But how? Without the aid of the tables, I have us on 40, Villa on 40 with a worse GD, and Wigan on 35 (let's assume they beat Arsenal and are on 38. So into the final game of the season, it's: Saints 40 Villa 40 Sunderland 39 Wigan 38 Villa have no more games to gain GD on us except the Wigan game. For such a swing, we would have to concede loads against Stoke, and Villa would need to smack Wigan. So Wigan would not go above us, even if Villa did. If Wigan gained by demolishing our GD, they would have to smack Arsenal and Villa into next week, so Villa would not be able to go above us on GD. A draw for Wigan against Villa and Wigan could not go above us, even if they did have superior GD. I make that 100% safe - can someone show me what I'm missing?
Clearly not a statistics man then! Untill it is matematically impossible to go down, it cannot be called 100%, as 100% means it will never happen.
Indeed. I don't understand people complaining or picking faults at this time. That is for later. Right now we should be savouring the moment. Two years ago we were in league one. About six months ago, we were bottom of the table with just four points from our opening ten games. It's a day for celebration, and I hope and expect that those celebrations will again be on display next Sunday too. Brilliant achievement.
It won't ever happen. Deal with it. A team that's got 12 goals in 17 away games is incapable of getting 12+ goals in one match. Most likely going to need 13+. That's a 0% probability to me. It just can't happen. You could play the match billions of times over and the result would literally never happen. It's like saying hitting a 6 off every ball in a 20 over cricket game is possible when it really isn't on a standard boundary.
Ah, I see the scenario now. So we go below Villa on GD, and then even if Wigan beat them (after first beating Arsenal), we can go down. Got you.
But why do Villa need to smack in all those goals against Wigan? Why can't we concede all those goals ourselves? Wigan beat Arsenal, Wigan beat Villa, We lose to Stoke by 12 goals PLUS however many Villa lose by. (And Sunderland don't lose to Spurs) It is never, ever, ever going to happen. But it might, so is not 100%.
Power went out around 55 minutes so I've just seen the result. Neato. Quite relieved we're staying up, top 4 next year then lads?
Too right. We looked in real trouble in November and the players have done brilliantly since then. The players are tiring and understandably so. I am confident if we can strengthen our squad we will finish in the top half next season.
If you look at everything i have said, you will see that I have stated I know we will stay up, that I thought 39 points would be enough when we got to the mark. This is a match thread, and there is no talk of the game. Don't tell me the odds, and give some lovely other examples to simplify it for me.. I have already stated I know them.
Deflating end of the season, could have finished in dominant style and began a charge to take through the summer and into the season, but alas, we have run out of gas. Disappointing but in reality we have achieved what we have set out to accomplish this season, and have done so with a group made largely of inexperienced youngsters who will only get better (With a few old farts sprinkled in) and a squad that at it's core has come all the way from League One in the space of three years. We are much closer to the top half than it seems, both in regards to our points total and quality. The sad reality is that whilst some of our players have shown that they belong at this level, some have shown that they don't, and that has undermined us more than anything. People think that the transition from also-rans to winners has to be done through an overhaul of players and huge investment, but the most important change is mental. We've conceded just as many points through a lack of confidence and belief as we have from poor play or lack of quality. The overriding impact Ferguson has had on United is mentality, he hasn't necessarily built the best squads (Although he's had some good ones), or had the best tactics, but he has produced footballing machines designed only to gain points and not affected by the same strife as mere mortals. I'm not saying we need to replicate this or that we will, but is the area in which we most need to make the biggest strides, we will do this with a lot effort, a bit of time, a bit of luck and a unified belief flowing from the top through the management, players and fans. It's been the case all season, people get too carried away when we win and too suicidal when we lose. All the reasons we had for optimism two or three weeks ago remain, we have a lot of progress left to be made but no more than we have already made. Next week isn't a time to be counting points, goal difference, goals scored, or any of that (Not the time to do it now, either), it is time to support and thank the players, Nicola, Mauricio and Nigel for taking us to a position we couldn't have dreamt of three years ago, and looking forward to where we will be in three years time.
I think that the league positions are a bit misleading. Whoever comes 17th isn't as bad as they seem with all the teams close together on points and being close to a top half finish. Likewise, whoever gets 10th hasn't been hugely solid as they aren't far off relegation.
It may interest you to know that Stoke City aren't noted for their free scoring nature these days. In fact, the last time they scored, what would be enough to upset the odds was their 26-0 win in 1877. Their record Away win was in 1954 against Bury in the 2nd division. It was 6-0. Not nearly enough. Relax.
We were always going to get off to a bad start given the schedule and having to adjust to the Premier League. Plus not having Boruc to save us. In retrospect, I think only Adkins could have kept the team going through that difficult early part of the season. I don't know if there are very many managers who do as good a job as him shrugging off adversity. Even if Pochettino had the same skills, he wouldn't have been around long enough for his message to be effective. OTOH, it turns out we ended up needing big wins against some teams I don't think we would have beaten with Adkins. At the time, I thought we would have been safe under NA anyway, but I didn't anticipate so many of the bottom teams turning things around like they have. All conjecture really, but I still feel like if we had't had this exact combination of coaches and timing of change we might not have made it.
