Maxims of Thoroughbred Racing

Thanks guys for your imput, Filon about the wind factor i have to agree,i only considered it ,if it blowing strong.I.ve seen it many a time when its blowing behind the horses down the back stretch and everyone is just ripping it, but when they come round the turn, bang they stop like they have hit a wall. I will use the wind direction more in my assesments of races.
Nass regarding weight, as you say every punter looks at things differently. But it does not matter what weight a horse is carrying, whether it be a ton or a feather, if the horse is not conditioned he will not win.But a good apprentice jockey with a weight allowance can make the difference.

 

Thanks for your input guys,

 

My main maxims are:

Ignore the ground - it is the same for all of them and most horses are not affected by the going (ignore all that c**p about a horse's action).

On the flat follow the best horsemen in very soft going - Cauthen and Swinburn are obvious ones from the recent past - and of course the great Lester before that. Hughes would be the best of the current crop, I reckon.

Ignore tips unless from a thoroughly reliable source and especially ignore newspaper tipsters - most of the latter know no more than you or I.

Give special attention to winners of a race in previous years and also trainers with a good record in a race

Allow a good few pounds for the very best -notably Walsh over the jumps, who is out on his own at present

 

You surprise me with that one Fulkes. Is that a wind up?

 

No it's not Ron. The affect of the ground is overrated in my opinion. I've often sat and watched C4 racing and heard the pundits saying a horse's action will not be suited by the prevailing soft going only for it to romp home. I find it is best to ignore the going - there are far bigger factors, such as 'is the horse good enough'.

 

A horse with a pronounced round action will always handle the soft going better Fulkes. It's to do with the way the feet hit the ground. Conversely, the horse with the pronounced round action, for the same reason, is more likely to jar on the firm ground. It is a fact, that some horses, when subjected to firm going, run far below their form achieved on soft going and it's because they are less comfortable on the firm going due to their action; and vice versa. In fact if a horse with a pronounced round action repeatedly ran on firm ground it would probably cripple itself. If a horse with a smooth long flowing action ran repeatedly on very soft going it's just as likely to do a tendon.

 

Great Article, and alot of interesting responses!*

The most important attribute of a good gambler is discipline, this is the number 1 attribute, and if you dont have it you wont be succesful!*

Have a look through the form in the morning and pick out the horses you fancy, if the price represents value in your opinion back them. If all your selections lose and you take a big hit, go for a walk and try to allow yourself to calm down emotionally, because if you've just done your bollocks in the 4.00 and you see a short price favourite in the 4.05 it is very hard to resist trying to get out of trouble on it, and the majority of the time you will get further behind. It's always best to take a break after a big loss to allow your head to clear, so you can start thinking straight again. The next day you will have a full days racing to find good bets to recoup your losses on, so there is no point acting rationally trying to get your money back on races that you haven't picked out a standout selection in. *just remain patient and wait for the right race to have a bet in. *

Alot of being a good gambler is in your head, and being able to control your emotions, becoming emotionally attached to certain horses is a big no no, and if you do never under any circumstances back that horse, because it will alway be your heart ruling your head. As a few of you may know Denman is a horse I love, probably my favourite jumper ever, I became attached to him from a very early stage of his career, and when he won the Gold Cup I was so over the moon. I was close to tears when he won that second Hennessy, I've never been so proud of a horse. but in this years Gold Cup I was able to look at the race objectively and I made a Fortune on Long Run. Long Runs price was stupidly big because of the admiration the public had for horses like Denman and Kauto Star, so they were always going to attract sentimental money, but a good gambler can take advantage of these sort of situations, as it makes other runners in the race tremendous value. There was no way that either of the two 11 year olds could win, based on the age of previous winners. I still found myself going crazy when i seen the tank come to claim Kauto Star at the second last. I honestly thought he was going to do it, and I found myself roaring him on. I had had a pretty big bet on Long Run, but I was still shouting **** off Long Run as he appeared late on the scene to beat Denman. I was totally gutted. How strange is that feeling gutted after backing a winner. The point I'm making is some of us love certain horse's that's just the way some of us are, but it's about being able to control those emotions when investing the cash and thankfully I was able to do that Gold Cup day, were as if I was a mug punter or a punter who bets for fun and not profit I would have lost my money on Denman.*

Carlton House was another chance for the top gamblers to take advantage of sentimental money being wagered for the queens horse. Had this horse been owned by any other owner he would have been knowere near as short for either Derby, I doubt he would have started favourite for the Irish Derby, but again mug punters drove the price down, which allowed us smarter punters to invest on Treasure Beach, who had easily the best form, through Nathaniel in the Chester Vase, and through finishing infornt of all the main contenders in the race at Epsom.

Gambling is a tricky game, and it doesnt matter what sort of sport you are betting on, you must be able to look at things objectively, and try to avoid having favourite horse, trainers and jockeys even if it is hard. Some people moan about the flat and say the horses retire to soon, and the jumps is so much better as you see your old favourites year in year out, but it's better to have no favourites, that's why it's easier to pick winners on the flat, as your less likely to become emotionally attached.*

It's like football supporters betting on the football, they back the team they support blindly, because they can't look at there matches objectively.*

As for betting Guidelines, it's purely instinctive, I don't have any set rules I follow, as every race is different, it's just about experience. Just go for the horse with the best form, and try to look past excuses for beaten horses, because the majority of the time excuses are just sour grapes, Carlton House at Epsom being the prime example of this, this season *

 

I won't dispute any of that Ron, especially the point on welfare. If a horse is so unsuited to the going it should not be running and I often think the pundits are talking about the horse's action for the sake of something to say. Otherwise why would the actual race prove them wrong so often - that is the point I was trying to make.
But I have learnt from bitter experience over the years not to use the going as an eliminating factor.

 

FulkesFestival40: Don't fully agree with you on going but we're all entitled to our opinions. I do agree with you on being shocked at times when so-and-so horse wins on, say, very soft ground, when it damn well shouldn't have! Have lost a packet a few times in my life on this theme. When ground conditions are extreme, I must admit to enjoy delving into the horse's breeding background to see what grandpa or grandma liked as regards the going, just makes racing the more enjoyable for me.

On the same topic, someone really should introduce you to Nick Millard of SL Radio. He is a "going" fanatic. I must have heard him say a hundred times "What's the most important factor...............the going!". I'd like to be a fly on the wall to listen to your conversation with him. Would be interesting!

Enjoyed this thread, from a good article by Islanderpei.

 

Fulkes: This "going" topic has jogged the old memory a bit and I do recall something that happened many years ago. Found myself doing the first of many jobs in Singapore and the story unfolds at the old, now defunct, Bukit Timah racecourse. There was a very good Australian-bred horse running there in those days by the name of Royal Worlington, think it was. He was a good and consistent racehorse who competed in the upper grades. To give his absolute best he needed good or firm ground. The locals, just like us, had their own individual ways of working out a winner but just about all of them paid particular attention to the ground conditions. Well, came one Saturday at a Bukit Timah meeting when the going was heavy, after a day or two of fierce monsoon rains. And here was Royal Worlington in a race in which, had the going been good, would have been favourite no doubt. The local betting fraternity ignored him, including the writer. He started at silly odds and, you guessed it, won comfortably, with his Australian jockey grinning broadly. It was really a bit comical afterwards as I'd never seen so many Singaporean racegoers scratching their collective heads and muttering "Royal Worlington, on heavy going??". Afterwards, I tried hard to figure it out and there was really only one possible answer. In this particular race Royal Worlington, who carried top-weight too, was very much the class horse. And class did indeed tell. We all missed that!.......

 

Love the Singapore story Filon D'or. Kind of backs up and scuppers my maxim at the same time! I just became frustrated at the number of times I had discounted a winner because of previous form on the ground.

I don't listen to Nick Millard but would be prepared to argue that a horse's ability is a bigger factor than the going!

 

"I don't listen to Nick Millard but would be prepared to argue that a horse's ability is a bigger factor than the going!"

Very good point, Fulkes, that's why I want to be a fly on the wall. Would be a really interesting discussion between Nick and yourself........

 

I would like to clarify my point. Whether a horse goes well on the ground can not be determined purely from the form book. So a horse that has done all its winning on a sound surface could quite easily be just as good or even better on softer ground (and vice versa). The action of the horse is much more relevant as it explains why the horse will not act on a particular going.

 

Whilst I agree that the going can be overplayed, I wouldnt go as far as to ignore it. The reason it is overplayed is because trainers use it as an excuse if one of there horses gets beat, when alot of the time it's just there horses isn't as good as the one who beat it. Though It's a fact that the firmer the going, the more favourites win, which suggests the best horse will have more chance of winning on firmer going.

So I agree the going is overplayed, but it is still very important. The debate about a horses action Is an interesting one, whilst I do agree some pundits bang on about the action, just to make them sound like they know what there talking about, there are other pundits who know what there talking about.

The majority of horses run with a low knee action, which is suited to good to firm, firm ground, that's why form is more reliable on firmer ground and more favourites go in, as most horses are suited by firm ground. Though there are some horses who have very high knee actions, and these horses tend to be the larger less athletic horses. Because of there size they hit the ground with alot more force than most horses, so on firm ground it can become uncomfortable for them and cause injury, though once the ground is soft they are still hitting the ground hard, but the ground is absorbing the force, so it wont feel uncomfortable for them. A firmer ground horse, because they have a lower knee action, they don't hit the ground with so much force, so they get stuck in the mud, so to speak

 

Also the angle at which the foot hits the ground Shergar has a bearing. Just to mention, a horse with a round (high knee) action can be any size. We had a pony (137cms) with a pronounced round action and did she love it muddy when others were struggling.

 

That's exactly what I found Reebok; virtually all races had a line through them and eventually I stopped betting.

Love your story about your whippet champion. Similar to the arab stallion that was brought to us to sell because when the breeders saw him as a 4yo they had told the owner to have him cut as he wasn't good enough. He is now Champion of Normandy 2 years running and has a free invitation to challenge for Champion of France in September. I used to show afghan hounds and also judged them. On a couple of occasions I judged whippets too; once in a whippet class and once in AV Hound. Are you still racing/showing?

 

I think we are coming together on this now Ron. Previous form on certain ground is what I tend to ignore. My point about the action was more a dig at certain TV pundits who often comment on a horse's action when more often than not the going will not inconvenience any of the runners (unless it is heavy or very fast, both of which are much rarer these days with the advances in drainage and watering).