Well i though it would be tough to find one of em but thats a 5/2, 8/11 and a 11/10 turned over and we still have 3 left...!!! Shame i havnt called any of em yet...
5.20 Kempton: TROPICS (Laid at 2.1/1) Ran an encouragind debut when 2nd but not sure how highly the form will rate. The winner was an easy winner and I suspect those in behind will be average-good handicappers at best. Godolphin must hold a mighty chance with VOLCANIC WIND if he steps forward from a narrow debut defeat at Thirsk, and FAR EAST of Clive Cox will relish the extra furlong after his debut 2nd. I just feel there is enough in the opposition to narrowly deny Tropics, who was a 66/1 on debut and perhaps will end up more of a handicap prospect.
Godolphin and De Sounsa beat him into 2nd- happy days 11 from 15 now. 73.3% strike rate, +£4.15 level stakes Profit
1.55 Curragh: Magician Laid at 0.91/1 I am so wary of Irish racing as money can so often talk but for me, there is not particularly great maiden form from the odds on favourite, and I suspect the stablemate League of Nations will run a really nice race. He has a similar sort of profile to Imperian Monarch- by Galileo but with history on the dam side of some stamina. The heavy ground and 1m startting point will be ideal. However another newcomer will also relish the rest- Duke of Marmalade colt Alive Alive Oh. BURNAIRGEAD will propose a good test also, with Bolgers horses always so battle-hardened and with a step up from 7f to 1m bound to suit, as will a switch to turf.
What do you reckon about The Art Of Racing to lay? Forecast: 11/4 The Art Of Racing, 3/1 Agerzam, 10/3 Titled Gent, 13/2 Black Monk, 8/1 Excel I reckon Titled Gent will win from Agerzam. PS. Just placed fictional bet on Titled Gent and the latest odds show him fav with The Art Of Racing now at 7/2. Maybe not so tempting now?
One i think we can have a go at today is Ivor's King at Wincanton in the 4.20... Involved in a right royal battle at Newton Abbott 2 runs ago, losing to Kayfrou by a neck over 2m1f in soft conditions, coming off a 197 day break. Then to be followed up with, albeit a 17l victory over 2m3f, it was run in really heavy conditions - which it can be at Exeter. Today's run, a 2m4f hurdle, comes only 7 days after that and the previous two runs could take a bit out of him. Plus i do think that the next 3 in the market could improve enough as well, Decimus being my pick, to push him close. Also with Stick tipping up Caulfields Venture it makes me think that Ivor's King could be took on today... Currently a 15/8, 2/1 fav... What do you think...?
Can see your thinking Red- I think it depends on how you read the opposition- can you find one or two who you think have a definite chance of winning the race?
My pick against him is Decimus, but i also think Castletown Bridge will go close also. Revani is taking a drop in class and comes here off a 207 day break... Decimus has run the distance before, as has CB and Revani, where as Ivor's King is going one furlong further than before. Its took a bit on the fact of the hard runs Ivor's had recently against the freshness of the two ive mentioned... Maybe its a watch and see race if you think its going to be tight. The money is coming for Ivor's King and he may well go off a strong fav, but its the runs he has had recently that makes me want to take him, plus the freshness of the others... We shall see...
I will hold my hand up there... Ivor's King looked strong all the way... Decimus was pushing him near the end but even without the fall at the last he wouldn't have got up... Hope you left it as a 'watch only race' Toppy...
A funny old game this Ivors King 7/4 BOG was my only Appraiseform selection today albeit a minimum bet he met a tough criteria. I couldnt see the logic in opposing him and thought he was more likely to progress rather than regress given his Exeter win was in facile fashion.
I left all racing alone today Red- didn't feel strongly about anything to lay. I do have one for Cheltenham though for today (Friday) 2.10: THE NEW ONE (Laid at 1.46/1) Has obviously been very impressive for Nigel Twiston Davies so far- including a superb bumper win at Aintree. Won easily on hurdles debut but beating trees means he is still difficult to measure. I have two horses who I think will be a big danger to him. We will start with Paul Nicholls' GRANDIOSO, owned by Graham Wylie. Took a gradual development last term and culminated in a hard fought win up at Ayr. He gets the trip and will be much stronger this season. He was given time to develop as a 4 year old last season and this might turn out to be a useful horse over 2.5 miles plus over hurdles this year. I expect a bold bid and an improved season for Graham Wylie with a number oh good animals with Paul Nicholls now. The second horse, at a stunning 8/1, is VILLAGE VIC. I think this is the horse to follow of the 3. He was always going to be outpaced in a top level bumper over 2 miles and is bred to both improve over hurdles and more importantly here improve stepped up in trip. A point winner in Ireland, he is an interesting horse to follow not only this season over the staying hurdle trips, but also when he jumps a fence next season too. Could make up into a smart one I feel, and a smashing each-way price available early at 8/1 if you are looking to back.
The lay I suggested lost Toppy. And the 2 I said I thought would beat it did so. Trouble was, they were both beaten by a 10/1 shot and the one I thought would win only got 3rd.
Was a really good shout on the Art of Racing as a lay bet Ron. Looking at the profile of the horse just now it looks just the type of horse I look to take on so I wish I'd have bloody listened to you and took it on to boost the figures
I agree with the lay of... THE NEW ONE tough race that 2.10 and far to short a price....if i was to invest i would side with GRANDIOSO.
3.05 Cheltenham: High Note (Laid at 3.9/1) On the limit of my price range rules, but I think with good reason. BABY MIX is a super hurdler and has won here before when dismantling Hinterland in an early season surprise. He travelled superbly in the Triumph before weakening out of it but in a small field where you are able to dictate you can have a much greater impact, and he will here. DODGING BULLETS is one of the best novice hurdlers left and with any improvement on last years first two starts, he must have a good season ahead in the novice hurdle ranks.
