Right now no one needs to do anything. We need to see Magic and danilo doing or not doing the obvious and sensible thing. Anyone changing things before that has an agenda.
Well yeah, a coin toss is just so random, and favours the mafia because there are more townies, so theres more chance one of us will go and the mafia and KGB will just be pissing themselves at us throwing accusations at each other, like you have just done with me
yeah probably.... if it is a 5 way coin toss then the maths would suggest that there is a very good chance of one mafia being in there. 5 shots and a 6/15 change of mafia would have to be what 9/15 x 8/14 x 7/13 x 6/12 x 5/11 chance each time of hitting innocent... thats 4.1% that all are innocent.... lets call this our first cut.. a best guess and now what do we do. I do not subscribe one bit to now we've one it it shouldnt change. rather we've 5 names up. what next? If theres a suspect then fine go change it. See what happens. there are 6 hours to go. jsut cos its conveniently ties now doesn't mean it can't change. Oh and yes I'm right now zero votes. am i too helpful... sure its my nature you guys are on 3 votes and i could shut up and survive tonight. but i could be assassinated tonight as well....
No it doesn't. A coin toss is FAIR and favours the townspeople. The non-innocents have information who is who so using their information to string someone up favours them.
i know you are retraction = deffo guilt for the record I'm sure hash and sky will change thier votes. they are just playing too.
To be fair the mafia and KGB only have slightly more info than the Freemasons do who are on the towns side. Since there are three on each bad team and two on the innocent team. I'm still unsure what method is the best so early in the game..
hmmmm.... none of your team up for the vote then I still say theres nothing suspcious in changing it. especially not afcftw voting differently
Freemasons know 1 out of 8 other people on their side. Bad guys know 2 out of 2 other people on their side.
How does it favour the townspeople, there are 9 of us and 6 badguys? So surely doing it randomly means we have a 66.6% of getting an innocent and a 33.33% chance of killing a baddie? Admittedly math isn't my strong suit, but still......
Yeh so mafia have no idea who 12 people are, Freemasons have no idea who 13 people are. The benefit being mafia know they want to kill everyone else I suppose.
Change based on what? YOUR team is in the vote? Right now an innocent knows **** all so has zero reason to change it. The current set up gives us the opportunity to get information based on whether Magic and danilo behave in a senible or stupid way. So you want to throw away the only legitimate opportunity for information for innocents? Based on...?
And if they behave sensibly and the coin toss goes 5 ways and we lynch a townie...what have we learnt? The square root of **** all.
I agree a coin toss at least puts more than one in danger. 6/16 = 40% chance of randomly selecting a mafia. if the choice was random and not started purely by some interference. If 2 people are up that chance in creases but yes the coin toss then halves it. I think there has to be an element of luck about day one. Its not so much about the isolated day one as it is trying to get that one or even two mafia in the mix and then maybe on day 2 or 3 the pattern of votes might become clear. I think we are not so much looking for a coin toss as some club for later on in the game. for example just maybe some mafia team will be already voting a way that has been discussed and we just don't see it. I do think if we are here at 6pm and everyone's just sitting back I'd be thinking.... right now i actually have two things i'm waiting to see both might be silly on my part to be waiting for but I am curious.
Because if we all voted for 1 person each we'd all be EQUALLY at risk. The less people involved in the coinflip the more the mafia/kgb can use their information to make the vote UNEQUAL in their own favour.
just saying.... at least you sound more like astro now i don't think putting words in danilo and magics mouths on how they have to vote really puts them in a good position. sure they really can take the easy option now you've said it too.... it'll only give info on those two players and honestly one is in canada and won't be on til later and magic... well he could be at work.. i dunno.... but i assume when they come on they'll vote whatever they vote irresepctive of what you say. I do honestly think that if afcftw changes his vote to put someone ahead of himself in the vote its not that guilty looking either... now... if you were in his shoes would you take the potential 3/4/5 way coin toss or woudl you get out of it? anyway either way is better than last game votes for RHC. I do feel this time we might get some info...
This is where I have to concede I guess. I dont have one. I just want to avoid another day 1 like in the last game where RHC got lynched for no reason and it put us on the back foot from Day 1 onwards.
