MITO's Block of Four...

7 points from that set. Not bad considering we played both Everton and Arsenal away from home.

Next set is absolutely vital. Hull (A), Norwich (H), West Ham (H) and Tottenham (A).

Hull is going to be a very difficult game, but for me we have to get 9 points out of these games at least. With harder groups coming up afterwards.

 

I can see us getting 10 or 12 points

Hull shouldn't be a difficult game, these are the games we simply HAVE to be winning.

 

Should be winning, but Hull have shown enough to me that suggests they'll be difficult to beat. Not convinced by any of our away performances so far this season either.

 

I'd argue that we have (not should) be winning games like Hull away to stay in and around the top 4. Yeah a slip up here and there is bound to happen, but I personally don't rate Hull very highly at all

 

12 games, 24 points. 2 points per game. Bang on target so far.

From the next 4 you'd hope we'd get at least 9 points which will give us a "free game" v Spurs

 

I take that back - Hull 0 - 1 Palace

 

MITO, when you work these out does it take into account the possible increase/decrease in points required for CL?
Supposing that city chelsea and utd are the most likely CL candidates, they have already dropped a lot of points, therefore the entry level for CL will prob decrease unless all three go virtually unbeaten, is there a chance the points needed maybe revised in jan?
I know we dropped a few too btw

 

Is that even possible?

Its based on the average over the last few seasons

 

No idea we seem to talk a lot about that sort of thing would imagine it takes someone with a load of brain power and shat loads of free time, oh and there should be a pie chart (3D)

But cheers

 

Gerrez would have it for breakfast

 

I'd say its impossible. The likes of Spurs, Man Utd and Everton might be outside the top four come the New Year (just used current for arguments sake) but there is nothing to say they won't hit champions form and climb the table. Same vice-versa, nothing saying Man City, Chelsea or Arsenal won't completely collapse. Obviously, it is unlikely but as unlikely as it is, it could happen making a "rolling target" impossible.

 

#snack

 

Fair enough but we still get a pie chart representing impossible - yeah ?

 

There are charts above. Not sure how you could use a pie chart? I'll leave it with MITO

 

.

 

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the answer here is quite simple.

I could say that the current standing and work a moving target out based on current points + games remaining x targeted points tally per game.

I could indeed do a point chart but the graphical nature of the chart i have done does highlight something.

When you see todays you'll see it. Basically our actual point line intersects the trend line and we move bloew the trend line effectively the "targeted points per game" increases for us to get back.

In other words right now we need to win the next 3 games minimum to go into the christmas with a chance of being on the 70point trend line.

2/3 points x 38 x 3 = 76 points. I'd bite your arm off for that at the start of the season.
same as i'd bite yer arm off for a draw at everton away... before the game.

however just as joe allen drew back his boot for an open goal and 3-1 i would be fuming if thats all we got out of it.... I find the whole well at the start would you have accepted argument annoying as it only arises when you have not achieved all you could but you try to lessen the blow. we are wanting to be winners... winners don't accept less than the best.


...................

Basically if you look at the past 10-15 years of the Premiership you will find on the league has improved some as more rich teams appear so the points tally as been rising for 4th. for the past 5 years the average 4th place is 70.4points and over the 10 years its 68.4points. 4th goes for 70 points, sometimes more, sometimes less.


[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]4th[/td]
[td]5th[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012/13[/td]
[td]73[/td]
[td]72[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011/12[/td]
[td] 69[/td]
[td]65[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010/11[/td]
[td] 68[/td]
[td]62[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009/10[/td]
[td] 70[/td]
[td]67[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008/09[/td]
[td] 72[/td]
[td]63[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2007/08[/td]
[td] 76[/td]
[td]65[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2006/07[/td]
[td] 68[/td]
[td]60[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005/06[/td]
[td] 67[/td]
[td]65[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2004/05[/td]
[td] 61[/td]
[td]58[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2003/04[/td]
[td] 60[/td]
[td]56[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

The other important thing here is the gap to 5th. on many occasions its been + 5 points, sometimes less than 3 but there is no real correlation between a tighter race for 4th and increased points.

The only trend I can see is a fairly consistent 70 point target for 4th place.

Now having said that there is a calculation i could so which would be: (70-current points)/games remaining = 1.77 points as of today.

1.77x4 = 7.07 points per 12. right on lfcs progression.

 

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OP updated

 

so block 5, 8 and 9 are the ones to look at. you hammer the lower teams and dig in and try not to lose against the big sides.


7/12? minimum i'd expect now.

please also not we are behind the green line. green = 80 points and a great year. we've fallen of that pace now but the alarm bells will ring if we fall off the 70 point line in black