The thing is I’m not sure a striker would have made a difference. I think the “xG” measure is dangerously flawed on a team basis, because of the way matches pan out, but it has its uses and one of them is to assess a specific player’s overall performance - Pukki’s scoring as many as expected of him. We would hope he would exceed xG, but he’s not doing badly. So as he’s not been injured (you rightly pointed that out earlier), missing out on buying a top drawer striker hasn’t really hurt us at all. The problem is in midfield and in the structured play. We don’t create any goals, despite being good Championship scorers. The shift to a defensive mentality, without the players or the brutality, has simply meant we’ve tried to cover up our weaknesses rather than playing to our strengths, and ended up achieving neither. I think Smith’s a decent manager, he could well come good with us, but it was the wrong decision at the wrong time to boot Farke and bring Smith in for the reason above.
My feeling is we may as well try out several of the under-23s now and also give Tzolis and Sorensen a proper chance to see if they might be good enough for the future. We're already down, so what is there to lose? I doubt if that will appeal to our manager, though.
The alternative is to play Pukki and Sargent every game as we don't have a striker on the bench . If Pukki gets suspenjured then play Sargent every game like lunatics expecting a different outcome
Rupp Gilmore and sadly Normann now as well as Kabak and Gibson offer very little. Personally I would get rid of all the Billy big balls loanees and try and plug the gaps with under 23 players . Tzolis being banished to the academy is scandalous. Sorensen has been brilliant every time he's been called upon .
Krul Handley Williams Aarons Rashica Pukki They have been up to the fight and Aarons aside who will probably be sold and Williams returning will be an integral part of our squad next season. Gibson is not Premier league class he has been a liability all season. Gunn has struggled Placheta , Lees-Melou , Rupp , McLean have not been good enough Gilmore has been utterly guff Normann started brightly but he's faded possibly because we loaned an injured player. Only Kenny Rashica and Normann have scored this season from midfield . Not good enough. Idah played about 3 good games the same for Sargent Pukki huffs and puffs for the team with his record being propped up by penalties. We have no set piece takers that can score a free kick since Mario left and Dowell is missing out. Zimmermann came in last week and was woefully outclassed at this level . So out Zimmermann Williams Aarons Kabak Gilmore Normann Possible outs Rupp McLean Gibson Placheta Dowell Sargent The permanent signings will probably stick around to try and salvage their careers but the big money loaness will be sent packing . Pukki and his loyalty along with our decent youth set up may get us into the mix next season but we need to lean on our academy in favour of big money drains on the club or we will be close to bankruptcy again . Other than parachute payments I don't see many positives from this season
Our entire midfield is made up of "jack of all trades" and they really are a master of none. Everyone can defend a bit, everyone can get forward a bit. Everyone can play a pass every other game which makes you think "oh they can create a bit". But nobody in our midfield is Premier League quality at one facet of the game. We lost Skipp and clearly don't have a Premier League quality defensive midfielder. No other team plays in the Premier League without at least one midfielder you'd point to and say "he/they are the defensive mid". We do. We lost Buendia and clearly don't have a Premier League quality attacking midfielder (Rashica maybe could be if not surrounded by dross). Few teams play without a clear central attacking or creative midfielder. We do. Nobody is press resistant, nobody a midfield metronome, Normann can carry the ball forward a bit but usually does so in a way that leaves us exposed. Nobody is prepared to run beyond Pukki. Nobody can naturally deep to collect the ball from the CBs and progress it, which perhaps should have been where Gilmour fit in. I don't necessarily think it's a style problem created by Smith or Farke, it's a squad construction problem. It's like we've tried to "moneyball" recruitment and said "Skipp makes 5 tackles per game, if we sign three midfielder who all make 2 tackles more than the our current midfielders, then we'll have replaced Skipp". Except when your midfielder is 1-on-1 with an onrushing Raphinha, you find out that unsurprisingly having someone who tackles ⅓ as well as Skipp means the tackle doesn't get made. And as was said above, the focus on size and strength and speed has overshadowed the need for these players to play together. Fine, add a quick winger, or a tall midfielder - but you need to know how they fit into a tactical system and it just doesn't look like anybody does. Farke and Smith tried pretty much every system imaginable and haven't found one that makes us noticeably good at any one thing. We had maybe 180 minutes where the 4-4-2 looked good? Honestly, I'd have rather have had Tettey in the squad this season than Gilmour. What Sorensen has to do to get a run of games I don't know. Sign an actual DM instead of Gilmour or PLM, and maybe things could have worked. Or sign an actual 10 to replace Stiepermann/Vrancic and maybe we'd have had some goal threat. The last relegation at least had an identity. We're Norwich City and we play attractive passing football but we're just too young and weak for the Premier League. This relegation, we're Norwich City and we're a bunch of misfits who can't play together. And it's especially frustrating as it doesn't feel that far from salvageable. And this was a good season to try and stay up based on Watford, Burnley, Everton, etc. ....and breath.... Looking forward to next season in the Championship, I think winning promotion is going to be so much more about mentality and having a cohesive plan than anything else. Actually replace Skipp a season late by signing a proper DM (or developing Sorensen!), and add an attacking midfielder, and we're probably there. Pukki, Idah, Sargent is enough firepower. Sargent, Rashica, and hopefully Tzolis, Rowe and Placheta are enough in wider roles. Rupp, PLM, McLean, Normann (if he stays) are all perfectly fine alongside a DM in the Championship. We still have our Championship back 5 but with added depth from a fit Byram, and more developed Omobamidele, Mumba and McCallum. If Aarons is sold he'll be replaced.
@DHCanary good overview. My only doubt is I think you're a little too generous with our midfield options going into another Championship season. We're going into it lighter than i can remember. Rashica, as promising as he has been, is not Buendia 2.0 and without Skipp and Cantwell i think we're worse off than 2 years ago. IMHO, I think we're currently working with the weakest midfield we've had in a decade. Staggering after the run of promotions and PL money that we've earned over the same period.
No replacement should be required if Aarons leaves. We will still have Byram and Mumba to choose from. I would guess Rashica will want away as well, but we should get proper offers for him.(POTS in waiting, only Hanley and loaned Williams should be anywhere near him). What are we going to do with Sargent, Tzollis and Placeta? All young and supposedly ones for the future. Well the future starts next August and if they are not considered ready, ship out, possibly on loan. Rowe should now start our remaining matches, but in what position? Could be be the Buendia replacement we have all been craving. (J have not seen him play except for a few minutes a few games ago as my streams have dried up). Major surgery is needed this summer with some hard decision s to be made by SW. What of Gibson? He is currently a major liability in our defence so I would guess Odele will be ahead of him. Hopefully. Oh, and please give me at least one "like" to get me off 666.
Great post, DH. (Although I tend to agree with Hairy Mary that you may be over-estimating our midfielders a little.)
I think I'd give this view more credence if you'd said it at the start of the season. The truth is prior to the season starting most fans seemed to be of the view that overall we'd done some good business.
I still don’t think we’ve done bad business. The players we got have been generally played. It’s more that I think our resources fell short of the surgery needed. And our style of play is not going with what few strengths our squad has.
I think that the players we got in were needed, simply because we hadn't done much for two years apart from selling our best players to keep afloat. Maybe going down to reorganise is what we need. I know there is no guarantee of promotion, but we seem to have handled covid poorly as a club, hopefully we can sort ourselves out with a couple of midfield additions and a striker and I think we will be about there for next year
Whilst that's true, I think that was also based on reputations/impressions that changed once players got on the pitch. I think the impression of Normann was that we'd got our tough tackling defensive midfielder, but he's lacked the positional discipline to do that and turns the ball over too frequently. Opinions of Gilmour were based on his Chelsea/Scotland reputation which he hasn't lived up to. Kabak went from starting and looking comfortable at Liverpool to our 4th choice CB. Only Gunn, Rashica and Sargent have been roughly what we expected of them. Sargent not being clinical in front of goal was known. I think the other assumption last summer from the fans is that the club had a tactical plan. These players were going to be good individuals but also fit into a larger picture where we could continue to play to a level above the quality of individuals. But that just hasn't happened. For example, we have a key striker who thrives on through balls, but sold Buendia, isolated Cantwell, and signed crossing wingers. Nobody in the squad to provide Pukki with the service he thrives on, and also no clear plan to replace Pukki. It now looks very muddled, but at the time the assumption was that there was a tactical blueprint that we just weren't aware of. It's looked increasingly since October that there was no such plan.
The thing is we do actually have a DM in Lungi but he never gets game time, despite playing well every time he had played
Looking at our signings in the summer I thought/think we had done some good business on paper. In reality some haven't worked out but Webber doesn't have a crystal ball, the players themselves have to take a degree of blame but sometimes things just don't work out: Gunn - £2.5m - Had a tough start when he came in December but also played some good games. Future no1! Gibson - £8m - Obligation to buy from last season, over paid probably and should be behind Hanley and Omobamidele in pecking order. After forming a good partnership with Hanley last season I think we were all happy with this signing. Kabak - LOAN - He was playing at Liverpool the previous season so this signing carried a lot of optimism. Overall decent, good ball playing CB but rushes out and caught out of position too often. Gianoulis - £6m - Obligation to buy from last season, paid for by promotion, decent enough player in my opinion who should have started more games this season. Williams - LOAN - Passionate and aggressive but caught out of position too often. Not sure I would have played him so much over Gianoulis. Normann - LOAN - This signing got me most excited, he looked a strong DM type with good ball playing and ball progression skills, this showed in the early part of the season but since returning from injury he has not recaptured that form. Gilmour - LOAN - Most hyped player, Chelsea/Scotland fans were buzzing about this player and we believed the hype. Definitely a good player in there and a coup by Webber, after similar aged Skipp worked out last year how could he have known that this signing could go so badly. PLM - £3.5m - It has taken him too long to adjust to this league but he has turned out some good performances, just not often enough. It hasnt helped that there has never been a settled midfield all season, it is chopped and changed every week. Rashica - £9m - Another signing I was very excited about. Has had his injury issues this year but has probably been our one consistent attacking outlet with his direct running. Everyone would have expected a higher goal and assist contribution though. Sargent - £9m - Only 21 years old! He is only 21 years old! Big price tag for a forward who historically hasnt been prolific but he is industrious and provides the tenacity lost in the Buendia sale. I think he has progressed this season, his touch looks a lot better than the start of the season. Tzolis - £9m - We were told not to expect much from him this season, a comment which has been forgotten. He is only 19 but I think we would all have expected more. Expectations were raised by his performance against Bournemouth. Plenty of time to develop and justify the price tag. Then we have existing players that have either not lived up to previous standards or we have been without, which you cannot account for: Max Aarons - Not had a terrible season but he has not been his consistent best. Ben Gibson - He has been caught out at this level, had a decent spell at times but mostly poor Omobamidele - Played well when he came in for struggling Gibson but then has been injured for the rest of our games. Zimmermann - Injured most of the season and not good enough for this level. Mclean - As last time, he is not good enough at this level, no composure, poor going forwards and defending. CANTWELL - I think a lot of this season was riding on Todd picking up the mantle from Buendia, but his form was non existent this season and he was shipped off to Bournemouth in Jan - Who saw that coming back in August?? What was to be our creative spark was extinguished after about 3 games. I think part of bringing DS in was to try to rekindle Cantwell but for some reason that still didn't work. Dowell - I worried about him last season, far too lightweight, not athletic, shrugged off the ball. Poor whenever he has played. I saw this one coming. Idah - Wasn't given enough game time early on, DS brought him in to the starting fold and changed the system which seemed to click the side and progress looked to be being made. Then he got injured and ruled out for the rest of the season. Pukki - He has been feeding off scraps this season but, I don't know if I expect too much of him, he has looked a yard or so slower and less clinical. 8 goals this season, 3 form the penalty spot.
Agree with mo9st of this. A good summary, I don't think Pukki is slower, just worse service, maybe his finishing is a bit worse this year? He can do one more year at Championship then regardless of league we need a new striker!
I think his finishing in general has been slightly worse, especially compared to the 18/19 season. However, in that season he didn't have the pressure of knowing that if he didn't score, no-one else probably would, and that must have been a terrible psychological burden, even if only felt unconsciously. It's meant he's snatched at some chances and dithered over others, whereas in the 18/19 season he would have made more instinctive decisions. I still think he's had a fairly good season, though. We're not bottom of the league because of Teemu.
Exactly, it isn't really going to take many signings to have a competitive Championship side. I'd argue the striker could even wait another 12 months if necessary (or join on loan) if it means we get the other signings right. It's going to be an interesting summer, because we need signings who can make an immediate impact, boosting the team and solving problems, but who are also going to be able to step up if we win promotion. I was pleasantly surprised in 20/21 by how much we were able to spend in the summer, albeit largely funded by Lewis and Godfrey departing. Hopefully our bigger transfer spend in summer 2021 hasn't left us bereft of funds upon relegation this season, and we're able to do spend well this summer. But looking at summer 20/21, we signed: Hugill, Placheta, Gibson, Dowell, Sorensen, Giannoulis, Mumba, Sinani, Skipp, Quintilla. I don't think I'd call any of them flops in terms of their contributions in the Championship, but that £13m spend (and the further £14m committed to Gibson and Giannoulis) has not translated to a single player who has looked "Premier League capable" this season* , and we also look unlikely to turn a profit on any of those signings. We need to go into this summer window with a clear plan for how the team will play for the next two seasons, including if one of those seasons are in the Premier League. Obviously that's not a trivial question for Smith, Webber and Nisotaki to answer, especially when the challenges faced in each league are different. (dominating versus weaker opposition in one league, then being on the back foot frequently after promotion). The plan doesn't need to be the same in both leagues, but I think we need to know how the Championship plan evolves into a Premier League plan, rather than winning promotion and then trying an overhaul and starting the season with unfamiliar players and tactics. For example there's no point signing another creative midfielder like Dowell this summer, we've already got one and we know that he hasn't got the size and strength to step up. Use Dowell in the Championship, then unless he has a 20 goal season sell him the next time we're promoted. McLean, Gibson, Zimmerman, Rupp, and possibly even Pukki fall into that category too. Tactically, I think it's fine to revert to the Farke 4-2-3-1 if we think that'll be successful in the majority of Championship games, but perhaps we need to be also establishing a 4-3-3 gameplan for tougher games and then the Premier Legaue. Certainly going to be a tricky summer, but another one that's crucial to get right. * Yes, Gibson has a role, and bringing in players for the development pipeline like Sorensen, Mumba and Placheta obviously makes sense. Giannoulis is probably the only player of that bunch we hoped would translate better to this level, and arguably could have done had we played with wing backs (was that the plan? Who knows!)
I agree that "it isn't really going to take many signings to have a competitive Championship side". Unless Krul leaves, he and Gunn are more than enough at GK with McGovern as a useful backup. Presumably Mumba will be returning, particularly if Aarons is sold. It could also be that Hugill could return and possibly Sinani as well, having had a successful loan at Huddersfield where he has scored 6 goals so far. We'll need another FB option if Aarons leaves and at least one midfielder, though a DM with PL potential would also be welcome. McLean, Lees-Melou and Sørensen can all be useful players in the Championship, with Rupp possibly staying on as well. Up front, Pukki will still be the main man but Rashica, Sargent, Placheta, Dowell, Rowe and Idah will hopefully develop further from a year in the Championship and offer much more if we were to be promoted again.
