her up and makes her sweet then she could hack up. I've backed her win only in the race.
 
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On Redcar trainers - since 2015 -

Trainer Runners Winners
William Haggas 41 18
Archie Watson 39 11
Richard Hannon 32 9
Roger Varian 32 9
James Tate 26 6
Charlie Appleby 13 6
Gary Moss 15 5
James Fanshawe 14 5
George Scott 18 5
Stef Keniry 14 3
Hughie Morrison 13 3
Brian Meehan 9 3
Jamie Osborne 9 3
Simon Crisford 8 3
John Gosden 7 2
Peter Chapple-Hyam 6 2
Jo Hughes 7 2
Ed de Giles 8 2
Jennie Candlish 9 2
Luca Cumani 6 2
Amy Murphy 4 2
Sarah Hollinshead 6 2
Chris Wall 4 2
 
So on that you'd be interested in (Will Hill prices)

Elected (3/1)
Turn Of Phrase (5/2)
Little Downs (10/1) /Thowq (6/4)
Swinley Forest (10/3)/Count Of Amazonia (5/1)
Keep It Brief (12/1)
Swooping Eagle (6/4)

I'd guess at a treble at worst from that lot
 
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12:35 Redcar - Tapeten Toni e/w

(Handicap debut so very speculative. First encouraging run was LTO 12-days ago. Middle-to-high numbers have decided advantage in the Redcar straight sprints, so #9 draw a good one. Raining, but still should handle ground whatever it turns out to be? Could not get 9/1 at time of writing, so settled with 8/1. After Saturday's debacle, seems I am not very good with early odds!) :smile:
 
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