LFC Stats and Analytics

We actually sticking to PL this time then?

 

John barnes played in the prem.

 

Hasn't kept a clean sheet this season though.

 

The below table shows the pressing efficiency (pressing successes / pressing total).

Mane and Salah are still working very hard and efficiency but there is a significant drop off in the other key areas:

please log in to view this image

 

Really good thread ...

 

You don't need to be dribbled past if you dive in early like he did twicw vs Atletico...

 

Here are some key snippets:

- Naby Keita is dribbled past least times per 90 of all our midfielders (0.98). This despite also making the most tackles by some distance w/3.95 (Thiago 2nd w/2.56 p90).

- Naby averages 4 tackles per dribbled past. Thiago is the only other midfielder above 1.5. Not bad for a lazy, tactically inept, weak off the ball, defensive liability.

--------------------------------------

Summary - Thiago and Naby are really good footballers but their defensive work often goes unnoticed.

 

Don't tell them that Jimmy, it destroys their narrative

 

Agreed. But both are sick notes so we have a big issue.

Keita would suit klopp like the arse on a bucket but the poor falls just cannot stay fit.

Thiago is absolutely ideal for control and progressive midfield play. But again no fitness.

They are head and shoulders over the other options but that's no use if they are not available to play.

 

Still miss Fabinho more

 

I contended we will end up 4th on the west ham thread. Here are the reasons why:

bottom half Teams
Games played 6
Goals scored 19
Goal conceded 3
Games won 5
Games drawn 1
Games lost 0
Win ratio 83%
Draw ratio 17%
Loss ratio 0%
Goals per game 3.166667
Goals conceded per game 0.5

top half teams:
Games played 5
Goals scored 12
Goal conceded 8
Games won 1
Games drawn 3
Games lost 1
Win ratio 20%
Draw ratio 60%
Loss ratio 20%
Goals per game 2.4
Goals conceded per game 1.6

The difference between the two groups is now stark

My top half teas are:
Chelsea
City
Man utd (yeah still lol)
Brighton
West ham
Arsenal
Everton
Spurs
Leicester
And of course us.

If we were to continue this form we would get 76 points.

that is there or thereabouts the 4th spot. It could be 3rd sure but the point is perfectly valid and if all people can do is argue about 3rd or 4th then it is actually validated as we are not in a title race like this.


We have already conceded as many goals as the prior block and we have conceded them to brighton and west ham off very average positions and defending.

We play arsenal to round out this block of 4 games.

I would already be thinking about all in to the CL and what to do to improve this team balance as defensively its not there. the generla lack of will to get out and block a cross or to track a run is seriously lacking. Our tactics is to pile on and when we lose it pile on as well leaving 2 mean plus the keeper to hope to stop the counter. Then we simply shrug and say well i ran forward so i get now to jog back and its the second or third phase where the goals come.

If we won the two games v brighton and west ham and lost to utd it would actually be better for our season LOL. it smackes of 7-0 v palace.

 

I find it interesting that no team is currently on target to break 90 pts this season. Is this a sign that the league is more competitive or that teams like ourselves and City are not as good as we were?

 

I would say the teams are not as good personally. City certainly are not as good offensively. The ly improve defensively with Diaz etc but nobody should be scared of city without silva and aguero.

Chelsea are improved 100%

We are fairly **** tbh and wide open.

But for sure some sides are doing well and there is bit of decent depth to the top 10 with brighton coming in etc.

We will get 70+ but wont challenge chelsea. Our run in is much harder and we are falling behind now.

 

Tbf - the City and Liverpool sides between 2017-2020 were absolutely incredible. Consistent 90+ point finishes is remarkable and was always going to be unsustainable.

Whilst we aren't; at that level, we're still a very good side and we're performing to a very high level. City and LFC still have the highest xG differentials which implies that we're creating the most and conceding the least. Chelsea are top but they outperforming their xG at unsustainable levels which implies that they are in a hot streak / very lucky.

We just need to iron out our midfield issues and we'll be back up there. We managed to put a a nice run at the end of the last season which was against all odds and a lot of that was driven by having Mo leading the attack, Fabinho and Thiago dictating the midfield and Trent providing that creativity at the back.

 

I dunno others have sustained it longer in spain and germany and italy.

I get the feeling city have made a few bad calls.

Grealish 100mil - this is not a city buy. the guy is already 26 and the fee is ridiculous and he is neither that quick not that good.
compare to KdB, silva and ageuro - prime city buys that follow the money ball game .23/24 at time of buy and are ready to go ad appreciate in value and perform.

Over the past 4 years say

city lose komany did not replace him and fell apart. Buy diaz after 12 months and he was 23 (perfect moneyball move but they pay massive fees)
City lose Silva and simply don't replace but bring foden though. thats good business imo
City lose sane and buy torres. is that a drop in class? no not really
City lose Fernandinho to age and buy rodri. is he as good? No way. he doesn't want to do the hard dirty work that fernandinho could do all day every day so city are softer as a result
City lose aguero and fail to buy a replacement.


We are good side if we could keep anyone fit. its really frustrating after a really good preseason to see so many injuries but perhaps we went too hard too qucik with a short 4 week preseason? in the end though bar firmino we are seeing keita and thiago as the usual sick notes so can't exactly be shocked can we?

There's a misbalance somewhere in that side thats not explainable by wijnaldum going and doing one. there is more at play with this trent drifting in to the middle and running about anywhere he feels like. theres zero tracking and i feel we need to take a long hard look at what we are doing.

At this point i'd say go three at the back and let trent **** about the place all he likes if thats the tactic. get a good du at the centre in fabinho and thiago and let them at it. Gomez rcb and lets see if we can stem the tide of goals.

none of this will happen of course. We are wedded to 433 til klopp goes and it aint changing, so i want trent to be a full back again and stop dicking about running off wher ehe likes leaving the RCB totally open.

 

just to expand on why i think LFC are boned


you'll note that as people have pointed out arsenal have played nobody but they have got their points on the board after a rank start

however look at city. have played 2 less than us against the non super league teams but are a point ahead overall. that says to me we are in big trouble.


city already have half the top 6 games done and dusted.

Our run in is harder than their by average position an more big games so IMO we've really struggled in the CL group weeks and are showning up a lot of injuries etc.

 

please log in to view this image

please log in to view this image

please log in to view this image

 

No real concerns in open play.
Not as good as 18/19 but an improvement on last 2 years.
But on Set Plays we are conceding 1 more 20% chance per match. That's a big deal. Our opponents aren't hot in any way, we're just conceding too much.

 

Don't agree mate. you've posted that lads comment there and hes off the mark.

Its clear we are getting walked through in the midfield and conceding a lot of one on ones. Alisson is just keeping a lot of them out. the fact is theres a larger Xg whatever type of chance so peopel are getting better changes form open play.

the set play stuff is very weak for sure but lets call a spade a spade here. Sides can walk through us.

I have the say the set piece stuff has clear weaknesses to exploit. I presume the brentford pump it at the back stick stuff is included in set play as they targeted Trent who fails to just get up. Mane looke dlike he was picking up zouma last weekend.

We need to be asking ourselves about what happens without fabinho in the side and why the CBs are getting draw out of their zonal heading spots.

A midfield of Henderson, milner, keita, jones, elliott or ox offers ZERO help in a set piece situation. A few taller mean would probably help but what can you do.

 

We're missing Wijnaldum. He was always available for selection and is a constant 7/10 performer.