Monday 18th June Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
8.10 Windsor MAHADEE 22-1 hardly jumps off the page at you but on closer inspection you will that in 2010 he won off marks of 85 and 91. Prior to that he has won off even higher on the AW. His seasonal debut was over an unsuitable distance and has produced a knee jerk reaction from the handicapper who obviously feels he is in decline. He has a piece of form on soft going at Goodwood last season when not beaten far by Starwatch, who I think ran up a sequence. That for me counters the handicappers view and suggests that he is happy and effective with a bit of cut.
Tomorrow evening he runs over his optimum trip off a mark of 75, some 10lbs below his last winning mark and 16lbs below what he has won off on turf.
The yard have been in the winners in the last fortnight and tonights jockey Liam Keniry gets the lions share of their rides.

At 22-1 with PP he merits a little each way punt in a field of horses that all look handicapped to the hilt.
 
Best of luck Stick, interesting logic behind it <ok>

Just had a glance at Day 1 at Royal Ascot. Some corking racing.


The Coventry is absolutely mouthwatering for a juvenile race.



I've got some ideas of what I think are value bets and I will put them all up tomorrow evening. One I will say is that I think my faith in Born To Sea might be very close to being rewarded this time. The penny really dropped with him last time in the Irish 2000 Guineas and had he made his move half a furlong earlier he'd be a Guineas winner- came absolutely thundering home. He reminds me a little bit of Nathaniel last season- an average start followed by an unlucky defeat where they really stayed on strongly (at Chester vs Treasure Beach), before putting in the full performance at Ascot (winning by 5L to Fiorente.)


Any official word on the going as of yet?
 
I could certainly see the each-way part of that bet offering a return Stick and if a couple of those with more obvious chances under perform for one reason or another you could very easily have a winner. The price certainly looks value off of that low mark.

Just by way of Ascot weather update - I am about 3 miles from the course and we have had a completely dry day until about 10pm tonight when it started to rain. It's not heavy though and no heavy rain forcast until Thursday so i am hopeful of decent ground for at least the first two days. The tempreture is also rising a little to 19-20 from Tuesday so may dry it out a little. I would hate for the festival to be spoilt by soft going.
 
Never mind Ascot, get your selfs to the Auteuil Cards today Uno Alco 13.05 and Brixen 15.10 nice little EW double should give you some ammo for the weeks racing

Stay Frosty
 
Hello gents.

Not horse related but if you like a bet then there's value to be had in the NBA finals series between the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Heat won game three last night and seem to be able to pull out enough defence when it matters to blunt the Thunder's second and third best scoring options which effectively means that although Kevin Durant is still getting his high 20's points per game, the support isn't there in the way it has been throughout the season so they are making life very tough for themselves down the stretch.

The Heat now lead the best of seven series 2-1. Watching the highlights this morning the ESPN analyst said that when a series has been tied 1-1 going into game three, the winner of that game has won the championship 85% of the time. That got me thinking about the Heat's price at the moment to win the series. They are 1-2 favourites. That looks like value to me.
 
Good morning gents, and a good one its turning out to be...

Not loads to go at today, but the week will get better for that, but i like the look of a few at Carlisle... So...

3.15 - Bartley, 5/2 - CD winner with the same conditions as today, soft, leading claims...

3.45 - Red Roar, 6/1 - Has run well here before and has no probs with the going... Graham Lee in fine fettle at the mo as well...

4.45 - Botham, 7/1 - Ground will be in his favour, won his last 2 races last year on soft going... Lee up top again for hopefully a good days double...

Singles n Doubles...<cheers>
 
Stick if the ground is indeed soft at Warwick then MPL has a great chance. However, id be very much aware of the Balding horse MOMENT OF TIME who is a very dangerous maiden. She went from 2 maidens straight into listed company and was getting outpaced lto at Newmarket before staying on. Quite often those types of horses are at home on softer ground and I think the market badly overlooks her.
 
8.10 Great Charm 16/1 EW

I know Stick has put up a horse in the race, and I respect his opinion, but I really like the look of Great Charm for the Kubler's. He impressed me on his debut for the yard, running a fair race over seven furlongs at Chepstow and he showed enough to suggest that he isn't unfairly handicapped. The handicapper has left him on 74 which is a slight shame as I thought they could reduce it a pound or so for his run, but he now steps up to a mile on ground that is likely to be similar. The form of that race looks fair with the winner running a good race in defeat on his next start, and I think if Great Charm improves for his return run he could be very interesting here.

The yard have the following to say "Great Charm is declared for the 8.10 at Windsor with Mickael Barzalona on board on Monday 18th of June. With the abandonment of Leicester on Saturday this seemed like an opportunity to test the water with Great Charm over a mile for the first time &#8211; it will be interesting to see how he gets on. He looks well and worked nicely last weekend following his run at Chepstow for which he should strip a bit fitter. The opposition is interesting with Top Diktat looking to have conditions to suit and having shown plenty of progression as a three year old. Pat&#8217;s Legacy if rediscovering his old form looks like he is at a level he can be very competitive at. Snow Trooper is in good heart having won over course and distance last week and if able to move forward again from that could be vying for the follow up. If handling the softer conditions Great Shot could have a &#8230;"



Good luck all.
 
I notice there is some interest in the 8.10 Windsor tonight. An interesting handicap to say the least!
Can understand Sticks and Nasseaus interest in their respective selections, both nice prices and have chances.
The one that takes my eye has a similar profile to Mahadee. Dropping down the weights, good pevious form off lower marks and has gone well with cut before.
Also a C&D winner!!!

Pats Legacy. 25/1.

Might back all3 in the place market on Betfair....and a wee dabble in the win market on all 3 too!!!

Good luck chaps!!
 
20:10 Windsor - Top Diktat

(Top weight should go well in this. Progressive, handles the ground well, and stays the distance).
 
I've done a Frankel and Black Caviar double with laddies today as they were offering Evens max bet £25 anyone else think that's pretty generous??
 
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