I am surprised on this thread that there has been no mention of the jockeys. I assume that Ryan Moore will be riding Telescope. This for me catapults his chances from being very good to outstanding. seems to be available at 7/4 which looks a good price. Will this be shortened on the day do you think?
Hes 2/1 just now with a few and probably 9/4 or 5/2 on the day. The one price that is wrong just now is Taghrooda, she should drift out to at least 7/2 - 4/1, market has the others about right and I dont see any other major changes, Magician may be a point or two bigger than current price. I think closer to the race people will start to realise Telescope is a goodthing and he could get smashed up later in the day. Mukhadram might end up being a stupid looking price for a horse coming in off winning the Eclipse but seems we all agree he wont stay.
I am not sure of Telescope in that he has one solitary piece of form which is his last ascot race. It was very impressive but before that he had disappointed on many occasions in easier races. He could be the new Harbinger in as much as a late improver who has taken his time to mature into his earlier potential, or he could be short of top class. I am tempted to stay out as a betting proposition but feel Eagle Top is too big and have backed him. I will not be too disappointed however if Tagroodah wins convincingly however as I have a soft spot for her having backed her twice and won already this year.
I'm fairly confident that we don't have another Harbinger. Telescope does not have such a solid pedigree and Harbinger had impressed before his excellent win in the Hardwick. So I think he is a little behind where Harbinger was at this stage. All the same I think he will win with a bit to spare unless Taghrooda turns out to be as outstanding as Dahlia and Pawneese, which would appear unlikely based on form so far.
For a third favorite trained by one of the most successful trainers of all time it's pretty mad Magician hasn't got a mention yet. Very similar lines of form with Telescope and seems as ground dependent. Will love the quick ground and the trip should be fine being a Breeder's Cup Turf winner. Not saying I fancy him, I don't have any strong views on the race and wouldn't be surprised should their be a turn up but an O'Brien horse in a Grade One becoming a 'dark horse', crikey
Eddie I'm being very tongue in cheek with my critique of the event. As for being race of the season,not sure as it hasn't even been run yet..POW was obviously better on ratings. Re Australia,it would have been nice to see him run but 12f is not his optimum trip imo and as an Epsom Derby winner has nothing to gain by running in this.International is the preferred route and why not. Magnier wanted to run the colt in front of it's home crowd and support his local race and the Arabian sponsors. Political decision as much as anything.
cool dex, im probably being overly defensive of flat racing as per the script Prince Of Wales probably has to be considered the best so far because look at the first 4 horses, that said, Treve was not right and The Fugue was tailed off in the Eclipse next time. This looks a deeper race, 5 Group 1 winners including 2 of the 4 from that Prince Of Wales, with two who look potential Group 1 in Telescope and Eagle Top. Its hard to really dismiss any of the 7 so will be tough race, but I expect Telescope to destroy them, posting a 130+, and I think the Arc market will have no choice but to react. If anyone had told me I would be considering Telescope for the Arc after the Gordon Richards id have thought they were mental, but I was very impressed with him at Ascot. Hes not my typical type of Arc horse, he would need his ground and a good draw/trip. But with serious question marks about Treve being the same horse, I couldnt have Australia for it, Just A Way stamina doubt and not quite convinced the German 3yo is as good as he looked so there isnt many more options, im expecting Taghrooda to vacate the market after this race.
Boris' why do you feel Telescope will destroy them? What has happened to him before Ascot to bring about a huge improvement? I am not saying this won't happen but I always try and go on form for group races and It was like a different horse at Ascot to the one we had seen before. I am left with two possibilities which is that Stouty has found the key at last or the form of the Ascot race is bad. I really do not know which way to go of the two explanations but I do know that horse at Royal Ascot was different to every other performance he has put in by a mile if we take it on appearances alone.
I dont think anything has happened to improve him before Ascot, I think its just a case of him getting his optimum conditions for the first time this season, 1m4 on fast ground. He has had two runs with those conditions and won two group 2s. I know its a cliche but Stoute is a master with these types, a horse like that might have run in 2 or 3 Group 1s by now if he was trained by someone else, but after getting injured before the Derby, he has been allowed to come back and mature in his own time without being over-faced, starting back in a conditions race, then Group 3, Group 2. I think as a 4yo he is now the finished article, and comparisons with Harbinger are not hard to make, like Harbinger he will be making his Group 1 debut in the King George with a rating of 123, having run in two Group 3s and a Group 2 in three starts as a 4yo. If like Harbinger, those two Group 3s had been over 1m4 on nice ground, its likely that he would also be unbeaten for the season going into the race. But his first two runs were over a trip on the short side for a horse who clearly stays the 1m4 very well, and with that in mind, it has turned out be no disgrace to get beaten by the improved and subsequent Group 1 winner Noble Mission in his ideal conditions, 1m2 on soft ground. Obviously with the early hype around Telescope, he was starting to look disappointing, but Ascot was d-day for him as Moore said in his column "It is time for the real Telescope to stand up and be counted", and he stepped up in no uncertain terms. He beat 2 horses who went on to run close 2nd and 3rd in G2 Princess of Wales on their next starts, 5 lengths back in 4th was the improving Arab Spring who had earned a rating of 112 after destroying a handicap off top weight at Ascot, which suggests it was solid Group 2 form. Telescope beat them 7 lengths, he outclassed them, and if you are outclassing Group 2 horses in that style, its pretty obvious you are a Group 1 horse. In Hillstars previous two runs over the 1m4 at Ascot, he won the G2 King Edward and was 5 3/4 lengths 3rd to Novellist in a track record King George. In my opinion, despite having not yet run in a Group 1, Telescope now has the best form in the race, I have not seen a stronger performance, visually or substance wise from anything he faces in this race. It was eerily similar to the fashion in which Harbinger won the Hardwicke, and if like him, he was just peaking as a horse, its not outwith the realm of possibility that he can step up on that again and post the performance of his life, both horses were made for this course and distance.
Joe, you sound like me arguing the case for Harbinger 4 years ago. I don't feel so confident as I did with Harbinger but I'm fairly confident. I'll be very surprised if he can turn in a performance quite like Harbinger but I agree with what you say. From a betting perspective, the main problem is that Telescope is only half the price Harbinger was.
Telescope's price is based purely on one run rather than his entire profile. Secondly if the trainer hadn't trained Harbinger and that pompous oaf Harry Herbert hadn't have been chatting rubbish about him all last year I think we'd be seeing a truer price to his chances. Currently an easy enough to back 9/4 favourite, probably get 3/1 on the day I certainly wouldn't be steaming in on him yet. As we all know a lot of 'goodthings' do get beat in this race, Workforce, Cirrus, even Nathaniel was pretty short, all beat just in the last few years.
He is priced up on his best run which happens to be his most recent and over the course and distance in similar conditions, makes sense.... Im pretty sure his overall profile has been taken into account as well with it being so similar to a horse like Harbinger who won the race recently from the same connections. True price is opinion, my opinion is the true price is 6/4. I expect 5/2 on the day, hopefully you are right about 3/1. Didnt fancy any of those you mentioned.
Fair enough Boris but I doubt anyone with any semblance of value in their betting would touch him at 6/4 hence bookies pushing him out to 9/4 which we both agree will only get bigger... Hope he passes his drug test after the race!
Its e/w filth like you that are killing the price for real punters who bet on the nose! wish the bookies would have win and place markets, fairer for everyone, well everyone but them.
Again, its your opinion of what you think the true price is which determines whether its value to you or not, to me 6/4 would be a fair price, because thats the price I think it should be. 2/1 is great value in my mind, 5/2 or 3/1 is even better. My opinion could be off of course.
What can you do? obviously Harbinger turned out to be great price because he won like a 1/3 shot. Thats why these Group 1s are a great game, you can get unbelievable prices about some stonecold goodthings, not saying I thought Harbinger was a goodthing, I didnt even back him, I mean in general. I love it when I think something is nailed on and I see loads of differing opinions on the race, this race is a good example, its a a no brainer for me, the Arc last year is another. Some of the easiest calls you make can be the best value. I hate it when I fancy one and every man and their dog thinks its nailed on, they have a tendency to get turned over and they are never value unless you are on a month before. Comes down to whether you think 9/4-3/1 is worth a bet or not. I think it will get hammered into under 2/1 before the off.
In general price is derived from the basic economics within a market, supply and demand. The fact the price is edging out suggests demand is not what the bookmakers require/expect. However I'm no expert on bookmaker's markets! I'd be severely tempted at 3/1 in the same way when Slade Power was offered at 7/2 last Saturday I wasn't refusing that price. Absolute gift for that horse. I'm coming round to Telescope, I backed him the last day, but I'm reluctant to grant him superstar status until he backs it up. If he wins I suppose it won't be a surprise, after all he's only showing himself to be the horse we were all told he was. In fairness, he NEEDS to win on Saturday or connections will look very silly after all the chances he's been given. In terms of your opinion of horse prices I do look forward to the return of Fenster Bookmakers! I hope your back in action next year again, was a crackingly funny thread (even though you forgot to pay me my 'pretendy money you sly dog!).
