Something I forgot to mention in my preview was how terrible Magic Circle's form has worked out this season. I like to use At The Races to check the future form of races contenders ran in previously. Magic Circle landed the Chester Cup but in 58 subsequent runs there was only ONE winner. He then landed the Group 3 Henry II at Sandown but in 22 subsequent runs there were ZERO winners. It added up to 80 runs producing a single winner of a Pontefract handicap and that horse ran awfully in the aftermath. Magic Circle was also 16 lbs higher up the weights than when he ran in the Chester Cup. Sometimes the form of non handicap races just doesn't work out but you would expect Chester Cup races to pan out going forward. The previous Chester Cup won by Montaly has seen 16 future win, albeit there has been an extra 12 months.
Top 5 Euro horses What a run from Prince Of Arran for Charlie Fellowes. RIP Cliffs Of Moher, decent animal
With eight of the first dozen home being from this hemisphere, I wonder if the Aussies will be so keen to see so many foreign raiders in future years. Their handicapper could give them all a few pounds more to carry to give the locals a chance. A mate of mine had Magic Circle at some silly price immediately after the good doctor declared he was sending him Down Under and I know he was getting up at silly o’clock to watch the race. Disappointed for everyone concerned that the horse reportedly bled so probably did not show his true running. Very sad that Cliffs Of Moher was fatally injured during the race, thankfully a very rare occurrence.
Was the European dominance simply down to ground? Not sure how often the Aussie horses would see that sort of going and I would imagine the Northern hemisphere horses are (a) more used to cut and (b) more stoutly bred?
No Oddy, we just aren't up to when it comes to staying races. The UK are the premier breeders of stayers in the world. I don't know too much about the state of Northern tracks, other than they certainly look more testing, with deeper ground. With all these things factored in and our penchant for speed, we're up against it in races like the cup. And with the top weight pegged at 9 stone 2 pounds, and probably too many overseas qualifying races, we end up with a lack of numbers when the race rolls around. For the first few yeas of the "open slather" approach to invaders, there was a great deal of angst. It was pretty easy to see which way the race was heading, it looked all down hill for a lot of folks. But to honest I think it's a major plus. We now have a global event that the power houses are keen to chase. It isn't in our best interests to drag the standard down, we have to somehow breach the gap from our end. And I suppose that comes down to improving out staying lines. I guess the bottom line for Australian racing is that as important as the Melbourne Cup is to our culture, it won't be enough to turn a speed culture on it's head. Just as the UK wants to lead the world in staying stock, we want the same from sprinting. The trouble is that those pesky Americans can breed some serious "low fliers" as well.
Cross Counter will be aimed at the Dubai Gold Cup on 30th March. Said to have put on 25kg since the Melbourne Cup, I think he is worth a bet for the Dubai Gold Cup at 9/1. Favourite at 3/1 Vazirabad is getting long in the tooth. A defense of the Melbourne Cup is said to be Cross Counter's priority this season. I think 25/1 seems a good bet for that event, so I'll play early at those odds. Cross Counter Dubai Gold Cup 9/1 Cross Counter Melbourne Cup 25/1 The gelding surely has scope to improve a bit further and he's already very good,
There is some doubt as to whether Vazirabad will run in the Dubai Gold Cup this season. Cross Counter is generally 6/4 Fav now. As always, actually winning the race will be the hard part.
