Mark's System Trial

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M

markpattern

Member
Jan 21, 2014
149
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16
Spain
LINGFIELD 1.00 - MR DAVID - A ONLY

LINGFIELD 2.00 - GLOBAL EXPLORER - A OR B

CATTERICK 2.45 - VICE ET VERTU - A OR C

LINGFIELD 3.45 - SWIVEL - A ONLY

I use a method of placing the bet on 3 basis - A BET, B BET and C BET. I have already selected the horse. I am explaining these rules which I use so to give the system a realistic chance.

A BET. This is our selection to be the favourite only. 0.75 point gap minimum to the 2nd favourite. If only 5 runners, only 0.50 point gap to the 2nd Favourite.
However, if the betting shows our selection is 5/2 or bigger then the 2nd favourite has to be only 0.50 gap. ie, 5/2 fav and 3/1 2nd fav. I will let you know if only 5 runners
otherwise 0.75 gap. This is the most common bet I use.

B BET. This bet is when our selection is the 2nd favourite. Up to 3/1, the gap to the favourite must be 0.25 or shorter. If the favourite is 3/1 then our selection can only be 10/3 or if
The favourite is 10/3 the ours must be 7/2. 7/2 is the maximum this bet can be if the favourite is 10/3. This bet occurs only a few times per month.

C BET. Again this is the 2nd favourite to a maximum of 2/1. The favourite can be as short as 8/11 and our selection can be any price from evens to 2/1. This bet type may only occur
a couple of times per month.

So, for example today, the 2.45 - Vice Et vertu, if favourite, A Bet, then needs to be a min of evens and a maximum of 4/1. The 2nd fav needs to be 0.75 bigger or if ours being 5/2 or bigger then the second favourite now only needs to be 0.50 bigger. However, if ours is the 2nd Fav, C Bet, then if the favourite is 4/5 ours can be from evens to a maximum of 2/1.

The bets I can put up early doors only represent around 40% of the selections I make, so the additional selections I will post on this thread about 5 mins before the off but the same A, B & C rules apply. Please let me know if you need more explanation of bet types. Fingers crossed.

Thank you for all the comments yesturday.
 
Can't get clearer than that .......... I think.

Mark may I ask just that you can clarify that you have joined the forum to simply engage with other racing fans and that you are not seeking to offer a system for money to anyone of the forum now or in the future? You obviously can appreciate from some of the posts yesterday that it is understandably viewed that way by some due to others who have been and gone over the time. You have been given a chance as you approached sincerely and without the usual get rich quick bluff and bluster they usually do. I like most have taken the view that you are here just to join in and are looking to gain some pleasure and satisfaction by proofing your own system that you believe in to an audience of fellow racing fans and punters. Am I correct?

Good luck with your selections today.

Except for Global explorer that is.
 
Thanks mate. One point I did miss is if watching from Betfair, this can differ from the actual SP I have based all this on, I use coral.co.uk and base the bet selection from the odds they show just prior to the off. Yesturday for example, and it does not happen very often, I tipped Bennys Mist which was a B Bet. On the off the odds showed 9/4 - 5/2. Bennys Mist won and the RUK radio channel even called the result 9/4 - 5/2 and then changed it some moments later apologising for the info. I would have been on Bennys Mist. However, this has not been counted as a bet.
 
Well my attempt to predict today's selections wasn't too clever was it. 3 selections and just one right. Not only that there are 4 selections and also in one race I got the wrong horse <doh>. I chose those races where there was more than one last time out winner but just one of them carrying a penalty, the latter being the selection. However, in 2.00 your selection didn't win last time out, but I note it was a BF last time out. Haven't a clue how you arrived at Mr David and Vice Et Vertu but the latter is one I have mentioned in the Daily Thread so that's one that can't win <laugh>
 
Cor blimey, this has been made Complicated with a capital &#8216;C&#8217; and its given me a headache just reading the instructions. Think I need a lay down in the sick bay for half an hour now. The very best of luck with today&#8217;s horses though.

Talking of systems I see that there is a runner from the one that most forum members swear by at Kempers Park this afternoon in 4.05 event. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...
 
Hi Bluesky, you are correct in that I am here to join in. The story behind all this is that my father for over 50 years watched and loved racing. He was never a gambler as nor am I. For all these years he kept records of everything he looked at and being a numbers man, he always considered that patterns happen in racing. 5 years ago I was lucky enough to sell a development in Morocco, we live in Marbella, and take some time away. When we left for Spain 13 years ago, my Dad left in the bank a steel case with all his private stuff and collectables he wanted to keep safe. I went over to the UK collected the case and brought it back.

Now, only half an hour after leaving his house he rang me at my house to come straight back. What he had done is stored all the info he had kept in the box which made incredible reading. From this we spent thousends of hours testing the formulas he had based selections on. With archive results going back years on say ladbrokes, we could apply and re-apply the formulas. Once this had been achieved, 6 months of driving my wife mad, no beach for me today!, we then applied this to real time live racing. We even designed our own stake plan which i have not shared here but is a means to scale loss in to profit.

We started this in October 2009 applying it to live racing. Now, not being a gambler, we have sat with this everyday, Monday to Friday daytime only racing, too much to cover evenings and weekends, and turn up a consistent 400+ selections per year.

Not being a gambler as said, what we have managed to do over the 4 years is identify risky distances, bad goings, risky weights in a handicap etc etc. We have lots of exclusions. So as of now, the end of 2013 was a milestone for us, i joined the forum to apply the selections we have, I hear everyday that no system exists, it does and will prove it.

From all said here, I know it will make a lot of money, if I told you than only 2 weeks ago someone told me how betfair works I would have considered them as being the same as Ladbrokes, William Hill which we in the early days as part of our testing had accounts with them. By the time we were making money they would not let us even get 10 quid on a selection so that was that. So, its not the selections that were the problem, for me it would always be impossable to place any worth while size bet. Its just for fun but its like proving to ourselves that the results are what they are.
 
Wow, if you thought the UK was dodgy at times, we just read headline news here, 5 people died last week of Swine Flu where 16 have already died and 168 known cases all local to us. The head of health care just resigned as of now some saying for keeping it quiet.
 
What a shame Swivel, just one click away from a bet, So just the one winner this week, +1.75. Back on Monday, gotta go and get a Swine Flu jab somewhere quick. I dont do weekends or evenings, kids, wife etc etc, but if I were Lexi Hero 8pm Wolves. Looks a belting bet within rules.
 
Southwell 1.10 - Royal Riviera (A BET)

kempton 1.30 - Pabusar (A BET)

Kempton 2.00 - Cayuga (B BET)

Wolverhampton 4.10 - Wilhana (A BET)
 
Cayuga is in the 4 00K -against MOG selection--i doubt royal riviera will make the 'cut'--pabusar and wilhana seem to be underachiever/ungenuine types-so today mark you are chancing your arm imo--it could end up none of them 'backed'--all good though, as this a test of your system-to find 'genuine' favs. Good luck (apart from Cayuga)
 
Hi, Not with it, birthday yesturday, born on the 2nd and one day later put down the 4th!! Sorry, CAYUGA Kempton 4pm.

What does "Unsubscride" from Bostonbob mean???
 
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