Not quite true, although I see the argument. It seems reasonable speculation that WFC can beat blackpool, and Cardiff lose to Leicester - using current form, or long term form. Then, if WFC beat Cardiff, (again not unreasonable, judging by the performance in Cardiff, WFC down to 9 men and Cardiff only scraped home. Our disciplinary record has improved enormously) we are 'ahead' with Cardiff having a game in hand. If Cardiff lose the 'game in hand', and we match each other over remaining 8 games, bingo. We can have as many draws as Cardiff. So, we have assumed that cardiff lose 3 of remaining 11, we win 2 - incl. against cardiff, and we are matched on others. also, we are 1/2 point ahead on goal difference. I'm not saying this will happen - in fact almost everyone at WFC is waiting for a dip, or worse - getting Manager of Month. But, just to reinforce the argument, since losing to hull in early december, EVERY disappointment for WFC has been followed by a strong recovery. We now regard drawing at wolves as a disappointment - naturally, as Cardiff won there! All to play for - what fun!
I love it when posters start using maths to convince themselves and then introduce about 10 "ifs" into the discussion. Of course anything is possible, and the only way we'd be up at this point is by calling off the rest of the season and finish it now. On the other hand, IF you lost against Blackpool, and IF we just managed to beat Leicester, and then IF you went Hull and beat them, and then IF you beat Cardiff ....................it goes on and on. I'll call it as I see it. We are 5 points clear with a game in hand. Given the way we are playing, and with Fraizer Campbell on board now giving us a striker who can score instead of relying on the midfield and defence to get the goals, the teams behind us have it all to do. That's of course not saying you, Hull, Palace or even Leicester can't do it.
The lead we have in points does not matter as even 1 point will be enough. Also we do not have to rely on ifs and buts as winning our own games will be enough. Also if we do not win but draw the 3 points would only become 2 points for the chasing team. We have not won promotion so have to hope we do as much as the other teams. Leading for this length of time becomes a strain, how easy is it for you to hold your second spot against Hull. However as you are second you no longer pose any threat to us as we cannot take both auto places. Hull and Palace are the threat. So right now given a choice for you to win and Hull to lose we want Hull to lose ahead of you. In a strange way the team in second becomes our ally against the other two teams. jck
Cardiff will be Champions unless they chuck it away - see, no "ifs" there at all. As I said elsewhere you only have to have the form of bottom club Bristol City to get to 82 points - that alone would probably get you second place so you are all but there. It is hard to believe you would go on that sort of run though and an extra 4 or 5 points from those 11 games makes you Champions "UNLESS" ( not if) Watford or Hull do really well - possible but towards the end of the season with a lot to play for bothat the top and at the bottom it gets more difficult to "guarantee" any wins. On our recent form we are heading to a points total of perhaps 88 give or take one, Hull more like 85. It could be close but if I were spread betting I would have you winning the Championship by 5 points clear
Any team that dont win their own games will be out of it but we dont need to desperately hope other teams lose. Our points total depend on ourselves while all the rest have to win and then hope we lose. There are teams hoping a few teams above them lose just to get into the playoffs. All I can see is "If Cardiff lose" We could lose the next four then win the last seven and still finish top. One game will not decide it for us, for many teams one loss could cost them. jck
Both Watford and Hull are able to say that they will certainly get automatic promotion if they win all their matches - just like Cardiff - but of course as we are all playing each other we cannot all win them all
you miss the point. I was responding to your observation that we have to WIN our games. I was trying to suggest that draws are ok, in the perfectly reasonable circumstances of this Saturday turning out as I expect, and WFC beating Cardiff at vicarage road. Of course, this would all be irrelevant if Cardiff weren't falling off a cliff. 7 points from last 5 games! However, just to cheer you up, I've done a simple calculation based on the run-in that top 4 clubs have, using the oppositions league position as a measure of difficulty. You will be delighted to learn I am sure that in terms of INCREASING difficulty it runs... Palarse Hull WFC Cardiff The variations aren't much - varying from an average of 11th place (Cardiff) to nearly 15th (Palarse). Just in case that doesn't satisfy you, I did it again, using the different league positions of each opposition, based on their home record (where the top 4 team is away), and their away record based etc etc. The order is the same, although WFC have is slightly harder than Cardiff. If the results relect the order of difficulty, it is going to be mighty close at the end - just when Hull are home to Cardiff. Cheers
Yeah, cheers to you too Mr Bodbo. I wasn't missing your point at all. When I said you need to win your games rather than drawing them to have a realistic chance of overtaking Cardiff, I didn't require mathematical proof that I was actually wrong in assuming that. I'll put it another way. The fact remains that in the general scheme of things, you need to win more games than Cardiff need in the run in to overhaul us. Of course if we lose all our games, you needn't win any at all - just draw 7 of them and you could lose the rest. Mind you, if we win as many as you - goodnight Irene. (You'll probably prove now that that depends on the number of draws we each get ) As far as the "degree of difficulty" calculations are concerned, this is not highboard diving my friend. When you jump off the 6 metre platform, you know exactly what you have to do - there are no variables and it's up to you. This is Championship football we're talking about here, and it's something of a different animal. Any one in this division can stick one up another (no Tom Daly jokes please) and can produce a totally unexpected turn of events that makes a mockery of table positions. I would agree that some of the promotion contenders seem to have "easier" run ins than others, but to base final point totals on that premise might be an academic exercise too far. Cheers matey - have a good weekend (but not too good )
I would rather be in Cardiff's position than ours. I would, however, still be worrying as much as I am now.
I'd rather have our form & position than Cardiffs form and position. At the top, form counts as teams are more likely to win. At the bottom, points/position counts as teams are more likely to lose (unless you are peterboro - a total random loose cannon. Might be our easiest or our worst run-in fixture). In terms of nerves & worry, our form (and things like GFZ's changes to recover the situation against Sheff Wed) gives me more comfort than Cardiffs 7 points from 5 with Leicester to play on Tuesday. Absolutely do not worry - it's been already a far far better season than we could havf imagined - esp. when you think we were 18th !
That made a bit of a **** up of your calculations. Put the slide rule down pal - this is football, not maths. Well at least a draw would have been better than a loss - looks like you didn't have a column in your ledger for zero points. Unlike forum chat, the results are decided on the pitch. Taxi for Bodbo!!
