MITO's Block of Four...

Its late

 

On my laptop it was only 2!

 

Is there a trend starting here?

 

In a nutshell anyone.....we're doing well, aren't we??

 

All depends, doc.
Draw with Villa- we're ****e.
Tonk Everton, - we're world beaters.
Don't buy a saviour in the January window, we're ****e.
Draw with Baggies,- End Of The World.
Blow Arse out of the water,- Top Of The World.
Game against Fulham,-( insert description here)

 

Unbeaten in 8

 

Mmmmm, as we didnt buy a saviour and the draw with Baggies meant two ****es and the win against Arseanl was a positive surely the Fulham game must be a positive. That way there has been two ****es and two positives

 

I wasn't suggesting there was a pattern to our results, just a predictable response to them.

 

I wasnt suggesting you were suggesting

I was just trying to get a positive spin on the Fulham game

 

Basically, as a season progresses, expectations change. Its a simple case of the grass is always greener IMO; in the summer, we had a target of getting top four. Now we are doing so well, have a slight margin for error in the race for fourth and aren't too far behind the leaders, expectations / hopes have gone up meaning the 76pt target MITO set out is seen as a fairly low target.

My expectations do not change. I wanted us to challenge for top four but didn't think we would achieve it. The fact that we are in such a good position certainly helps but there is still little in it between us, Spurs and Everton. This is why you won't catch me getting carried away or joining in with the title talk. I just don't believe it will happen. I don't think Arsenal can win the league, a stance I've maintained all season, so why would I think we can (obviously, the 5-1 is going to be pointed out here)

 

I believe that is probably the default position now. I've shouted LOUD AND PROUD all season that we should AIM for the title and that we CAN win the title but like you accept that we probably won't. I see nothing now to change that stance. Hence my argument with MITO is purely about the effectiveness of his system in the situation we now find ourselves with a reducing number of games.

 

We (the people within the club, not necessarily the fans) should be aiming for top spot until it is mathematically impossible but they shouldn't be declaring title aspirations in public either, why put unnecessary pressure on yourself?

I still like the block system. As I said behave, it keeps perspective. If we drop points to a Villa or WBA, we often see a response on this board that suggests the end of the world is upon us. A simple look at this thread kills those negatives stone dead IMO, especially when you are able to beat rival teams such as Everton and Arsenal in the process.

PS...not saying I need this thread, just that its not useless

 

If we maintain our current points-per-game average 76 is what we get.
My argument is that the points are more evenly spread this season (amongst the top clubs) than most recent ones and I don't see anyone making 90 on current performance.
76, could possibly get us (or another) higher than 4th, but I'd obviously like us to get stronger and get into the 80's.

 

Fixed.

 

Winning sides often finish stronger than the rest of the season. I could equally see the likes of Man City or Chelsea going on a fantastic run or stagnated (to a degree) like they have been doing. Basically, I think its impossible to call ATM.

 

In the end this is predicated on history, ie in the past side have won the title on x.. sides finished 4th on y and teams who are safe get z.

I've stated many times, 90 is for champions, 70 for CL and 40 for safety. yes yes yes of course on a particular year someone can be 73 or another year 67. thats fine if we played that game we'd predict nothing. far more often than not 70 points get 4th and conversely on many occasions in the past while 90 is challenging but does get done. i could have said 85 but that gets beat regularly in history.


whether or not anyone looks this year like getting 90 points yet its possible but again this year it might be 87 and next year it could be 93... but the target is more or less valid.

so if we get into the 80s in points great... that would mean in theory we have 70 odd points with 3 games to go and feel like mourinho that anything is possible.

If we are fighting for 4th on the last day i am sure i'll be nail biting

We are frankly tracking for 4th right now. so unless our form does pick up radically (and there's nothing changed in january and no real change in away form) there's nothing to assume that our form will pick up OR tail off. This is not a bad thing.

My opinion is that we have the following games; Utd, city, chelsea, tottenham simply cannot be predicted. all 4 have top sides even if utd are is dire straights. the rest are all winnable but the mix of home v away is interesting. If we think theres 30 points out of 39 points up for grabs grand but i feel that 20 out of 39 isn't really a big ask.

Fulham
Swansea
Southampton
Sunderland
Man United
Cardiff
Tottenham
West Ham
Manchester City
Norwich
Chelsea
Crystal Palace
Newcastle

9 games that are winnable plus 4 that are unpredictable IMO. 9x3 = 27.

we really are still on for 76 points and that combines me predicting results with mapping forward the trend points 50/25*38 = 76 points.

if we beat it great. what i like is there is some slop for a bad result.

 

MITO that's just making the numbers fit the argument. It really takes no analytical account of any of our opponents in terms of their recent performance and league situation.

When was the last time that the league was so tight both at the top and the bottom? When 2 wins for the bottom club can appear to lift them into relative safety you have to say that apart from the top5 sides we have left to play, all of our other games are actually relegation scraps.

 

No but it takes into account our performance. We play every team (twice) so the details of the opponent are not so important over a season.

We are averaging 2 points and 2.5 goals per game. Those numbers are not made up. Unless something changes they suggest we will earn 70+ points.

 

TBF, the only way you can take every teams situation into account is by looking at the league table and remaining fixtures. However, this thread is about Liverpool Football Club and a target has been set using the average points totals of previous seasons. Nothing wrong with that as a gauge IMO

 

not really. i put all of these numbers out there in the past.

in any event I am deliberately ignoring short term performance, stating general targets that teams ought to look to to deliver success in each band, 1st, 4th etc.

when was the league last so tight? last year the title was not tight but utd got 89 points... 4th was a real rat race and spurs failed on 72 points while arsenal got 73.

the year prior the title was decided in the last minute of extra time... the title went for 89 points... 4th went for 69 points but it was not a real race as chelsea fell apart. spurs and arsenal tussled more for 3rd.

if you go back another year you find the huge outlyer in the past 10 years. utd won the thing with the lowest total 80 points the next 3 were 71,71,68 with arsenal 4th again no real battle for 4th/5th

in 2009/10 cheslea won it with 86 points. spurs took 4th with 70 points, city were racing them then and ende don 67.

in 2008/09 utd won on 90 points arsenal took 4th on 72.


I can keep going here...

the point is its all 38 games there are always some rivalries and races and honestly I think history shows that 90 points is a pretty high but good target for champions. It was once our record after all... record is now 95 which is what chelsea delivered.

equally 4th has been around the 70 point mark.

The league is indeed tight at the bottom, no question the bottom 10 have become detached and anyone can get relegated.

I would have put this down lasts as the season blackpool went down... BUT the record for team going down was west ham on 42. really 40 points aint a bad target.


..................

that said yes anything can happen and yes by the time the last 5 games rolls around everyone is fighting and there no time left to come back from a slip up... in other words can we boil this down to teams simply run out of games? This is the must win them all focus?

If we are talking 10 game sout, its getting close to that especially at the top, with 5 games to go yes all bets are off and a side can simply choke.

who knows but the history and trends show that USUALLY 90 points, 70 points, 40 points are the big numbers. I could have picked 86 points for the top spot sure but i picked 90......