Monday 16th July Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
We have rather missed the boat when it comes to DIVINE PAMINA 8.10 Windsor but I guess 14-1 is not to be sniffed at, the 33-1 opening price would be much nicer though! This filly ran a really good race at Goodwood on only her second start under tonights jockette Ms Hayley Turner and then of course had absolutely no chance when encountering Michelangelo on her latest run. She has shown plenty of promise and back to what I think should be the ideal trip she has an absolute featherweight in her debut handicap. The yard obviously agree and its being gambled.
Any winnings will be going straight on MINOAN DANCER 8.40 Windsor 11-8 who at the risk of looking a mug I feel has been gifted this by the handicapper. She beat the decidedly useful Godolphin horse SILENT MOMENT on her debut after running very green. That rival has franked the form twice in the meantime and I think this Minoan Dancer will absolutely bolt up here.
 
Evening Stick.

Totally agree with Minoan Dancer <ok> that Silent Moment bolted up off 79 lto (4 lengths) have to think this Stoutey horse is well in off 80. Divine Pamina is interesting.

One I will back tomorrow even though I shouldn't get involved is CATCH A PEACH (3.55 Dundalk) has been well looked after in two maidens so far - I said she is one for handicaps but I will be tempted to play if she is a decent price as I think she has ability.
 
I also like that Minoan Dancer guy's, looks to have a great chance and the price isn't too bad for a nice punt for me.
 
Divine Pamina's price continues to fall and the more I watch her three races the more I see a handicap snip. I would be feeling very smug right now if I had got on earlier. Looking at her runs I reckon Hayley will get her out in front and outstay them. We shall see.
 
I was getting interested until you mentioned Hayley. I had two horses with outstanding chances on Saturday and Hayley was on them. I gave up with them some way out. She just looked as though she was lacking something and had me saying "I won't be backing a horse with her on again". I'm sure she's a good rider and she has winners but after watching her closely on those 2 horses my confidence in her went down some. I'd never watched her closely before.
 
Good call on Devine Pamina Stick, those that have the big prices each way have one very good bet to look forward to tomorrow, it is down as low as 9's now which i think is about right. I actually think your second selection Minoan Dancer is the better value now and will not be surprised if that goes off odds on. The bookies do seem to get Haggas runners pretty correct and if there is a lack of support for his runner tomorrow i cannot see the bookies putting up anything else to touch the Stoute horse and so evens 4-5 may be likely. I have just had a bet on it at 11-8 best odds.

Good luck to you on the double.
 
Looks like someone knows something for sure, still have seen theses things happen alot and come to nothing but goodluck, i hope it hacks up for you.
 
A good evening ta al ma supporters, a stunning firs week on tha boards with a 16/1 10/1 3/1 & 100/30 advised, plus several juicy places. Now i always look fa value an i hav a wee stoater fa tamara.

TOBY TYLER - (Ayr, 14:35) should be trading around tha 25 -33/1 mark

JOB DONE!!
 
Purely based on the going, I'm going against you Stick (which is why you're top of L1 and I'm not). I really like the look of Minoan Dancer (lovely breeding, unraced at 2, Stoute/Moore) but ground is just a big question mark so I'll plump for Last Shadow.

For similar reasons I'm also attracted to Keene Dancer but again the ground is a big question mark. Your selection did show promise on soft at 2 and was in a valuable race lto. I'll go for Bunraku.

I wouldn't back either but just feel like a bit of fun, trying to pick one to beat yours.
 
Sometimes ability can beat how well a horse is supposed to travel on the ground, you can't simply look at it from one point of view.
 
On extremes of going a horse can run a stone or more below its ability so I would never back a horse running on extreme* going regardless of its ability, especially at cramped odds. That's not to say it won't win of course. Look at Camelot in the Irish Derby. He did win but clearly he is beatable on heavy ground.

Of course, there is always the possibility that the horse might be even better on ground not encountered before. I just don't like taking the chance.


Edit. * that it hadn't encountered before
 
If none of the horses have encountered the conditions it's just a lottery.
 
Morning All

Ger lyons expects his 2 juvenile runners at Dundalk today to run very well so on that note this afternoons bets are

1:25-Golden Flower E/W 12/1
2:25-Highest Office E/W 16/1
 
A few picks from Ayr for me, I refuse to believe the ground is "good"!

2:35 - HILLS OF DAKOTA 6/1 (NAP) - Has slipped down to a very useful mark, likes give in the ground. Will be laying the fav too, carrying far too much weight with the ex6, 1lb more than it has ever carried in 87 runs. Fallon on board isn't enough to convince me that an 8 year old can suddenly become so progressive.

3:35 - KIMBALI 5/2

4:05 - INDEPUB 4/1

Write up for rest coming when i get a chance hopefully.
 
Morning, all. Hope everyone well. Cor blimey, it&#8217;s raining again at the moment. This will make the ground, round my way, on the waterlogged side of waterlogged.

If asked to describe today&#8217;s racing in 3 words then I would respond &#8216;lacking and uninspiring&#8217; and for that reason the &#8216;no bet&#8217; banner is currently fluttering in the breeze. It will be very, and I do mean very, interesting though to see how 2013 Derby favourite Mars fares on his racecourse bow at Dundalk this afternoon (2.25). Is he as good as they reckon?!? We will go some way to finding that out later on, methinks.
 
Famouswise going against "THE BEST WE HAVE EVER HAD HORSE" <laugh>

12/1 for next years Derby already - makes 4/7 look good for MARS
 
What's been said about Mars to get that price for the Derby? I remember SNA was 40/1 at this stage for the Derby. How can Mars be 12's
 
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