Ok... Since its quiet... My observations so far. 1) obi's QT question is suspicious. 2) nev's initial self vote was probably a joke but self votes sometimes used to befuddle the votes allows a late stealth vote. He quickly changed so prob nothing. 3) Mikey put obi out in lead early when few votes cast. (looking for easy lynch?) 4) AFC, Valley, Tobes all piled on Obi early. 5) interesting theory I'm waiting until tomorrow (at earliest) to share.
I think one runaway target tells us little for day 2. If runaway target is good we're at square one. (with one less town). If runaway target is bad... Great but who do we go on for day 2. I'm not necessarily saying it should be a tie, but 2 or 3 targets tells us more for day 2, and makes it more tempting for bad guys to try and save their teammate.
So theories? 13 or 14 people, in a simple game this would be 3 or 4 person mafia. Unknown Evil usually errs to the lower number because town at disadvantage. If one bad team could be 3 with one recruit. Alternatively, if multiple bad teams they could have 3 or members each (since bad teams would take out each other the ratio of town needs to be higher). IBWT said this was a simple game so I don't think there will be many surprise new roles we're not familiar with. I'm guessing either one mafia team with 3 bad guys (rising to 4 with recruitment maybe) or two mafia teams of 3 each. To fit in a week there is probably a SK out there too to help bring numbers down.
Don't think he did! Agreed we need to be lining up 2 or 3 candidates. Thing I've found most interesting so far is Nev's VT claim.
Almost certainly a bluff but if he had an important town role he might bluff to say he was vanilla too. The tenuous reason I voted for him was a) obi was beginning to get a lead and except under specific circumstances it's never a good idea for one person to be way out in front, especially day one... Nev already had a vote so looked a good candidate to even it up. b) his claim to vote for you because "you played well". Good players help town usually. Yes playing well helps mafia too but less important for mafia than town. Mafia just need to avoid suspicion to win.
Read back - I said he was good last week as in good v evil. I didn't vote for him because he played well
I wasn't sure what he meant by vt so looked back and saw you claim to be Vanilla Townie and so inferred that's what he meant.
Lynchee - Lyncher 4. Obi - Style, afc, valley, tobes 1. Valley - Obi 2. Nev - Mikey, milk 1. Mikey - Nev 1. Lucaaas - Astro No change from last update. Yet to vote: ACS, Lucaaas, bobbyd, magic
The most likely to assassinate is the SK who is probably unlimited. The 2nd most likely is a town assassin, who tends to be someone who thinks they have a read and just goes with it. The mafia are the most likely to have restricted kills and will put some thought into their target so might wait.
