Daily Racing Thread Monday 23rd. March 2020

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AOB runners tend to come on for their first outing so it could be worth taking on his short price fav in the first with Jim Bolgers Poetic Flare 3/1.Bolger won this race last year and has a decent record in this race over the years.
 
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The Devoy stakes at 4.00 is where my focus was tonight. I like the Dermot Weld runner Brogue at 4/1 .He won his maiden nicely enough on debut, looked a little light in his frame still that day. Having been away since I am hopeful that Dermot has him cherry ripe for his seasonal bow, as he so often does, and, perhaps it could be the time to catch out the O'Brien runner Sir Dragonet, whom they all have to beat.

Brogue beat some nice horses on debut in the shape of Barbados and Up Helly Aa, both went on to score readily next time up and Up Helly Aa's form in particular reads well now.

With the weight allowance condisered, I reckon there won't be too much in it between the main protagonists and I'm hopeful Dermot has Brogue fit to roll where as Aidan might have left something to work on. Hallimi will appreciate the ground and Numerian wouldn't need to improve massively to get involved either but I think it's a match and 4/1 is a fair price to upset the fave.

Good luck all.
 
Hefferson could have a good day. Doesn't have one in the 16.30 but even so, could win
 
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Ste D said:
AOB runners tend to come on for their first outing so it could be worth taking on his short price fav in the first with Jim Bolgers Poetic Flare 3/1.Bolger won this race last year and has a decent record in this race over the years.
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This race shows what a complete disconnect there is from O'Brien and "the rest" in Ireland. They paid 650,000gns for Lippizaner whereas last nights move horse, Marketta was purchased for 1,000EU.
Marketta's trainer Brendan Duke has had a winner and a runner up in this race in the last two seasons and that explains to me why there was a move for it last night. I think this will now drift after the initial enthusiasm. Bolger does have a good record in the race and he saddles two respectable looking types. On pedigree the one of his for me is almost certainly Poetic Flare and I would expect that one to be in the shake up.
Lippizaner is a real blue blood and the suggestion in his line is that he could be an early type. The betting suggest though that the yard is not all that confident. A quick look at the previous winners tells you that O'Brien has never won the race but a more in depth study reveals that he has never had a runner. The yard won with their first four juvenile runners last year and my understanding is that they have around half a dozen ready to go. Watch out for one called Horoscope.
Forever My Girl hails from a family of winners and is being nibbled at in the market. If she follows the usual family trait she wouldnt be quite up to winning at the first time of asking.
The one that really caught my eye was The Blue Panther who comes from a family that includes many winners. The dam won on her debut so this could be the sort of early type that this trainer is capable of producing. My one negative over him is the trip as most of what you see in his line are milers. That may not stop him running a place.
Conclusion; A win for LIPPIZANER, place for THE BLUE PANTHER.
 
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Stick will hate this, but I completely agree with him on the first juvenile race of the flat season. Lippizaner looks to be the best horse in the race, and whilst the yard aren't renowned for a fast start to the season, they have had a more positive start to the year according to Timeform's Run To Form (RTF) graph (see attached) and this horse isn't the usual breeding for an AOB juvenile being by a US sire and a AUS mare!

He is an early foal too, and being a colt against fillies I think he has another advantage on half the field. If he is half as good as his pedigree suggests he might be, then he should win an early season maiden.

It is very interesting to see the horse drift to 11/8, which I think is more to do with the artificially short opening market than a negative against the horses chances. If we saw a drift to 5/2 then that would be saying something very different.

I also agree about The Blue Panther, who is my choice for the forecast. A slightly later foaling date is a negative, but he has the pedigree to be an early type and again being a colt is interesting against a mixed field.
 

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All the bookies are shut. I’ll have to bite the bullet and open an online account. Or maybe a telephone account. I would welcome any advice.
 
stick said:
This race shows what a complete disconnect there is from O'Brien and "the rest" in Ireland. They paid 650,000gns for Lippizaner whereas last nights move horse, Marketta was purchased for 1,000EU.
Marketta's trainer Brendan Duke has had a winner and a runner up in this race in the last two seasons and that explains to me why there was a move for it last night. I think this will now drift after the initial enthusiasm. Bolger does have a good record in the race and he saddles two respectable looking types. On pedigree the one of his for me is almost certainly Poetic Flare and I would expect that one to be in the shake up.
Lippizaner is a real blue blood and the suggestion in his line is that he could be an early type. The betting suggest though that the yard is not all that confident. A quick look at the previous winners tells you that O'Brien has never won the race but a more in depth study reveals that he has never had a runner. The yard won with their first four juvenile runners last year and my understanding is that they have around half a dozen ready to go. Watch out for one called Horoscope.
Forever My Girl hails from a family of winners and is being nibbled at in the market. If she follows the usual family trait she wouldnt be quite up to winning at the first time of asking.
The one that really caught my eye was The Blue Panther who comes from a family that includes many winners. The dam won on her debut so this could be the sort of early type that this trainer is capable of producing. My one negative over him is the trip as most of what you see in his line are milers. That may not stop him running a place.
Conclusion; A win for LIPPIZANER, place for THE BLUE PANTHER.
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You the **** is uncle mo ? I’ve never heard of him. Did he win the Derby or the Arc?
 
Here's what i fancy today:

2:00 - Boasting 16/1 ew
2:30 - Grizzly 6/1 win/Ecclesiastical 20/1 ew
3:00 - Dark Vader 11/4 win
3:30 - Justina 7/1 win/Camachita 10/1 ew (4 places)

In the 5:00 there are a fair few newcomers which means a fair amount of unknown in the race. There's two that look kind of interesting to me at huge prices and therefore i've had a small speculative ew play on both:

Karakatta 33/1
Dheisheh 45/1

Both 7 places with Bet365 ew extra
 
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