Daily Racing Thread Monday 23rd. March 2020

[smokethedeadbadger]

Here's what i fancy today:

2:00 - Boasting 16/1 ew
2:30 - Grizzly 6/1 win/Ecclesiastical 20/1 ew
3:00 - Dark Vader 11/4 win
3:30 - Justina 7/1 win/Camachita 10/1 ew (4 places)

In the 5:00 there are a fair few newcomers which means a fair amount of unknown in the race. There's two that look kind of interesting to me at huge prices and therefore i've had a small speculative ew play on both:

Karakatta 33/1
Dheisheh 45/1

Both 7 places with Bet365 ew extra

Not the best of days. Ecclesiastical came 4th when it only paid 3 places. Karakatta came 8th when I had 7 places. Dark Vader came 2nd when I had it to win. Got the ew on Camachita but that got done in last 100 yards so close to being so much better. One of those days

 

[SaveTheHumans]

The Devoy stakes at 4.00 is where my focus was tonight. I like the Dermot Weld runner Brogue at 4/1 .He won his maiden nicely enough on debut, looked a little light in his frame still that day. Having been away since I am hopeful that Dermot has him cherry ripe for his seasonal bow, as he so often does, and, perhaps it could be the time to catch out the O'Brien runner Sir Dragonet, whom they all have to beat.

Brogue beat some nice horses on debut in the shape of Barbados and Up Helly Aa, both went on to score readily next time up and Up Helly Aa's form in particular reads well now.

With the weight allowance condisered, I reckon there won't be too much in it between the main protagonists and I'm hopeful Dermot has Brogue fit to roll where as Aidan might have left something to work on. Hallimi will appreciate the ground and Numerian wouldn't need to improve massively to get involved either but I think it's a match and 4/1 is a fair price to upset the fave.

Good luck all.

Definitely not 100% match fit and never in with a chance throughout. There was a time when you could set your watch by DK early season. Not any more. Numerian looked good and Brendan Powell (assistant to Joseph) is confident he will make up into group class this season as he has grown into himself much more.

 

[Grendel]

It shows how poor last year's Derby was when Sir Dragonet could not win a Listed race. Numerian has been steadily progressive in taking his rating from 83 up to 104 and he was Gelded last December which may have helped focus his mind to a new personal best today but whether he has improved by the 8 lbs needed to beat Sir Dragonet on official ratings is debatable and assuming that the narrow Derby 5th (beaten only 3/4 of a length) has run to his best is probably unwise.

The last time Aidan dropped Sir Dragonet to 10F it resulted in a defeat at odds of 4/9 and you would question the wisdom of running a St Leger horse over the same trip again. Dermot Weld's runners were awful today and he is on a losing run of 27 stretching back 141 days. Brogue came in with promise of better to come but has run to 93 on RPR's for today's effort. Too soon to write him off but he needs to get something going when the stable finds better form. Dermot Weld is not force he once was but he isn't as bad as Jim Bolger and John Oxx in terms of trainers who have lost their way. Jim Bolger had a winner today but he seems no factor at all now when looking for winners at the very top level and I don't think he has had a really good one since Dawn Approach.

Weld's Kiss For A Jewel and my own pick Blissful seemed to pay for being at the fore early on and both of them weakened away as others came through. Blissful was a drifter and while she did her best to knuckle down for a while it was soon clear she would be swallowed up. I felt Even So was way short and she never looked likely to win. You have to question the value of an odds-on shot in these early races on soft ground but it doesn't seem to stop some people backing them. Always a little disappointing to see a horse rated 91 winning a Group 3 and while Lemista may have improved, I would be wary of taking short odds based on the fact that she is a Group 3 winner now.

Today was all about Lippazaner for me. Very easy to back, albeit from a silly opening price at odds-on, the son of Uncle Mo looked the part and he travelled comfortably early on. He has a presence about him and moved well into the closing stages. At first I thought the well backed Poetic Flare might win decisively but Lippazaner was keeping on pretty well and seemed at one stage that he might hold on but he succumbed late in the race. I would suggest the form will be comfortably reversed next time out, particularly on better ground and Lippazaner will be as short as a carrot in his next race. He reminded me of Sergei Prokofiev on debut, when he somehow went down to Skitter Scatter before going on to be early favourite for the Coventry Stakes. I would imagine Lippazaner might pitch up in the Marble Hill, which is now run over 6F and is upgraded to Group 3 status this season. If we saw a good one today I suspect it was him.

 

[Ron]

…………..You have to question the value of an odds-on shot in these early races on soft ground but it doesn't seem to stop some people backing them……………..

OK, OK

 

[Ron]

4 00 Devoy Stakes well,strictly on ratings,this should be sir dragonets Race to lose.but i Think,NUMERIAN deserves to Win again,after hitting the crossbar more than once last Season.big shout

Well done

 

[Bustino74]

Sir Dragonet looks like a horse whose heart isn’t in it.

 

[Grendel]

I had to laugh when At The Races headlined that Lemista had set down a Classic Marker. That was a weak Group 3 and the normally bullish Racing Post only managed to rate her 98 for the win. This was her 4th start and the ground was testing. These very early races rarely have relevance on the main body of the season and although we live in trying times it seems desperate to be trying to big-up a moderate horse as the trailblazer for the Classics.