Interesting piece in the Times today about how many goals we have scored from outside the box recently. Why Liverpool score so many goals from outside the box Long-range attempts have been in decline in the Premier League for years but this season Jürgen Klopp’s side have not been afraid to try their luck from distance Is there a more satisfying sight in football? For lovers of the beautiful game a long-range strike, arced or arrowed into a billowing net, induces an unparalleled detonation of joy. In that regard, Liverpool’s thrilling 4-3 win against Fulham at Anfield on Sunday provided a feast for the senses, but, at the same time, almost felt like something from a bygone era. In many ways, it was. Long-range shots have been in decline for years. Twenty years ago, about 45 per cent of shots in the Premier League came from outside the box. This season, that figure has dropped below 33 per cent. The trend can largely be attributed to the rise of expected goals (xG) — data which measures the quality of every goalscoring chance — which has resulted in more informed coaching and on-field decision-making. Liverpool, before this season, were trending the same way. Between Jürgen Klopp’s appointment as manager in October 2015 and the end of last season, the share of Liverpool’s shots that came from outside the box had been in decline; the share of Liverpool’s goals that were scored from outside the box had dropped; and the average distance Liverpool shot from had fallen. Shooting from range Liverpool's Premier League shot locations last season compared with the current season Data filtered from the 18-yard box and blue circles indicate goals This season, however, they have unexpectedly bucked that trend. Liverpool’s percentage of shots from outside the box has leapt from 28 to 39 per cent; their percentage of goals from outside the box has climbed from 11 to 17 per cent; and the average distance of their shots from 16 to 18 yards. In total, Liverpool have taken 99 shots from outside the box this season, which is 18 more than the second-most adventurous side, Tottenham Hotspur. The five goals Liverpool have scored from outside the box (equalled only by Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa) already matches the number that Klopp’s Champions League-winning team — arguably the apex of his Anfield epoch — scored in the league during the whole of 2018-19. For at least a decade, long-range shooting had almost become associated with poor attacking play. After all, it’s a pretty inefficient way of trying to score. Yet this season only the Premier League’s worst team, Sheffield United, are shooting from further out than Liverpool, who are taking aim from the same distance, on average, as 14th-placed Fulham. So has Klopp suddenly allowed his players to let rip? And if so, why? When Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Díaz, Cody Gakpo, Diogo Jota, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott and Darwin Núñez are all averaging more shots per 90 minutes from outside the box this season compared with last, the answer to that first question is pretty clear. When assessing why, several reasons come to mind. What is the primary challenge the Premier League’s elite now face most weekends? More often that not, it is breaking down well-drilled, compact, low defensive blocks. Pulling and stretching their shape, searching and probing for openings. Lining up shots from around the penalty area is another way of luring out defenders and blockers. Klopp, who famously ushered “heavy-metal football” into the game’s lexicon, has never been averse to a bit of organised chaos. Plus, shots can create counterpressing opportunities, too. Then there’s the profile of Liverpool’s midfield, which of course looks very different to last season. Alexander-Arnold, settling into his inverted full-back/midfield role, is taking up more central positions higher up the pitch — areas that allow him to take aim at goal more frequently. Neither his majestic free kick on Sunday (awarded as a Bernd Leno own goal) nor his 88th-minute winner (scored from just inside the 18-yard line) were classified as goals from outside the box, but Alexander-Arnold’s right foot is a weapon that is being used differently this season. Alexis Mac Allister, who joined from Brighton for £35 million in the summer, has taken only seven shots this season, but from an average distance of 29 yards. Perhaps, given that the Argentina midfielder is capable of scoring goals like that thunderous strike we saw against Fulham on Sunday, Klopp is willing to grant the World Cup winner the licence to try. Undoubtedly, however, the main protagonist in this story is Dominik Szoboszlai, the £60 million signing from RB Leipzig. The 23-year-old has unleashed 24 of his 28 shots from outside the box this season — only Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has taken as many. Yet even if Szoboszlai (who scored ten goals in all competitions for the German club last season) has only been successful with one — a fine strike in Liverpool’s 3-0 win against Villa in September — there are by-products from Liverpool’s new-found willingness to shoot from further out. Take, for example, Liverpool’s third goal in a 3-1 win against Bournemouth at Anfield in August. With the visiting team defending their penalty area, Díaz swept a pass out wide to Alexander-Arnold — stretching Bournemouth’s midfield block — who popped a first-time pass inside to a pocket of space for Szoboszlai to run on to. The Liverpool midfielder’s strike deflected off Philip Billing, wrong-footing the goalkeeper, Neto, who palmed the ball into the six-yard box. The advancing Jota was on hand to apply the simplest of finishes. Now that Klopp has more players who can strike the ball from distance, it stands to reason that he would attempt to create space for them to do so. Perhaps, though, something in Klopp’s vision for “Liverpool 2.0”, as he labelled this refreshed and reinvigorated young squad, is rooted in a much simpler desire: to throw off the shackles, channel an inner Roy of the Rovers, and let fly.
So for all our defensive frailty and supposedly being exposed at RB, we have the joint best (with Arsenal) defensive record in the league with 14 goals against in 15 games. Only City have scored more than us, leading to us having the best GD in the league. That defensive record will be tested further with Matip out. When is Robertson due back?
end of January? I'm really not too sure. there was a long article about this on thisisanfield https://www.thisisanfield.com/2023/...-surgery-details-and-likely-return-explained/ this was pure speculation on the extend of injury and recovery time. If you work from the date of the op and such then 3 months puts us at the end of january. Who knows. A lot of football between then and now.
Def helps having the best keeper in the world though. Sorry, almost best but behind a random Moroccan guy and Onana who are superior to him.
End of block 4 time: 1. Points per Game Trend - nobody in the league is on for 90 points yet as the half way point starts to approach. 2. Block performance over 5 years. 4 blocks in and while this season doesn't match up to our massive 18/19, 19/20 seasons its not far off our near quad season so far. The blue line is a 5 year average so we are mostly above average 3. Blocks of 4: The spurs debacle and brighton draw is block 2. 4. Goals for and against per block - Goals scored per block is 9 every time. Goals conceded is the variable. 3 v Fulham the outlier.
Now the bottom half: Games played 9 Goals scored 23 Goal conceded 7 Games won 8 Games drawn 1 Games lost 0 Win ratio 89% Draw ratio 11% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.56 Goals conceded per game 0.78 Nearly perfect with Luton away the only blemish. The top half Games played 7 Goals scored 13 Goal conceded 9 Games won 3 Games drawn 3 Games lost 1 Win ratio 43% Draw ratio 43% Loss ratio 14% Goals per game 1.86 Goals conceded per game 1.3 The goals against are the issue. We now move form a period of lower half games into our top 10 rivals. Utd and arsenal. The top 7 then: These highlight why we are top, we've played more v the rest. the next block is season defining Manchester United (h) Arsenal (h) Burnley (a) Newcastle United (h) The Goals against stat after playing those three key home massive games will tell a lot.
19/20 Matchday 16 LFC points 46 21/22 Matchday 16 Man city points 38 LFC 37 23/23 Matchday 16 LFC points 37. Its really setting up the rest of the season and it could be anyones. beleif will be key here. Sit down and say we are in this and everyone needs it up it a notch in focus
Another block chalked off 8/12 points is top 4 form but not title form. 3 top 7 rivals played in it though. The point trend suggest that we are doing well but have a lot of work to do. A run of 10 wins in a row might turn this into a title race but a poor run of results could put us in 4th place trouble Blocks Historical block performance Bottom half performance: If we keep this trend going (there's another 10 games in this lot then thats 28 more points) Games played 10 Goals scored 25 Goal conceded 7 Games won 9 Games drawn 1 Games lost 0 Win ratio 90% Draw ratio 10% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.50 Goals conceded per game 0.70 Top half performance: we likely need to improve on this a bit but only have 8 more games, including the massive home tie with city. Games played 10 Goals scored 18 Goal conceded 12 Games won 4 Games drawn 5 Games lost 1 Win ratio 40% Draw ratio 50% Loss ratio 10% Goals per game 1.80 Goals conceded per game 1.2 Super league Scum: We are the only real movers by climbing up to 2nd in this. The table against the non "top 7 super league scum club" Again we are nearly perfect with just brighton and luton draws, the bottom 4 teams in this table are all struggling against sides who don't come out to play as much. 4, 5 and 6 losses out of 14 games played? We think we've an issue with teams with low block defences? Our next block of 4 is spread out in time but its the time of year where either we falter or kick on. A.F.C. Bournemouth (a) Chelsea (h) Arsenal (a) Burnley (h) Its a split of (barely) two top half sides and 2 bottom half sides. 10/12 points here would set us up nicely. Simply must perform v Burnley and Bournemouth but we owe chelsea one big time. We ought to be looking out towards the final run in and seeing Fulham (a) West Ham United (a) Tottenham Hotspur (h) Aston Villa (a) Wolverhampton (h) that's quite an interesting last 5 games ins't it? 3 of them should be playing for something.
45 Liverpool 44 43 42 Villa 41 40 Man City & Arsenal 39 Spurs 38 37 36 35 34 33 West Ham 32 31 Man Utd 30 Brighton 29 Newcastle 28 Chelsea & Wolves 27 26 25 Ballmouth 24 Fulham 23 22 21 Palace 20 Forest 19 Brentford 18 17 16 Everton* 15 Luton 14 13 12 11 Burnley 10 09 Sheff Utd Bold = played nineteen Non-bold = played twenty
I love this type of table. the praise being heaped on Bournemouth and fulham for a little bit of form is amazing. Take 2 results off either and they are right there with the managers under pressure group of palace, Brentford and forest (who sacked already) the cluster of 6 meh clubs in the "top half" also has little to separate it. West ham being lauded but actually they are in there around the awful form of Chelsea etc
A quick update in terms of where we are at: The trend of points now shows We are headed for about 87 points but the Dotted line we have fallen onto is season 2021/22 which was also an effort at a few cups. For those who might be interested form game wee 26 onwards in 2021/22 we won 12 and drew 1 game on the run in. Block Performance: this tells us we are well on for top 4 but are falling short of the line for champions. the odd draw or loss here and there. You need 7 or th 9 to be up there to do it but again there's time if we can run on unbelievable form. Historical block Performance Again this probably points to this season not being a city classic as we are top but its just interesting to see how the seaons fits neatly between absolutely smashing everyone and just being 4th or 5th. The prem is more competitive. Form V Bottom Half Games played 12 Goals scored 32 Goal conceded 9 Games won 11 Games drawn 1 Games lost 0 Win ratio 92% Draw ratio 8% Loss ratio 0% Goals per game 2.67 Goals conceded per game 0.75 Form V Top half Games played 12 Goals scored 23 Goal conceded 16 Games won 5 Games drawn 5 Games lost 2 Win ratio 42% Draw ratio 42% Loss ratio 17% Goals per game 1.92 Goals conceded per game 1.3 This is imo where the title is won and lost. We are scoring plenty but we are leaking goals against the little bit better teams. Only one or two sides have won more than us in the top half though. Its competitive out there. Super league Scum table Scum v the Rest: These tables might give a little bit of hope but remember villa are not included and should be considered a major threat. We are neck and neck with city with them having played a game less overall and that game less will wash out this month. It is agaisnt a lower half team. LFC however have 3 top 6 games left, of which 2 arre at home. City have 4 of which 2 are at home. Spurs and LFC away, Utd and Arsenal at home. LFC have 7 bottom half games to go Tirpr to goodison, and craven cottage included/ LFC have 6 top half games. Trips to Utd, west ham and villa. Overall If LFC dropped EVERYTHING after the city game and focused only on this league then as long as we are ahead we should be capable of grinding along. But football doens't work like that. We have a lot of other games to play too.
Our Home form: Played 12 Won 10 Draw 2 Lost 0 Goals scored 33 Goals Conceded 10 Points 32 goals per game: 2.75. goals conceded per game 0.83 Our away form: Played 13 Won 7 Draw 4 Lost 2 Goals scored 26 Goals Conceded 14 Points 25 goals per game: 2.0 goals conceded per game 1.07 Fortress Anfield will be crucial in every competition.
in both tables the Chelsea figures need revising as the number of results don't match the number of displayed games played .
