Thats it, comes down to what price the customers are willing to get involved at, and of course, the customers are not stupid(not all of them anyway!) they will anticipate and wait for the price to go out. Its a game of nerves as well, as we all know, trying to get the best possible price, you are scared to miss what you think is already good price but it might go out a bit more, or it could go back in and youve missed it. Whatever price they go out to, 5/2, 3/1, I think it will be a good bit shorter at the off. I was thinking about doing it for this race! but really the only price im strongly against is Taghrooda so it would only be me vs Taghrooda backers. Maybe do it at Goodwood or York, see if there is enough fancied ones I want to take on. Need to remember never refuse an accumulator! A few of the hotpots won and while the bet didnt change the result, I was already beat, bobs initial bet was a loser, he wanted the 3 miler in and I said no, would have beaten the bet.
You have a wonderful tone about you Boris. Complete bollocks of course but each to their own. Real punter...
single figures e/w - punting with stabilizers/safety net/crash helmet/kneepads as you say, each to their own, not for me I suffer on price because bookies are wary of the filth give the filth their own place market and give us a price to win
Evening all, looks like there is a genuine Group 1 race in the making on Saturday and that is great for the King George. Finally a race where there is genuine competition, good quality, and a chance of value as a betting proposition. Well done to John Gosden (for sending 3 candidates) and to the Sheikh, sending Taghrooda and Mukhadram. The only concern I have in this race is pace. A lack of pace is the one thing that turns this into a circus so hopefully they will go a right old clip. Magician is best off a strong pace (see Breeders Cup Turf win( so hopefully Hall Of Mirrors goes a good clip. Taghrooda is easily the most impressive filly in Britain this year and won the Oaks like her father won his Derby. She is a class act but her formlines look questionable so I see why people are split on her. Her father always used to get people looking for ways to get him beat and she looks just as unfussy, winning well and just looking a very good all-round racehorse. Magician and Telescope are going to be giving away serious weight (12lb to the colts, 15lb to Taghrooda)- if any of the 3 year olds are top class then they should win. Mukhadram much the same, and the only way he will win is if he gets a soft lead, dictates perfect fraction and steals it, and even then there are stamina questions. The Eclipse was a farce. Magician was only narrowly ahead of a well below par Treve and The Fugue beat him convincingly. He didn't look at his best around Ascot. So, receiving 12lb, and hoping that Romsdal- who is 50s+ on the exchanges-will also make a fierce pace to make use of his own stamina- I come to EAGLE TOP 6/1. You read things like 'he beat trees' at Ascot in the King Edward but I have seen it all before with horses winning that race. In 2011, Nathaniel beat Fiorente 5L and had Genius Beast in behind- good horses but not Group 1 form, but when you put high level performances in at Ascot they tend to repeat. Think Nathaniel (Form 112 over 1m 4f at Ascot), Yeats, So You Think (POW form 21), Sea Moon (3L Hardwicke winner, running on 5th in King George beaten 2L). He and Western Hymn were both due to line up LTO and Buick chose this fellow despite a surprise handicap defeat on second start, as he was so impressive in his maiden. He looks on the up, progressive, and brings in an interesting 3 Y O formline. He beat Adelaide 3.5L last time and frankly could have won by 7- Buick took a pull once he got alongside to straighten him out. He stays strongly (like all Gull Wings progeny do) but this one has gears off a strong pace. Adelaide IMO is AOBs 2nd best 3 year old colt this season, and he was narrowly beaten by Free Port Lux (despite a tough trip up the inside rail) and had Grand Prix De Paris winner GALLANTE back in 3rd. (Free Port Lux was a running on 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris) He is a very good horse and Eagle Top showed a difference between a good Group 2 horse and what a Group 1 middle distance horse looks like. If they set a hot tempo I think Eagle Top wins this race. I would have imagined that Eagle Top would have been in line for the St Leger as the long-term target but he has shown the class and the gears to be supplemented for this race at a cost of £75,000 for Lady Bamford, and I suspect Romsdal will be the one headed to Doncaster later this year whilst Eagle Top has a crack at the Arc. Receiving such a massive amount of weight the only thing to beat him in my opinion is a slow tempo, so we will have to see how it goes on Saturday.
Bookmaker Sportingbet are offering a fantastic price boost for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday – 5/1 about favourite Telescope. Join Sportingbet, place a bet of up to £30 on Telescope to win the King George and get hugely enhanced odds of 5/1. The max bet you can make on this is £30. http://www.racingtips.com/category/promotions/get-the-telescope-price-boost-201407230001/
Only the 100 first bets made will qualify for the enhanced odds. Does this mean only 100 people can do it and then they stop it? I never bother with these types of offers because normally its like £10 or £20 max and I cant be bothered with the hassle of jumping through hoops, backing with some new bookies that you have no experience with, getting paid 48 hours later and not seeing the enhanced price when you actually bet it. But this one seems worth it, would have to double check once registered whether its still available as I dont see that taking too long to get a 100 takers, if thats how it works.
Hadn't really considered Eagle Top, and he may not even run, but: His win at Ascot on GF going was fast by 0.92s carrying 9.0 Telescope's win at Ascot on GF going (following day) was fast by 1.45s carrying 9.1 However, on Saturday Telescope would be set to concede 12lb to Eagle Top (if he runs). On good ground or quicker 6l per second is used so we can say that Telescope's run equated to (roughly) 3l better than Eagle Top's Now using the 1.5lbs per length (over 12f), 11lbs would equate to 8l. So, theoretically, if both horses were going as fast as they could and neither had improved more than the other, bla bla bla, Eagle Top should beat Telescope by 5l. Can't see that happening but it makes one wonder why one is 3 times the price of the other and, if Eagle Top runs, it will do nothing to enhance my confidence in Telescope.
That's what I am hoping Ron - Backed it earlier in the week, the confidence behind him at Ascot told you Old boy Gosden (as Barney would say) thinks he has got something special.
Cheers Jo. I remember reading that now. That is interesting and does suggest that a stronger gallop will suit Telescope. Does Telescope appear physically stronger? The question is, if Eagle Top had been carrying 11lb less in that race, I wonder what the times would have shown.
I think when you are getting to this sort of class, a horse can only run as fast as it can run, 11 pounds isnt going to stop one of those beasts from hitting top speed, it could tire them out quicker but Telescope will only be carrying 6 pounds more than in the Hardwicke, shouldnt really effect him at all. The question is whether carrying 5 pounds less is going to make Eagle Top find half a second in the final 3f and I highly doubt that it will. I also doubt that he will get such a scenario where he can pick up the pieces comfortably when the race collapses after suicidal fractions. Had Eagle Top been in the Hardwicke with the King George weights, I think Telescope would have been long gone, he would have ran on for 2nd though. Im just expecting him to get caught flat footed and maybe stay on late past beaten horses on Saturday, hes a good horse and fully entitled to run but I think he is a bit below the level required to win this. WFA is there for a reason, in a race like this, at this time of the year, tough 1m4 against older horses, the 3yos need the weight allowance to have any chance. If it was such an advantage there might be more than three 3yo winners in the last 15 years. Its a 4yo's race really, these days anyway.
Missed that one – are you sure it was not one of those online bookie offers that they use virtually every week to try and get people to sign up new accounts with them? At some point in the future, Boris, I will explain the mathematics to you and you will see that this is not actually true. You must have seen on the TV and in the results where the “percentage” on a race is quoted and you will see that it is usually somewhere between 101 and 115 (if you are in Ireland it is often towards the higher end of the scale). Each-way betting is mathematically a mug’s game. The only time I bet each-way is when the horse is 12/1 or more at a quarter the odds or 16/1 or more at a fifth the odds because you have to lose you win stake on a placed horse so a 12/1 second at a quarter the odds is actually Even money. I assess the race and decide what odds my selection should be and then go looking for them. If I think it should be 3/1 and it is 9/4, I will wait to see if it drifts and I will take 3/1; otherwise, no bet. If I think it should be 5/1 and it is 8/1 and from an unfashionable stable, I might leave it to S.P. as there is every chance it will drift; but I am more likely to just take the 8/1 (as it has good form) – if it drifts out to 10/1, I have lost out but what actually matters is that it wins because a 6/4 loser pays as much as a 33/1 loser. Yes – as I stated above, there is always some small print that they only tell you when you are punter 101 and you did not get the enhanced odds but you have helped them balance their liabilities.
Could not have put it better myself. I think that there is every prospect of there being a pacemaker (or two). Jim Bolger has Leitir Mor entered and Aidan O’Brien has Hall Of Mirrors, neither of whom look to be good enough to run on merit. I could put forward the time-honoured argument of “she could only beat the opposition that faced her”. As a member of the Taghrooda fan club that will be the one I will be using when she hopefully wins and it is hopefully an excuse-free race without any of the mishaps of recent runnings. I cannot see Romsdal showing up and if he does I do not see him being sacrificed as a pacemaker for the stable’s other runners given his prominence in the St Leger betting. Good luck – here’s hoping for a cracking race and a photo finish between the two three year olds!
I have 13/2 about TAGHROODA QM and I alerted everyone to the plan while the price was still there (although PNkt) beat me to the punch by seconds. I have the ticket and happy to have a bit of value although I am far from convinced that I am on the winner. In Telescope, Taghrooda and Eagle Top I see three horses that won for me last time out. I wouldn't be confident about splitting them and I know the boy Buick is confident his mount will beat the filly. A great race in prospect and I hope one of the three year olds can triumph (especially if its the filly).
Stick, I am delighted somebody got on – whether you were one of the first hundred, thousand or however many people they actually allowed. I have some sympathy with William Buick as his choice was no choice at all because Paul Hanagan would have to have some mishap – and presumably Dane O’Neill as well – before he got the leg up on the Oaks winner. I have no problem with him exuding confidence in his mount because we have seen what the horse did at Royal Ascot so it is not hype. I was at Sandown for the Eclipse and (no disrespect to Mukhadram) I was underwhelmed by the race. At Ascot on Saturday I want to see a cracking, competitive race or something win by a street like a true champion.
